Two lefties will take the hill this Friday when the New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays. Only one of them will beat the MLB odds.
Friday, October 1, 2021 – 7:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
It’s nitty-gritty time for the New York Yankees. After taking two of three games from the Toronto Blue Jays, the Yankees (91-68, minus-0.60 betting units) are on the verge of clinching the first Wild Card spot in the American League. There’s just one problem: Their last series of the regular season is against the best team in the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays (98-61, plus-17.60 units). Yikes.
The MLB odds for Friday’s series-opener have yet to hit the board at press time, possibly because they were waiting for Tampa Bay to choose their starting pitcher. However, the Rays were listed as +100 road dogs on the overseas lines, and that figures to be a value bet if our preferred online sportsbooks follow suit on this coast.
If the Yankees do reach the postseason, let’s hope we see more of Nestor Cortes Jr (3.77 FIP). The Cuban junkballer has been the surprise savior for New York this year, filling in when the rotation was depleted by injuries and leading the Bombers to 11 wins in his 15 starts, with the Under at 12-3. That Under record is notable considering Cortes rarely goes deep in games. He does have the support of his bullpen, which ranks third in the majors at 7.1 WAR (as per FanGraphs). But what happened to all those Yankee hitters?
Injuries. Even though Cortes didn’t make his first start until July 4, after New York already had 1B Luke Voit and several others back in the lineup, the Yankees haven’t provided much juice at the plate. They’re No. 12 overall in hitting value (11.3 WAR) since that date, up a shade from No. 16 beforehand. And the injury bug is back with a vengeance: Voit (.764 OPS) is out indefinitely with inflammation in his left knee, and OF Joey Gallo (.720 OPS), who was hit by a pitch on Wednesday, is listed as day-to-day after X-rays on his forearm came up negative.
Tampa Bay have had trouble lately filling out their own rotation, but they finally decided to go with a southpaw of their own this Friday – and it’s their No. 1 starter, at least according to ESPN’s depth charts. Shane McClanahan (3.35 FIP) sits atop their rotation now that Tyler Glasnow is gone for the season, and he’s earned that spot, but McClanahan has the Rays 1.02 units in the red on a team record of 13-10. That’s despite the second-best bullpen in the majors (also 7.1 WAR, but slightly ahead of New York), and the No. 3 batting order at 28.6 WAR.
Be that as it may, FiveThirtyEight added up all those numbers, and their computers have Tampa Bay winning Friday’s game 52 percent of the time, so we’re content to recommend them at +100 or better for your MLB picks – even if Cortes has cost us more than once this year. The Rays have clinched the AL East, too, so let’s make it a small bet just in case they take an unofficial day off, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Rays +121 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.