Monday is the Labor Day holiday in the USA and thus there are many MLB matinees. The first of the day features the Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Boston Red Sox. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated books?
Monday, September 06, 2021 – 01:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
The first game of an ESPN doubleheader on the Labor Day holiday. It’s actually the second straight Monday that I have previewed a Rays-Red Sox game. Last week, we backed Tampa Bay at home and it won 6-1.
This one starts a three-game series, the last time the clubs will meet this year barring in the postseason, which is certainly possible. Tampa Bay is going to win the AL East short of one of the biggest collapses in baseball history. Some books aren’t even offering MLB futures odds at this point for that division.
Boston is in good shape for a wild-card spot, and we might be looking at a Yankees-Red Sox wild-card game, which would be epic. Just a matter of which team would host it. Oakland and Seattle also are in the mix.
The Rays lead the season series 9-7. They are 15-5 on the MLB odds in their past 20 in Boston. The total has gone over in 12 of the past 16 there.
Monday starts a nine-game road trip for Tampa Bay, its longest remaining of the season. It may have clinched the AL East by the time it plays back at Tropicana Field on September 16th. Outfielder Randy Arozarena remains the -165 favorite at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks to win AL Rookie of the Year.
The Rays have had three winners of that award, the last Wil Myers (now with San Diego) in 2013. That’s a pretty impressive number considering the franchise hasn’t been around all that long. Another impressive rookie, shortstop Wander Franco, was briefly in the concussion protocol over the weekend but is back. He’s going to be a superstar.
On Sunday, the Rays had another impressive streak end: They had held a multi-run lead at the conclusion of 17 straight innings in their series vs. the Twins. On the flip side, the Rays’ 42 come-from-behind wins to lead the majors. They are 54-14 when scoring first, though.
Because these are the Rays, one can never be 100 percent sure who the starting pitcher will be, but the primary guy Monday is expected to be lefty Ryan Yarbrough (8-4, 4.50). He got a win last Tuesday vs. Boston, allowing two runs and five hits over six innings – Red Sox fans may remember that game as the one in which All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts was pulled in the second inning after a COVID test came back positive.
Yarbrough hasn’t personally lost since July 19th. He’s 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in 18.0 innings this year against the Red Sox, who are hitting .303 off him collectively. A lot of that offense came in his lone start at Fenway way back on April 7th when Yarbrough allowed nine runs in five innings. Red Sox DH JD Martinez absolutely hammers his career, going 13-for-24 with two homers. So does catcher Christian Vazquez, who is 10-for-25 off Vazquez with three homers.
Tampa Bay is 17-5 on MLB picks in its past 22 road games and has won 40 of its past 54 overall on Mondays.
Boston remains very short-handed due to a COVID outbreak, with All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts, infielder/outfielder Kike Hernandez, outfielder Danny Santana, infielder Christian Arroyo, starting pitcher Nick Pivetta and several relievers all out. Santana just landed on the list Sunday. There’s never a good time for this, obviously, but the Sox are in the midst of playing 17 straight days.
All-Star third baseman Rafael Devers didn’t start Sunday’s game vs. Cleveland but it was just for rest and he’ll be in there Monday … you know, barring a positive COVID test. Devers is hitting .275 with 33 homers (career-high) and 100 RBIs. Devers has become the 13th player in franchise history multiple 30 HR/100 RBI seasons with Boston but only the second to do so before turning 25 years old (Ted Williams). Devers is hitting .246 on the season vs. the Rays with just one homer.
It’s ace lefty Chris Sale (3-0, 2.53) on the mound, his fourth start of the year after missing all of 2020 due to Tommy John surgery. Sale took a no-decision last Wednesday at the Rays, allowing two runs over six innings. Frankly, he wasn’t that great but kept getting out of trouble by inducing double plays. The innings and pitches (95) were season highs.
A few Rays have had career success off Sale. Nelson Cruz is 11-for-32 off him with two homers. Yandy Diaz is 4-for-9 with two doubles and a triple. On the flip side, All-Star catcher Mike Zunino is 0-for-14 off Sale with eight strikeouts.
Boston is 7-1 on the MLB odds in its past eight at home. Even short-handed, I have to back the Sox here because of Sale and the fact the Rays had to travel Sunday and then play the quick turnaround game.
MLB pick: Red Sox (-141) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.