Phillies ML (+103)
Phillies vs. Cubs Free MLB Picks and Odds Breakdown (Archive)
The Philadelphia Phillies will head on the road to Wrigley Field on Thursday evening for the final game of their National League clash versus the Chicago Cubs.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
Thursday, July 08, 2021 – 08:05 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
The Phillies sit in second place in the National League standings, 4.5-games behind the New York Mets with a 41-42 overall record. Meanwhile, the Cubs have slid into fourth place in the NL Central after dropping 11 in a row. Chicago is 8.5-games back of the pace in the division race with a 42-44 overall mark.
Can the Cubs get back on the winning track with a win in the fourth and final game of their series against the Phillies on Thursday night.
The Phillies will close their four-game series in Chicago with right-hander Zach Eflin, who will take the mound in search of his third consecutive quality start. The 27-year-old tossed six innings of two-run ball in a win over the San Diego Padres in his last start to snap a personal five-game skid. Eflin has pitched better than his overall numbers might indicate, going 3-6 with a respectable 4.13 ERA in 96 innings of work. The Phillies’ right-hander has morphed into a reliable innings-eater this season. He’s turned in 10 quality starts and completed six innings or more 13 times in 16 starts.
Despite losing more than a mile per hour on his fastball, Eflin has managed to post strong peripherals on the mound this season. His strikeout rate has dropped from a career-high 10.68 K/9 to 8.34 K/9 this season but he’s also walking a career-low 1.22 batters per nine innings of work. With an xERA of 3.70 and a 3.63 xFIP, Eflin is a candidate for some positive regression moving forward. He’s been hurt by a .324 BABIP, which is high even by his standards. This will be Eflin’s first start of the season versus Chicago.
He has made four career starts against the Cubs, going 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in those matchups. Per Baseball Savant, current Cubs are batting a healthy .349 in 70 plate appearances off of the Phillies’ right-hander coming into Thursday’s series finale. Chicago will counter with right-hander Adbert Alzolay at Wrigley Field on Thursday night. The 26-year-old is 4-8 with a 4.48 ERA and has dropped each of his last four decisions.
Last time out, he limited the Cincinnati Reds to just three earned runs in seven innings of work, striking out six and walking just one batter on the evening. However, he still suffered a tough-luck loss for his efforts. The start was Alzolay’s first quality outing since May 22 and marked the first time that he completed at least five innings in his last four appearances. Take that in mind next time you check your MLB betting odds.
After appearing in just 10 games and making just six career starts over the last two years, Alzolay has performed well in his first year as a full-time starter. The Cubs’ right-hander has fanned 9.46 batters and walked just 2.61 batters per nine innings of work this season. However, he’s been hurt by the long ball and has allowed 23.5 percent of his fly balls to leave the ballpark. This will be Alzolay’s first career appearance against the Phillies. He owns a lifetime 4-3 record and 3.60 ERA in 12 games (11 starts) at Wrigley Field.
Eflin hasn’t had a lot of luck in the win-loss column but he’s pitched well, for the most part, this season. With 10 quality starts and 13 outings of six innings or more, he’s been one of Philadelphia’s most consistent starters in 2021. Meanwhile, Alzolay is also coming off of a quality start but he’s struggled as of late, allowing at least three runs in each of his last four starts while giving up seven home runs during that span. With the Cubs struggling as a whole, take the Phillies to close this series with a win on Thursday. I like the Philies for my MLB pick.
MLB Pick: Phillies ML (+103) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.