MLB Pick: Pirates ML (-111) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s game between the Red Sox and Pirates.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Pittsburgh.
If you’re considering placing bets on these matchups, continue reading for a detailed analysis.
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Saturday, April 20, 2024 – 04:05 PM ET at PNC Park
Kutter Crawford’s Season So Far
Boston starts Kutter Crawford for this game. While Crawford has undeniably improved relative to last season, I find that his ongoing success is unsustainable.
It is absurd for someone’s ERA to drop as many points as it has – it was 4.04 last season, and it is an unsustainable 0.42 right now. There is no question that he will struggle in some start. It is only a matter of when. In terms of velocity, spin rate and movement, some of his pitches have even declined relative to last year.
The point is that he has not magically morphed into some divine phenom, and his ERA is going to reflect that at some point.
Key Advanced Statistic
Pittsburgh is just the team to hit Crawford hard today. The key statistic here is xSLG.
Baseball has luck involved in that a batter can fail to get a hit despite doing everything that a batter needs to do. Looking at xSLG, when it is very distinct from a team’s slugging rate, creates great opportunities for coming up with a sneaky good bet.
Pittsburgh’s seventh-best, .464 xSLG against Crawford’s pitches from righties indicates its ability to hit them. One must expect the hits to finally come.
The afternoon is just the time for these hits to come because Pittsburgh is very much a day team. The Pirates’ BA jumps .53 and their slugging rate increases .135 in day games relative to night ones.
Mitch Keller
Pittsburgh starts Mitch Keller today. Keller enters today’s game having recently found his form.
He has allowed two runs in both of his last two starts, enduring six innings against Detroit and seven innings in Philadelphia. Going back to last year, he has been dominant at home, where he has allowed a combined total of three runs in his last four starts, despite facing tough lineups.
Although, while Boston is tough, it repeatedly struggles to follow one good output – which it achieved last night – with another.
MLB Pick: Pirates ML (-111) at BetOnline
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