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Red Sox vs. Rays Free MLB Picks and Odds Breakdown (Archive)
The Boston Red Sox will look to widen the gap in the division race as they get set to close out their three-game battle at Tropicana Field against the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday night. Let’s see where the value is at top sportsbooks.
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, June 24, 2021 – 07:10 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
Tampa Bay dropped its seventh consecutive contest on Tuesday night, falling 9-5 in 11 innings versus the Red Sox. The loss puts the Rays 1.5-games back of Boston in the American League East race with a 43-31 overall record. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are suddenly trending up after winning five of their last seven contests. Boston enters play on Wednesday with a 44-29 overall mark, the second-best record in the American League.
Can the Red Sox Finish Series With a Win?
Boston is scheduled to finish off its series in Tampa Bay with veteran right-hander Nick Pivetta, who has been bitten by the long ball over his last three starts. Pivetta said that he had a good feel for his stuff in his last outing against the Kansas City Royals but was undone by a three-run home run in a tough-luck loss. He gave up just three runs and struck out six batters in five innings of work on the night.
After a strong start to the season, the Red Sox right-hander suddenly owns a 4.36 ERA to go along with a 6-3 overall record in 14 starts. He’s gone 0-3 with a 5.66 ERA in four June starts while allowing six home runs during that span.
Despite his recent struggles, the 28-year-old in the midst of the best season of his MLB career. Pivetta has fanned a career-high 10.41 batters per nine innings of work, thanks in part to renewed confidence in his fastball. The veteran righty has increased his velocity by an average of two miles per hour this season. His heater is currently clocking in at 94.8 mph, tying the highest average fastball velocity of his career.
Pivetta has only made one career start against the Rays. He made his 2021 debut against them, tossing five shutout innings of two-hit ball back on April 5. Per Baseball Savant, current Rays are batting only .120 in 30 plate appearances off of the Red Sox righty ahead of Thursday’s series finale.
New Ray of Sunshine
The MLB’s top prospect, Wander Franco, delivered a performance to remember in his big league debut with the Rays on Tuesday. The 20-year-old launched his first career home run in the fifth inning, hitting a 362-foot three-run dinger off of Red Sox lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to tie the game. Franco finished the game 2-for-4 with a walk, home run, and three RBIs in the 11-inning loss. Prior to being called up, he was hitting .315 with seven home runs and 35 RBIs in 39 Triple-A games.
The Rays have yet to officially announce a starter for Thursday’s contest. However, veteran right-hander Michael Wacha is expected to get the call for the final series of their divisional battle against the Red Sox. If he gets the call, Wacha will take the mound in search of better results after being knocked around for five runs on 11 hits in just 3 ⅔ innings of work during his last start against the Seattle Mariners.
The Rays’ right-hander has spent time alternating between the starting rotation and the bullpen this season but hasn’t been able to find his form in Tampa Bay. In 12 games (eight starts), he is 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA.
The 29-year-old has struggled in his first season in Tampa Bay despite walking just 2.49 batters per nine innings of work, the second-lowest walk rate of his career. While Wacha has experienced some bad luck, he’s also struggled to miss bats at the same rate as in years past. He’s struck out a career-low 6.65 batters per nine innings of work this season while posting a 6.70 xERA. In two career starts against the Red Sox, Wacha is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA.
The Pick
Tampa Bay has been in a funk for nearly two weeks and that continued again in the series opener on Tuesday. The Rays have averaged just 3.6 runs per game during their seven-game slide and will likely need to generate a little more offense than that to remain competitive if Wacha does indeed get the call.
On the other hand, Pivetta seems to be due for some positive regression after going 0-3 ith a 5.66 ERA in four June starts. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in three of those four starts despite allowing six home runs during that span. For your picks, take the Red Sox to close out this series with a win at Tropicana Field on Thursday evening.
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