The New Orleans Pelicans (31-39), freshly eliminated from the playoff picture, travel to take on the Golden State Warriors (37-33) on ESPN this Friday night. Depending on what happens with the No. 7 seed Los Angeles Lakers, the Warriors could be the most interesting team in the new play-in tournament thanks to the play of Steph Curry.
Friday, May 14, 2021 – 9:30 PM EDT at Chase Center
Golden State is a 5.5-point favorite at many top sportsbooks. The Warriors are 6-1 in their last seven games while Zion Williamson remains out for the Pelicans. However, New Orleans has the last victory over the Warriors, beating them 108-103 on May 4.
All three meetings between these teams this season have been scheduled for May, so we are talking about very recent history. The teams played a back-to-back in New Orleans on May 3-4. The Warriors came out hot in the first quarter of the first game, building a 39-21 lead and never looking back in a 123-108 victory. The Pelicans had a miserable shooting night, including a 5-for-25 finish from three, while the Warriors shot 68.2% from two-point territory, the worst game of the season for New Orleans’ defense. Curry finished with 41 points.
The rematch was tightly contested with 12 ties and 14 lead changes. Golden State held a lead for more than 35 minutes, but the Pelicans owned the final minute. With the game tied at 100 in the final 30 seconds, the Pelicans went on an 8-0 run, winning 108-103. Curry missed a go-ahead three before the Warriors were hit with a clear path foul, resulting in four successful free throws by the Pelicans. Curry finished with 37 points, but the Warriors only shot 41.9% from the field, the team’s worst effort in May. New Orleans was actually worse (40.2%), but Lonzo Ball stepped up with 33 points to lead the Pelicans in scoring. The Pelicans are 4-0 this season when Ball scores more than 25 points. Ball missed Wednesday’s 18-point loss against Dallas and will be out again on Friday night. Can the Pelicans pull off a cover without Williamson and Ball?
New Orleans enters this game at a serious disadvantage when it comes to health, but second-leading scorer Brandon Ingram is at least questionable to play. If he misses his fifth game in a row, then the onus falls to veteran Eric Bledsoe, who only averages 12.2 points per game as the team’s fourth-leading scorer this season.
In the last four games without Williamson and Ingram, the Pelicans rank No. 24 in Offensive Rating (107.4). The Warriors (124.7) just so happen to rank No. 1 in that same timespan. Two of those games were stat-padding against pathetic Oklahoma City, but the Warriors are coming off impressive, gut-punch victories over major contenders from Utah (119-116) and Phoenix (122-116). Yes, the margin of victory was small, but the Warriors were playing arguably the two best teams in the league.
On Tuesday, the Warriors managed to beat Phoenix despite Curry being vastly outplayed by guards Devin Booker and Chris Paul. Curry finished 1-of-11 from three (tying a season-worst game) and only scored 21 points. In fact, Curry is a very uncharacteristic 4-of-24 from three in his last two games. While Curry understandably gets the headlines, it is worth noting that the Warriors rank No. 1 in Defensive Rating (102.1) in May. Andrew Wiggins stepped up with perhaps his finest game of the season against Phoenix, scoring 38 points on 17-of-24 shooting.
Other elements of the team are coming into place as the playoffs draw near. However, the Warriors’ playoff run will ultimately go as far as Curry’s hot hand can take them. Based on the last two games, it needs to heat up again and the Pelicans are a great way to achieve that.
Whether Ingram plays or not, the Pelicans are really banged up and no longer have a shot at the postseason. The Warriors are 18-12 ATS as a favorite this season, a record only the Knicks (18-7) look better at. As a home favorite, the Warriors are 11-6 ATS. I think Curry gets back to his usual three-point production and the Warriors cruise at home by playing strong defense against a limited offensive team from New Orleans. The Warriors should be a great value pick for Friday night’s NBA slate.
NBA Pick: Warriors -5.5 (-110) at Bovada