Wednesday, June 02, 2021 – 02:20 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
In one of the biggest surprises of the season, the Chicago Cubs are in first place in the NL Central with a 31-23 record. Going into the season they were expected to win 75-80 games, and now they are on track to win 93 games. Their record is no fluke as they have a +33 run differential meaning they have won each game by an average of .61 runs. The Cubbies have done this with decent hitting and starting pitching.
Chicago is hosting the San Diego Padres in today’s Wrigley Field matinee. The Padres have a 34-22 record and are in second place in the highly competitive NL West. San Diego is currently on track to win 98 games.
What is most impressive about the Padres is that they should have the best record in the league due to their league leading +80 run differential. On average, San Diego wins each game by 1.43 runs. Based on their Pythagorean record they should have a 38-18 record and we on track to win 110 games.
The Padres have many factors that have contributed to their success this season. Their lineup averages 4.77 runs per game even though their best offensive player SS Fernando Tatis Jr. missed significant time with injury. Their starting rotation is also bolstered by Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove. For Wednesday’s game, they must rely on a less reliable starting pitcher in Dinelson Lamet.
Wednesday afternoon’s game is going to be a little bit different for San Diego as they are relying on Dinelson Lamet as their starting pitcher. Unlike much of the Padres rotation, Lamet is more unpredictable as he has only pitched for 14 innings this season.
In the past Lamet had been a regular starting pitcher for the Padres and he performed decently. Last year Lamet had his strongest season ever as he had a 2.09 ERA, and a 3.30 xFIP. This season Lamet has a 2.57 ERA, but there is a catch. Lamet is only being used as an “opener”.
The opener strategy involves a starting pitcher pitching for only two to three innings and then the bullpen handles the rest of the game. Lamet will pitch well in his first three innings, but what about the rest of the game? San Diego’s bullpen currently has an xFIP of 3.59 which is the second lowest in the league. It will be a weird game for the Padres, but they should be able to keep runs off the scoreboard.
Opposing Lamet is Adbert Alzolay for the Cubs. Despite being in his third season, Alzolay is still considered a rookie as he only had 33 2/3 career innings entering the season. This year, Alzolay has put together a strong performance as he has a 3.81 ERA, and a 3.43 xFIP. Most impressively Alzolay is averaging almost 5 2/3 innings per start which is impressive in a league where the average starting pitcher is pitching for only five innings per start.
Additionally, like the Padres, the Cubs have a great bullpen. Chicago’s bullpen has an xFIP of 3.69 which is the 5th best in the league.
Both teams have been appropriately priced for Wednesday’s game. Even though the Padres are a better team, the Cubs deserve to be small favorites based on the strength of their team, strength of Adbert Alzolay, and having homefield advantage.
Despite both teams having strong pitching, the run total has been set too low at only seven runs. This is because both teams have strong lineups. The Cubs average 4.61 runs per game while the Padres average 4.77 runs per game. Combined both Chicago and San Diego average 9.38 runs per game or 2.38 runs per game more than the total. At only seven runs, the over is worth a bet.
MLB Pick: Over 7 Runs (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.