The beauty of college basketball is that any team can win it all. With talent being spread across the country and any game being winnable by both teams, there is no way to consistently dominate with recruiting and boosters as you can in football. People are always looking for a mid-major program to turn heads in the NCAA Tournament.
Two candidates this year are the Providence Friars and the Xavier Musketeers. Providence is at the top of the Big East, but it is still too close to call with multiple teams in title contention. In this game, they’ll travel on the road to play Xavier. Both teams are ranked as of now, and both hope to win the Big East.
With three conference losses already, this is a must-win game for Xavier at home. A loss would put them at .500 in the conference with no true chances to gain ground on the teams ahead of them.
These teams are evenly matched, and hope is high on both benches. Xavier is favored by 8 points according to college basketball odds. Here are keys for each team with a pick in this game.
Wednesday, January 26, 2022 – 6:30 PM EST at Cintas Center
It may be surprising that Xavier is favored by such a wide margin, but they have an intriguing style of play that makes them hard to beat at home. They don’t rely on perimeter shooting or 50/50 plays. They don’t average a ton of points, but they play efficiently. They attack the rim and score at a high clip inside. If they don’t score, they are likely to get to the free-throw line, where they hit most of their shots.
Xavier gets stops on defense, and they rarely foul or turn the ball over. They stick to the fundamentals, and that is why they are a ranked team at this point in the year.
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To beat Providence, Xavier needs to keep the pace slow. They like to set up in halfcourt and win without big mistakes. Since they’re playing at home, this should be easy to do.
That would be enough to win, but how does Xavier cover? They need to force Providence into contested jumpers. The Friars don’t shoot many perimeter shots, but they are efficient when they do. If Xavier forces them to take bad shots outside with time running down on the shot clock, the Friars won’t be able to keep up.
Providence needs to keep from letting the crowd play a factor. Playing at home in the Big East can be challenging, and it’s harder when the home crowd is expecting a statement win. To eliminate the crowd, Providence needs to start hot. A few early buckets by Xavier to start the game can amplify the crowd, but an early run by the road team can keep them quiet.
Providence also needs to minimize Xavier’s ability to go on a run. Both teams are bound to go on runs, but low-scoring offenses can be bolstered by just one significant swing. If this game stays blow-bor-blow instead of swaying towards the home team with a big run, it should come down to the end.
Xavier won’t make mistakes often. Providence will have to capitalize on them when they do. If a player gets in foul trouble, they should attack him. If Xavier has a turnover in the field of play, Providence needs to score in transition. Being opportunistic is crucial against a fundamentally sound team, so it’s key for the Friars to cover this spread and possibly win.
Xavier will be desperate in this game, and that might be enough to get them the win at home. However, an eight-point spread is large against a quality opponent ranked above you in the AP poll. Providence is trending up, and I think they’ll come out swinging in this one.
No one knows who will come out of the Big East, but this game could go a long way in determining the winner. For my NCAAB pick, I like the Friars to keep it close and cover the spread, and an upset wouldn’t shock me in this one.
NCAAB Pick: Providence +8.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.