As the East Division series between the Pittsburgh Penguins and NY Islanders enters game 6, the Penguins have it all to do. The series is precariously poised on a 3-2 mark in favor of the Islanders after they stunned the Penguins in double overtime to clinch the pivotal 3-2 win at the PPG Paints Arena.
Naturally, the betting odds swing in favor of the hosts in sports betting online markets as the potential series-deciding game 6 is set to get underway at the Nassau Coliseum. However, the advantage – if it can be called that – is so slim that its negligible at best. Then there’s the Penguins’ motivation fueled by the must-win situation they all of a sudden find themselves in to consider.
Whichever way you slice it, there’s value to be had on either side of the coin in the betting. Making this one of the most intriguing contests in midweek NHL betting. So, will the Penguins take the initiative on the road or will the Islanders capitalize on home advantage to clinch the series? Find out as weigh in on this riveting matchup and serve up predictions.
Wednesday, May 26, 2021 – 06:30 PM EDT at Nassau Coliseum
The story behind this series has been one of grit, determination and fightback. Exemplary qualities showed by both sides thus far in the series to deliver one of the most exciting first round series of the playoffs. But, now that the Penguins are down 2-3 in the series, the onus is on them to make a fist of it and send it into a deciding game 7.
After the bitter 4-3 overtime loss in game 1, the Penguins rebounded nicely with a hard-fought 2-1 win at the PPG Paints Arena in game 2 to split the series 1-1. Pittsburgh could ill afford a 0-2 hole heading to the Barclays Center in Brooklyn and they rose to the occasion admirably, underscoring their favorable NHL odds with the much-needed win at home.
The Penguins advanced their lead in the series by edging the Islanders 5-4 in game 3, pulling off the road upset to the chagrin of home fans. However, the advantage was short lived as the Islanders stormed back in game 4 with a convincing 4-1 victory to level the series 2-2.
Game 4 was a particularly frustrating one for the Penguins. Although they attacked the net in droves, they simply couldn’t best Ilya Sorokin, who got the start after a few not-so great games for the Semyon Varlamov. Bad news for the Penguins that may have been, but great news for the Islanders who were able to get back into the series once again on account of Sorokin’s solid play.
With the series tied 2-2, the Penguins had the advantage in game 5 to once again take the lead. But for a second time in the series, the game went into overtime to settle the score. And for the second time in the series, the Islanders emerged triumphant in overtime. This time though the advantage is weighty because it puts the Islanders within a game of clinching the series. By that same token, it puts the Penguins within a game of their season ending prematurely.
Game 5 was every bit as nerve-wracking and exciting as game 1, which was also decided in favor of the Islanders in overtime. While the Islanders needed double overtime to do the trick, they nevertheless pulled off the road upset to take a stranglehold of the series before heading back to the Nassau Coliseum for a series-defining game 6.
From the start of the series, the Islanders showed intent. They stunned the Penguins in game 1 and then after dropping back-to-back games, they’ve rebounded to win two straight and take the series lead.
After game 2, head coach Barry Totz felt his side was largely to blame for the loss. “I thought we were a little bit light in some areas. We didn't make it hard enough on them. We just have to raise our level. We have that."
However, something has to be said about the return of Semyon Varlamov as well. The netminder had missed the first game of the series and looked a little bit rusty in his first postseason start in game 2. In fact, that was evinced early as the only two goals that got past him were in the first period. Although he quickly recovered from his shaky start, going on to make some highlight reel saves to boot, his teammates weren’t able make up the deficit and the Islanders lost a narrow one on the road. Varlamov finished the night 43 of 45 for a .956 save percentage.
Unfortunately, Varlamov was shaky enough in game 3 as well to prompt Barry Totz to make a change in the line-up, naming the star of game 1, Ilya Sorokin as the starter for game 4. The decision proved to be the right one as the Islanders clinched the decisive 4-1 victory in game 4 with Sorokin looking impressive between the posts, going 29 of 30 saves for a .967 save percentage.
As the series headed back to PPG Paint Arena for game 5, the Islanders were at the distinct disadvantage on the NHL odds board. Across sports betting sites, the Penguins were tipped as the firm faves while the Islanders were the considerable underdogs. Betting at Bovada Sportsbook closed with the Islanders pegged as high as +130 to win game 5 right before the first puck drop.
Tale told the Islanders delivered to the chagrin of the fans in Steel city. Anthony Beauvillier scored the Islanders first goal while Jordan Eberle tied the game at 2-2 with his second goal of the postseason. The game winner came early in the second overtime when Josh Bailey capitalized on a turnover to beat Tristan Jarry and give the Islanders the 3-2 win. Sorokin was under pressure throughout and faced a total of 50 shots in the game, making 48 saves for a 960 save percentage.
The East Division series between the Penguins and Islanders is living up to the hype as the series reaches the penultimate game in the best-of-seven scenario. If markets across the best sportsbooks were any indication, it can go either way between these two standouts that have in the eyes of many hockey insiders all the requisite tools to go deep in the playoffs respectively, if not win the Stanley Cup altogether.
As it is, the NHL betting lines are tighter than an accountant’s fist with the Penguins nudging ever so slightly ahead of the Islanders at several sports betting sites that have gone to market early. BetOnline Sportsbook, for instance, has opened with the Penguins tipped at -106 and the Islanders tipped at -104. Barely a worthwhile difference in the odds to merit discussing.
What would tip the balance in favor of the Islanders is home ice actually. After the Avalanche and Penguins, the Islanders had one of the best home records with a 21-4-3 mark. Additionally, they’ve had Pittsburgh’s number in five of their eight regular season contests and now have the 3-2 advantage in the series. Opening markets may have cornered this series with the Penguins, but the Islanders have backed themselves all along to get to this point. And now, they’re merely one win away from the second round of the NHL playoffs.
If this series were to fall in line with the opening NHL futures that had at the start of the postseason cornered the series with the East Division champions, the Penguins would need to win out. They have the experience of their veterans to fall back on and the skill and talent on offense that could make for a formidable combination, but the momentum right now does feel to be with the Islanders. This doesn’t mean that the Penguins can’t turn it around. Of course, they can given their undeniable quality. The question is whether the Islanders will let them…
Game 6 is a tossup for NHL picks, but it’s still a game that the Islanders should win. Based on game 5 and the massive double overtime victory, the Islanders must be buoyed with confidence and enthusiasm as they head back to the Big Apple. It’s their game and series to win or lose now because if they don’t get the job done in game 6, it’s going to be much harder to pull off the feat in game 7 on the road.
NHL Picks: Islanders -104 with BetOnline