Thanks to Hurricane Ida, the New Orleans Saints will “host” their Week 1 NFL home opener against the Green Bay Packers not in the Big Easy but in Jacksonville, Fla., on Sunday. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Sunday, September 12, 2021 – 04:25 PM EDT at TIAA Bank Field
No question that the Packers catch a break in this matchup that it couldn’t be played in New Orleans because of lingering damage from Hurricane Ida. Most thought this game would be moved to Dallas, where the Saints moved ahead of the storm to practice. However, that wouldn’t work for logistical reasons due to an upcoming concert at AT&T Stadium, so the Saints decided to look at all three Florida NFL stadiums and chose Jacksonville. Why do you ask?
This may sound ridiculous, but one factor is that the Saints believed fewer Packers fans would fill that stadium than in Tampa or Miami because it’s much harder to fly from Green Bay to Jacksonville than those other cities. That’s pretty clever thinking. Another reason the Saints picked Florida? Aaron Rodgers has struggled in the Sunshine State in his career, going 3-4 with a QB rating of 78.1 in seven career starts. I still expect the stadium to be a majority of Green Bay fans.
The Packers are 2-5 against the spread on NFL picks in the past seven meetings but won outright as underdogs in New Orleans last year, 37-30. Rodgers threw for 283 yards and three scores. Drew Brees also threw for three TDs. More on him below.
The Packers may not win the Super Bowl this year because the only team that finished winless in the preseason, which Green Bay did, to win the Super Bowl was the Washington Redskins in the strike-shortened 1982 season. The Pack are +1100 third-favorites on the BetOnline NFL futures odds to win Super Bowl 56 next February in Los Angeles.
Could this be the final season opener for Aaron Rodgers in a Packers uniform? I’m not about to recap the entire offseason drama between him and the franchise, but the short of it is that the Packers have agreed to trade Rodgers after this season if he still wants out. A motivated/pissed-off Rodgers is a very good thing because he was both last year due to the Jordan Love pick and won his third career MVP. Rodgers is +1600 on the NFL odds to win a fourth. Disregard the preseason because he didn’t play at all.
Maybe no team has a better QB/RB/WR trio than Green Bay’s Rodgers/Aaron Jones/Davante Adams. Jones re-signed this offseason (in a minor surprise after he was allowed to hit the market) and Adams can hit free agency after this season.
Two key injury notes for Green Bay: All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari will miss the first six weeks of the season because he’s on the PUP list. Bakhtiari, who tore the ACL in his left knee in practice on Dec. 31, would be first eligible to play on Oct. 24. Pro Bowl linebacker Za’Darius Smith has been dealing with a back injury all of camp and is in question for Sunday. Even if cleared, Smith, the team’s sack leader over the past two seasons with 26, would surely play limited snaps.
The Packers are 2-0 in Week 1 games against the Saints. Green Bay won the last season-opening matchup between the two teams, 42-34, on Sept. 8, 2011. The Packers are 5-1 ATS at BMR’s top-rated books in their past six season openers.
Of course, the Saints lost future Hall of Famer Drew Brees, who holds most NFL regular-season passing records (although Tom Brady may take some of those this year), to retirement. Former Bucs starting quarterback Jameis Winston beat out hybrid QB Taysom Hill in the preseason to win the starting job. Winston’s last pass as an NFL starter? A pick-six on Dec. 29, 2019, in overtime against the Atlanta Falcons.
That year with Tampa Bay, Winston did lead the NFL with 5,109 yards passing but also became the first QB ever with 30 TDs and 30 picks in a season – his seven pick-sixes set a league single-season record. Expect to see Hill in some Wildcat plays, etc., from the quarterback position, though. New Orleans made two roster surprises this week in releasing quality No. 2 running back Latavius Murray for financial reasons and trading for Texans cornerback Bradley Roby – although Roby is suspended for Week 1.
New Orleans has been gutted this offseason in the secondary via free agency/injury/retirement. Tony Jones will now operate as the second running back in the Saints’ tandem backfield with star Alvin Kamara.
Three key Saints players will miss several weeks: All-Pro receiver Michael Thomas (ankle surgery) defensive tackle David Onyemata (six-game suspension) and Pro Bowl kicker Will Lutz (groin surgery). Even with Brees gone, perhaps expect a high-scoring game Sunday. The winning team has scored 34-plus points in eight of the last 10 matchups. The Saints are 1-6 ATS in their past seven Week 1 games, but those obviously were with Brees. If the Saints were getting this many points in a true home game, I’d take them. But not in what is essentially a road game.
NFL Pick: Packers -4 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.