Can Penn State upset the Buckeyes? Below, we’ll take a look at the early NCAAF odds and the best sportsbook to bet with this week.
Saturday, October 30, 2021 – 07:30 PM EDT at Ohio Stadium
Penn State is coming off of a terrible loss last week, but they might have been looking ahead for the game this week. Their season now hangs in the balance as they prepare to play the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Penn State is out of the CFP race, but they could still make a quality bowl game if they ran the table. They have an experienced quarterback and a weapon on the outside. Their defense isn’t elite, but it has limited scoring in almost every game this year.
Ohio State still has the College Football Playoff insight, but they need to win out to get there. That means this is a must-win game for both teams as we approach the final quarter of the regular season. The Buckeyes got to rest last week, and they will now face another ranked opponent as their regular season winds down.
According to NCAAF odds, Ohio State is favored by 17.5 points. Is that fair? Here are keys for each team and a pick regarding this game. We’ll start with the favorites heading into this one.
Ohio State’s offense has improved as the season has progressed. CJ Stroud is a solid quarterback, and he does a great job of using the weapons around him. He needs to stay the course in this one. He doesn’t have to be the hero against the Nittany Lions. As long as he stays within the system and distributes the ball efficiently, the offense will be fine.
However, they have to finish drives with touchdowns. With such a large spread, the expectation is that Ohio State will torch the Nittany Lions through the passing game. This could happen, but it won’t matter if they can’t finish drives in the red zone. If they start settling for field goals, they won’t be able to cover the spread.
On defense, the Buckeyes should eliminate Sean Clifford’s ability to run the ball. The running backs are inconsistent, and Clifford is a bad passer. The quarterback scrambles can break down a solid defense, so they must be avoided. Ohio State has a good chance of covering the spread, but Penn State knows what they need to do in this game as well.
Penn State has to avoid turnovers in this game if they want to keep it close. They thankfully won the turnover battle against Illinois, but that still was not enough for them to win the game. Against Ohio State, a negative turnover margin would be an automatic way to lose this game.
The offense needs to find easy ways to put points on the board as well. Expect all sorts of trick plays by the Nittany Lions. If they are in enemy territory, it should be a four-down situation.
This game will ultimately come down to Penn State’s defense stopping the Buckeyes. Their offense cannot afford a shootout. They’ll have to limit long drives by Ohio State. Look for Arnold Ebiketie to get pressure to keep Stroud from completing deep passes. He leads the team in sacks and is one of the best pass-rushers in the Big Ten. He flies under the radar, but a couple of big plays in this game would help spread his name.
Penn State is in a tough situation after their loss last week, but they still have hope. Can they cover the spread?
Ohio State has been a solid team this year if you take away their loss against Oregon. They are 5-2 against the spread and can get off to strong starts with ease. Still, this will be an emotionally charged game with both teams looking to beat their rival.
Even though Ohio State is playing at home, for my NCAAF pick, I have Penn State covering the spread. The Buckeyes have a history of struggling randomly against inferior opponents, and the Nittany Lions will be motivated in this one. The bye helps, but that might cause some rust.
Penn State has a tough task ahead of them, and they won’t win. Still, they might keep it close long enough to cover the spread.
NCAAF Pick: Penn State +18 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.