Seahawks vs. Lions Monday Night Football Picks: Can Seattle Make It Three in a Row at Ford Field?
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Scott Kacsmar
- September 26, 2024
Top NFL Pick: Seahawks +3.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The NFL again has a Monday night doubleheader, and the game you’ll definitely be paying more attention to is the late one between the Seattle Seahawks (3-0) and Detroit Lions (2-1). It should be a good one in the NFC with both teams getting off to a nice start defensively.
Let’s break down the line movement and the latest NFL odds to help you make winning bets.
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions
Monday, September 30, 2024 – 08:15 PM EDT at Ford Field
But this is the 3rd season in a row where the NFL has scheduled these teams to play in Detroit in the 1st month. Geno Smith and the Seahawks have walked away with a couple of shootout wins with crazy final scores of 48-45 and 37-31 (overtime).
Does either team really look capable of scoring that much this week? Maybe the better question is does either defense look like it will be giving up that many points?
The Lions are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 46.5 points at top-rated sportsbooks. Can the Seahawks make it a 3-0 sweep in Detroit, or is the 3rd time the charm for these Lions? We have our thoughts on the matchup and our picks for the total and spread below.
Seahawks: Mike Macdonald Is Delivering as Promised
The Seahawks moved on from coach Pete Carroll after stagnant results with his defenses no longer being top 10 units for a long time. They replaced him with Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who had the No. 1 defense last season. They replaced the oldest coach with the youngest coach, but so far, it is working out as planned as the Seahawks are 3-0.
This team knew it had capable weapons around Geno Smith at quarterback to finish in that 9-8 range. But a proper defense would be the way to possibly take the NFC West back from San Francisco, and that’s what Macdonald is delivering so far.
Granted, it helps when you play against rookie Bo Nix, game manager Jacoby Brissett, and then you draw Skylar Thompson for an injured Tua Tagovailoa last week. But the Seahawks are making the most of it as they rank No. 1 in yards per drive allowed and No. 4 in points per drive allowed.
Smith has also been dealing for the offense, which has struggled to run the ball without Kenneth Walker III these last 2 games. Walker could return for this game, but Smith is throwing the ball consistently well and has completed at least 72% of his passes in each game. He has a trio of very good receivers, and DK Metcalf looks as good as ever to start this season with big plays down the field.
It’s no stretch to say the Lions are facing their toughest test yet this season in Seattle. In the last 2 meetings, Smith has completed over 76% of his passes with over 320 yards in both games, 4 touchdowns, and no picks. He’s also been sacked just once in those games, though Aidan Hutchinson is having a great start to the year for the Detroit pass rush.
But the main difference with Seattle this year is that Smith shouldn’t have to score 30 or 40 points to win a game like this anymore.
Lions: What’s Wrong on Offense?
The Lions have had an elite offense in 2022 and 2023, and they returned most of their core pieces for 2024, including offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. You could even argue they upgraded at their No. 2 wideout position as Jameson Williams has stepped up and been better than Josh Reynolds in that role. They still have Amon-Ra St. Brown, tight end Sam LaPorta, and that excellent backfield duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The offensive line is holding up too, led by Penei Sewell.
But the results just haven’t been there yet like in the past. The Lions rank No. 7 in yards per drive but only No. 17 in points per drive. That comes down to ranking No. 26 in touchdown rate in the red zone where the Lions were No. 3 a year ago. That’s too many drives stalling out near the end zone, and Dan Campbell is no stranger to going for it instead of kicking those easy 3s. The Lions just need to make more plays down there.
Jared Goff has been good for the Lions, but he’s off to a rough start in 2024 with 3 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. His 34.4 QBR is well below previous seasons where he was in the low 60s. He has been picked in every game so far, and the Lions may be just 1-2 if not for the running game taking over in overtime against the Rams in Week 1.
It’s definitely a different Detroit team than the Lions who won the NFC North last year. We’ll see if another home game with the Seahawks perks up the offense again, but remember, they’ve lost at home to this team 2 years in a row.
Seahawks vs. Lions: O/U 46.5 Points
On paper, you might think this will be another shootout with touchdowns left and right from Metcalf, Montgomery, St. Brown, etc. Maybe the 1st score of the year for Jaxon Smith-Njigba too. After all, the Lions have the same coordinators from the past matchups. Why should it change much?
Well, the NFL loves to zig when you zag on it. Not to be a party pooper, but I’m going against the grain of the past 2 matchups and focusing more on what these teams have shown us in September 2024.
Detroit has yet to score more than 20 points in regulation this season. Despite numerous drives into the red zone, the Lions couldn’t even score more than 16 points against Tampa Bay, a team that just allowed 26 points at home to Bo Nix, the rookie who dropped 16 points on 15 drives against these Seahawks in Week 1.
Sure, the transitive property does not work in the NFL, but the point is these teams are very unpredictable right now. The overall production of the Detroit offense is not great, and none of Detroit’s 3 games have gone over 46.5 points yet. They haven’t even hit 37 points the last 2 weeks, and that includes a 20-13 win over an Arizona team that scored 41 points the previous week.
This is also easily the best offense and quarterback the Seahawks have faced this year, but none of Seattle’s 3 games have gone over 46.5 points either to this point. The Seahawks have also been middling on 3rd down and in the red zone while the defense has been elite, which further makes the under look good.
The Seahawks and Lions are known for playing some whacky games on Monday nights in the Carroll era. We’ll see if that continues with Macdonald, but this feels like a 23-20 type of game that goes down to the wire rather than an egregious shootout with no one playing defense.
We already had that last week in Cincinnati.
NFL Pick: Under 46.5 (-107) at BetOnline
Seahawks vs. Lions (-3.5): Who Covers the Spread?
Maybe call it a hedge, but while we went against the grain on the total, let’s go with a repeat on the spread and back the Seahawks to cover, if not win outright again in Detroit. Seattle is actually 6-1 in its last 7 games going back to last season.
Dan Campbell covers the spread 68.4% of the time since 2021, by far the best in the NFL, but the Seahawks have been a rough opponent for his Lions. We said the Lions have the same coordinators, but the Seahawks bring a different look with their coaching staff. Maybe Macdonald has some looks Goff and company won’t be ready for.
What do we usually do back in the NFL? The team with the better quarterback and defense. Right now, that should be Seattle with Smith outplaying Goff, and the Seattle defense is doing a great job for Macdonald. We also take home-field advantage less seriously this decade, especially for a team that has already won 2 years in a row at Ford Field.
It is understandable for the Lions to still be favored at home, but I like the value in trusting Seattle to cover a 3.5-point spread for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Seahawks +3.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
