Rams vs. Packers NFL Week 12 Picks and Odds Breakdown (Archive)
The projections say the Green Bay Packers are a bargain on Sunday’s NFL odds board. But the Los Angeles Rams might be the smart choice to make.
The Green Bay Packers have really blown the curve this year. Thanks largely to the heroics of their lord and savior Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay sit atop the NFC North at 8-3 SU and a league-best 9-2 ATS.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers
SundSunday, November 28, 2021 – 04:25 PM EST at Lambeau Field
However, the Packers are performing at a lower level than their record would suggest; according to Football Outsiders, they’ve amassed 6.9 Estimated Wins thus far. Cheeky. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) lead all teams with 9.5 Estimated Wins heading into Week 12.
So you’d think the Rams would be the smart NFL pick for Sunday’s game at Lambeau Field, seeing as they’re 1-point underdogs at Bovada Sportsbook (visit our Bovada Review) as we go to press. But no: The projections we’re looking at either have Green Bay winning by a single point, or somewhere around four points. What the deuce?!
Aaron Go Bragh
Before we get any further, let’s triple-check whether Rodgers is active this Sunday. He surprised me (but not the oddsmakers, or anyone paying closer attention than I did) when he came back off the COVID-19 list in Week 10, and without Rodgers, the Packers are toast, so I need to get this right for all my peeps. The answer: Probably.
Rodgers does have a toe injury that he picked up somewhere, and he’s been absent or limited in practice the past two weeks, but everyone expects him to play. He wasn’t quite his MVP self during last Sunday’s 34-31 loss to the Minnesota Vikings (+1 at home), though.
And now Rodgers won’t have center Elgton Jenkins (torn ACL) protecting him – nor will RT David Bakhtiari be active just yet after coming off the PUP list (also prompted by a torn ACL) in Week 10. Take that, projections.
Frozen Turkey
I suspect the computers also haven’t fully taken into account the arrival of LB Von Miller in Los Angeles – or that of WR Odell Beckham Jr, although both men are somewhat past their prime. On the other hand, this is Thanksgiving Week, and while the tundra at Lambeau Field might not be frozen at kick-off, the forecast does call for temperatures just above the freezing mark.
That won’t be comfortable for the Angelenos. Then again, Rams QB Matthew Stafford has played in these conditions before. Twelve seasons in the NFC North with the Detroit Lions will give you ample opportunity to get used to the cold (even if Ford Field itself is an indoor stadium). And there isn’t any precipitation in the forecast, meaning any handicap L.A. will face here should be muted.
So here we are with the old-school approach (aided by analytics, in true mid-Aughts Moneyball style) saying the Rams are the right call as tiny underdogs on the NFL odds board, and the projections screaming for Green Bay. I say pick your poison for a small bet, but we’re officially going with L.A. here at the home office – and may the prolate spheroid be with us all this holiday weekend.
NFL Pick: Rams +1 (–115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.