Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-127)
Phillies vs. Cubs MLB Preview and Odds Analysis (Archive)
Going into the season, both the Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago Cubs were expected to win about as many games as they lose. With half of the season completed, the Phillies and Cubs have lived up to their expectations.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
Tuesday, July 06, 2021 – 08:05 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
Probable Pitchers:
● Phillies: Zach Wheeler (6-4, 2.05 ERA)
● Cubs: Alec Mills (3-2, 4.85 ERA)
Stakes of the Matchup
Currently the Phillies have a 41-42 record and are only four games behind the New York Mets in the NL East division standings. Despite winning only around half of their games, Philadelphia has a plausible path to winning their division and making the playoffs. For the Phillies to make moves in the divisional standings they need to close out the next week well, and then go on a run after the All-Star break.
The opposing Chicago Cubs are a completely different story from the Phillies. Chicago started off the season strong and for a while were in a logjam with the Milwaukee Brewers atop the NL Central. However, the Cubs are currently in the middle of an eleven-game losing streak. As a result, the Cubs has a 42-44 record and are nine games out of first place in their division.
While the Cubbies are only half a game ahead of the Phillies in the Wild Card standings, the Cubbies season is almost effectively over as they only have a 11% chance of making the playoffs according to prediction website FiveThirtyEight. For Chicago to rebound, they must start winning quickly and Wednesday night’s home game is a good opportunity for that.
Pitching Matchup
For Wednesday night’s game, the Phillies have a clear edge in starting pitching. Philadelphia is relying on Zach Wheeler who has quietly been their best starting pitcher this season. In a rotation containing Aaron Nola, Wheeler’s ascent as the ace has been a pleasant surprise for the Phillies this season. Opposing Wheeler is Alec Mills for the Cubs who is one of the weaker starting pitchers in MLB.
This season in 17 starts, Wheeler has a 6-4 record with a 2.05 ERA, and a 2.73 xFIP which are all career lows. Additionally, Wheeler has a strikeout rate of 10.97 strikeouts per nine innings which is a career high. One key to Wheeler’s success is that he is only allowing 0.55 walks per nine innings. Only SP Jacob deGrom, SP/DH Shohei Ohtani, and 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have a higher WAR than Wheeler this season as he has a 4.4 WAR. Wheeler is arguably the biggest reason why the Phillies are not in last place in the NL East.
Opposing Wheeler is Alec Mills who has not been reliable for the Cubs. In 2020 solely as a starter, Mills had a 4.48 ERA despite pitching a no-hitter. This season Mills has spent time in the bullpen, in Triple-A, and in the Cubs starting rotation. With the Cubs, Mills has a 4.85 ERA, and a 4.13 xFIP in only 42 2/3 innings. With a strikeout rate of 7.38 strikeouts per nine innings, and 3.16 walks per nine innings, Mills remains vulnerable in his starts.
Prediction
Both teams have decent lineups, But the Philadelphia Phillies should win based on their edge in the starting pitching matchup.
Even playing on the road against a team with a nearly identical record, the Phillies are the clear favorite in Wednesday night’s game. Zach Wheeler in most seasons would be a Cy Young contender and even an MVP contender if Philly made the playoffs. With a low ERA and xFIP, Wheeler’s talents making the Phillies at least -150 favorites in his appearances.
Against a mediocre Alec Mills and a mediocre Cubs team, at -127 the Phillies are the team to back for our MLB picks.
MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -127 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.