Portugal +0.5-140
Portugal vs. Germany EURO 2020 Picks and Expert Analysis (Archive)
After coming through a hard fought game against Hungary, Portugal will look to take control of the group of death with a win over Germany at the Allianz Arena. Portugal are the underdogs at 3.25, the draw is 3.40 and Germany are currently favorites at 2.40.
Germany vs. Portugal
Saturday, June 19, 2021 – 12:00 PM EDT at Allianz Arena
Germans Don’t Justify Favorites Tag
The disappointing 1-0 loss to France on home soil has put Germany in a difficult place as they must pick up a point at the very least here to Portugal. Ronaldo and co would like to pick up all three points here but would take a draw if given to them pre game. Germany looked poor in attack against France, and it should prove difficult for them to break down such a strong Portuguese outfit.
We can’t justify Germany’s odds at 2.40 to win this game, at best if they come away with all three points it would take a monumental effort and although they are favorites in our eyes this is much more of a 50/50 game than the EURO 2020 odds suggest. A draw might be the way to approach this game.
Germany showed their weakness at the back in their previous game with France as they allowed Mbappe to get in behind them a few times to many, luckily for them he had a goal ruled offside, Karim Benzema also had a goal ruled out and France managed to hit the post as well. France may have won 1-0 thanks to Germanies Mats Hummels scoring an own goal, but they were much the better side and deserved the win.
Portuguese Strength In Depth
Portugal have now extended their unbeaten run to 12 at the Euros since they lifted the trophy back in 2016, totalling just 5 wins along with 7 draws. Many believe, including the players and coaching staff that this Portuguese team is better than the one who lifted the trophy five years previous. Ronaldo might be getting on at bit at 36 years of age, but that hasn’t stopped him being a major presence on the field for his national team as he has netted 6 goals in his previous 8 games for Portugal.
He also has a much better supporting cast around him in this current eleven and they have much more depth on their roster than the 2016 campaign. A perfect example of this is the player who scored their winning goal in the 2016 final, Eder, was little more than a fringe player and only scored 5 goals in 35 appearances for Portugal and hasn’t been selected for the team since 2018.
Arguably their best substitute in 2016 was Ricardo Quaresma (a poor man’s Ronaldo as he has been known). When we look at their bench now, they can boast the likes of Ruben Neves of Wolves, or Andre Silva who has been scoring for fun for Eintracht Frankfurt.
Conclusion and Best Bet
Portugal are one of the best teams in the world right now, especially in terms of avoiding defeat. Sometimes they lack the sharpness upfront, but they can usually avoid defeat as they have only lost 4 of their previous 57 international matches. If given such high EURO 2020 odds on them to win then game, then we must expect them +0.5 to be good value at -140.
It’s a fair chunk of juice to lay, but your covering the draw and backing a team who have avoided defeat 92% of the time. Portugal proved their ability to win away from home last time out, whilst Germany struggled on home soil, many will argue France to be a better team than Portugal but who was it that beat them in the 2016 final? Portugal can go toe to toe with Le Blues, unlike the Germans.
Euro 2020 Picks: Portugal +0.5 at -140 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Side Bet Worth Considering
This will be a very cagey game with no quarter given throughout the 90 minutes. The first half could possibly be the most boring half of football in this Euro 2020 as the teams look to feel each other out and not make any mistakes.
We have so many superstar players on the field, ranging from Cristiano Ronaldo, Joao Felix, Kai Havertz and Timo Werner, but we believe this game will be mostly a midfield and defensive battle, therefore we can’t see many goal scoring opportunities. Look to bet on the under 2.5 goals at -120, this game screams 1-0 to either team or a 1-1 draw, heck we would take a 0-0 to cash both our best bets.
Euro 2020 Side Picks: Under 2.5 Goals at -120 with BetOnline
Under 2.5 Goals at -120
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.