The Red Sox are one win away from defeating the Tampa Bay Rays and making the ALCS. Can the Rays bullpen hold it down in Game 4 to force a Game 5 at home? Let’s see the MLB picks.
Monday, October 11, 2021 – 7:07 PM EDT at Fenway Park
The Rays are trailing the Red Sox two games to one in the ALDS. The Red Sox can move on into the ALCS with a win over the Rays in this five-game series, at home, in Fenway Park. With all hands on deck, it looks like the Rays will have a bullpen game tonight. The Rays bullpen has been one of the best in baseball but has been overworked a lot this season and throughout the playoffs.
Either way, the Rays get to face a familiar pitcher in Eduardo Rodriguez, who finished the regular season for the Red Sox with a 4.74 ERA. In the last 30 days, Rodriguez has had a 3.59 xFIP with a 27.3 percent strikeout rate and a 10.1 percent walk rate. However, due to a high line drive percentage at 23.3, Rodriguez has allowed a BABIP of .387.
His last 67 righties faced have a .349 wOBA and Rodriguez has walked 11.9 percent of righties with 43.6 percent ground balls at 25.6 percent line drives. The left-hander has really struggled against this Rays lineup previously, allowing a .300 average and OPS of .851 in 135 at-bats.
Rodriguez has also allowed seven home runs along with 13 walks and seven doubles against the Rays roster and just really hasn’t had consistent success against Tampa Bay. With the crowd behind him, the Red Sox are hoping things are different, however, the Rays have a .250 ISO and wOBA of .390 in the last 30 days against lefties. The lineup
is hitting 32.3 percent ground balls and 20.5 percent line drives against lefties in that same time frame. They’ll have at least seven righties in the lineup to face the left-hander. At this time, we do not know who will start for the Rays. However, reports are that this game will be a bullpen game, with a new pitcher every one or two innings.
The Red Sox has an ISO of .218 and wOBA of .361 in the last 30 days against righties but a .102 ISO and .280 wOBA against lefties in the last 30 days. Boston will hope to face as many righties as possible in this game.
I’ll be honest, I miss the man on the second in extra innings rule. Baseball will lose viewers allowing games to get beyond the 10th inning. Maybe the postseason will help them revisit this rule and bring it back. Either way, I love the Rays lineup and think they’ll do plenty of damage against Rodriguez like they did in Game 1 and like they’ve done all season.
This team dominates lefties and even smacked Sale around in Game 2 as well. In a must-win game for the Rays, I’ll grab them at -105 for my MLB odds.
MLB Pick: Rays -105 with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.