Rafael Nadal vs. Daniil Medvedev Australian Open 2022 Men’s Final Picks (Archive)
The Australian Open began last week with a field of 128 men. Only two men remain in their quest to lift the first major trophy of the 2022 season. Daniil Medvedev is looking for his second Grand Slam victory in a row. Rafael Nadal is looking for a men’s record 21st Grand Slam title. Which man will be able to make history and be the winning tennis pick?
Rafael Nadal vs. Daniil Medvedev
Sunday, January 30, 2022 – 03:30 AM EST at Rod Laver Arena
Rafael Nadal defeated Matteo Berrettini 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 in the men's semifinals. Nadal played brilliant tennis for the first two sets but then suffered a bit of a letdown before hanging on to win in the 4th set.
Nadal had 5 aces and 2 double faults. He served 69% on the first serve and won 73% of the first service points. Where he really made his mark was to win an astonishing 63% of second serves. This was in stark contrast to Berrettini's second service point win percentage which was only 44%. Rafael Nadal won 94% of his service games and broke Matteo Berrettini 4 times.
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Overall, other than looking tired after the first two sets, it was a brilliant performance from Nadal and some of the best tennis that we've seen from him in the last couple of years. Daniil Medvedev also needed four sets to defeat his semifinal opponent.
The world #2 Medvedev defeated world #4 Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-1. Medvedev hit 13 aces and had 4 double-faults. He served 71% on his first serve and won 86% of the first serve points that he landed.
Medvedev also won an impressive 72% of his second-serve points. Medvedev was able to break Tsitsipas 4 games in 19 tries. The match was marred by an outburst at the end of the second set in which Medvedev accused Tsitsipas of receiving coaching from his father.
Most observers felt that Medvedev's claims were valid. An official was assigned to monitor Stefanos Tsitsipas’ player box and he did receive a coaching violation in the 4th set. Other than Medvedev's angry outburst, overall it was a fantastic performance for Medvedev.
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Both men are trying to make history in this match. Rafael Nadal is trying to set the record for men's singles Grand Slam titles won. He is currently tied with Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. All three men have 20 grand slam titles Nadal's win would put him in sole possession of the first place for a number of grand slam titles won in his career.
Daniil Medvedev is trying to become the first man in the Open Era to win the Grand Slam Tournament after his maiden Grand Slam win. Medvedev won his first Grand Slam title at the US Open last season, and he is trying to follow that up with a win here at the Australian Open.
No man has done that in the Open Era. Naomi Osaka was recently able to do it on the women's side, winning the US Open and then following it up with the Australian Open. Regardless of who wins this match, the winner will have made history.
I think the level of play Rafael Nadal displayed in the first two sets will be good enough to defeat Daniel Medvedev. Unfortunately for Nadal, this match is the best three out of five. In Nadal's last two matchups, his play has significantly declined in the third set.
A man who was once known for his indefatigable fitness levels is now the one whose fitness we need to be concerned with. Contrast that to Daniel Medvedev, whose play got stronger as the match progressed yesterday, as evidenced by his decisive fourth set score of 6-1. This is evidence of a young man versus an older player who needs to conserve energy.
I do believe Rafa's top-level will be a little above Medvedev’s top-level. However, Medvedev will be able to sustain his highest level of play for longer and will be closer to his top-level should there be a decisive fifth set.
My ATP pick, to win the 2022 Australian Open Men's Final is Daniil Medvedev. However, at ATP odds of -208, that is not the best bet on the board. The best bet is the over 40 games. I do think Medvedev will outlast Nadal, but I don't think it will be easy. I expect Nadal to get out to a fast start and then for Medvedev’s youthful fitness to shine through. Our final best bet is over 40.5 (-105).
Tennis Pick: Over 40.5 (-105) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.