Pelicans vs. Suns NBA Playoffs Game 5 Best Bets (Archive)
The Over has decent value for your Tuesday NBA picks when the Phoenix Suns sans Devin Booker host the New Orleans Pelicans in Game 5.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, April 26, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at Footprint Center
Why can’t the Phoenix Suns have nice things? They were dominating last year’s NBA Finals until Devin Booker’s hamstring started acting up in Game 3, allowing the Milwaukee Bucks to get back on track and take the title in six. Now it’s the first round of the 2022 playoffs, and the Suns are trying to beat the New Orleans Pelicans after Booker pulled another hammy in Game 2.
It’s not going well. This series is knotted at 2-2 heading into Tuesday’s Game 5; New Orleans have taken two of three since Booker went on the shelf, and they’re very much a live dog after opening as 6-point puppies on the NBA odds board at BetOnline – and moving to +7 at press time. We’re looking elsewhere for our primary pick, though. And it’s definitely a contrarian pick, so buckle up.
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Down, Down, Down
It does feel a bit strange calling the Over a contrarian pick – especially when the BMR consensus reports show 83 percent of early (and presumably sharp) bettors pounding the Under. But that added pressure has driven the total down from 215.5 to 215 points at Heritage Sports, after a brief stop at 214.5.
Here’s a quick reminder of where the closing totals stood for the first four games:
Game 1: 224
Game 2: 222
Game 3: 216
Game 4: 216
The series opener had no trouble going Under when the Suns prevailed 110-99, which got those NBA lines steaming in the first place. Then Booker got hurt in Game 2, and the total dropped six more points for the next games in New Orleans. Six points~! That’s an over-correction if we’ve ever seen one here at the ranch. Sure enough, each of Games 2 through 4 went Over the posted total.
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Box and One
In case our ranch eyes are failing us, let’s take a quick look at the advanced stats at Basketball Reference, where Booker checks in at plus-4.1 in the Box Plus/Minus column. That includes plus-3.9 at the offensive end, and plus-0.2 at the defensive end. If his absence is worth six points to the total, it must be because of the people replacing him.
It isn’t, therefore it isn’t. Cameron Johnson (plus-2.0 OBPM, plus-0.7 DBPM) steps capably into the starting rotation for Booker, while Landry Shamet (minus-0.9 OBPM, minus-0.4 DBPM) and Cameron Payne (minus-0.4 OBPM, plus-0.4 DBPM) absorb more backcourt minutes off the bench. Booker’s loss definitely damages the Suns, but not to the point where six points should come off the board.
Which is why this is a contrarian pick. Fading the public is a big part of what we do, even if it’s become unfashionable in some betting circles. Our secondary pick for Game 5 is a lot tougher, but now that New Orleans are available at +7, we’ll recommend them for a fun-sized bet. Maybe you’ll get a better price closer to tip-off, in which case a larger bet would be appropriate. Either way, be more willing to pound that total, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Over 215 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
NBA Pick: Pelicans +7 (–110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.