Important game in the AL East on Monday as the Tampa Bay Rays host the Boston Red Sox in an ESPN national TV matchup. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated books? This is the first of an ESPN Monday night MLB doubleheader with Braves-Dodgers the late game. Check out our preview of that one as well at BMR.
Monday, August 30, 2021 – 07:10 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
The Rays continue to lead the AL East by a comfortable margin over the Yankees and are -310 favorites to win it at BMR’s top-rated books. The Red Sox aren’t winning the division but are right in the wild-card race. I project them to earn the second spot in the AL over the likes of the A’s, Mariners, or Blue Jays. The Yankees will get the top spot – a Yankees-Red Sox wild-card game. That will be fun.
Tampa Bay leads the season series against Boston 7-5 and is 5-1 at home, winning by an average score of 5.5-3.5. Rookie sensation Wander Franco is batting .324 vs. the Sox this year with two homers, two doubles, two triples, and 11 RBIs. Brandon Lowe is 11-for-38 with four homers and nine RBIs. All-Star catcher Mike Zunino also has four homers – he basically either homers or strikes out against every team.
Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts is 19-for-44 (.432) against Rays pitching this year with two homers and nine RBIs. Hunter Renfroe is batting .313 with three homers and 13 RBIs. The total on the MLB odds has gone over in seven of the last nine meetings at Tropicana Field.
The Red Sox have begun 13 consecutive days in 3rd place in the AL East, after starting every day from April 8 through Aug. 17 in either first or second place. Believe it or not, under the current 10-team playoff format, which began in 2012, the Red Sox have never played in the wild-card game. That seems impossible.
The Sox are in the midst of a minor COVID issue as infielder/outfielder Enrique Hernandez, infielder Christian Arroyo and strength coach Kiyoshi Momose all have landed on the COVID list. Hunter Renfroe (25 HRs, 77 RBIs) spent the weekend on the bereavement list (his father died after a four-year battle with cancer) but might be back for this one. Players on the bereavement list must miss a minimum of three games and a maximum of seven.
It’s scheduled to be right-hander Nick Pivetta (9-6, 4.57) on the mound here. He was terrific through about mid-May but has largely come crashing back to earth. In his past two starts, Pivetta has allowed a combined 10 runs over 5.1 innings and Boston lost both. He still leads Red Sox starters in opponents’ batting average (.232), is second in WHIP (1.31) and third in strikeouts (145).
In three starts against the Rays in 2021, Pivetta is 1-1 with a 1.65 ERA in 16.1 innings. Tampa batters are hitting a scant .094 off him. Brandon Lowe is 1-for-4 off him with a homer, the only active Rays player to go yard off Pivetta career.
The Rays gave trade acquisition and DH Nelson Cruz the day off Sunday in Baltimore but he should be back in there for this one. The likely future Hall of Famer has nice numbers overall (.270, 26 HR, 70 RBIs) but batting just .186 over his past 15 games. Outfielder Manuel Margot also got Sunday off but should be in Monday’s lineup.
Tampa enters on a seven-game winning streak after finishing a sweep of the horrid Orioles. The franchise already has clinched a fourth straight winning season and the 10th winning record in club history, all in 14 seasons since 2008. They are 34 games over .500, which ties a franchise record set in 2008.
It’s young right-hander Luis Patino scheduled to pitch tonight. The Rays want to somewhat limit his innings considering he only threw 17.1 innings last year in the majors as a rookie and is up to 81 this year between the minors and majors. Thus, he’s on extra rest here after last pitching Aug. 21 vs. the White Sox and getting the win, allowing two runs over six. The six innings tied a career-high. Patino only walked one after walking a combined 15 over his previous five.
Patino’s lone start vs. the Red Sox was Aug. 10 at Fenway where he allowed four runs and six hits over six innings in a no-decision. All four runs came on home runs: A solo shot by Rafael Devers and a three-run dinger by Hunter Renfroe.
Boston is just 4-11 on the MLB odds in its last 15 road games and 3-12 in its last 15 overall vs. teams with a winning record, so we have to lean the Rays for our MLB picks.
MLB pick: Rays -130 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.