The Green Bay Packers and Cincinnati Bengals are coming off wins in Week 4: the Packers crushed the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, and the Bengals rallied to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday night. Something has got to give when this pair collides Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium for an inter-conference showdown.
Books opened the Packers as the 3-point road favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals on the NFL odds board, while the total is projected to 50 points.
Sunday, October 10, 2021, 1:00 PM EDT at Paul Brown Stadium
After suffering a shocking upset in Week 1 to the Saints, the Packers righted the ship and reeled off three straight wins to improve to a 3-1 record and the season, moving into top spot in the NFC North.
The 38-3 loss to the Saints in Green Bay’s season opener sent alarm bells around NFL betting circles, prompting many to question the legitimacy of the Packers as contenders this season. Was Green Bay overrated this year? Had the offseason drama between Rodgers and the organization taken a toll on the team?
In the three games that followed, the Packers quashed doubts and answered the questions resoundingly with wins over the Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers, and Pittsburgh Steelers in succession.
This Sunday, the Packers thumped the Steelers 27-17 at Lambeau Field, coming through as the closing 6-point home chalk across multiple online sports betting platforms. It marked the first matchup between Ben Roethlisberger and Rodgers since the Packers defeated the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV.
Aaron Rodgers was sharp right out of the gates, going 26-of-36 for 249 yards and 2 touchdowns, connecting with Randall Cobb on both occasions. The veteran signal-caller also rushed two yards for a score. AJ Dillon led the team in rushing with 81 yards on 15 carries.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals lit up on primetime Thursday night football to defeat the Jacksonville Jaguars 24-21 in overtime. On the heels of the win, the Bengals improved to a 3-1 record on the season, and they continue to hold the top spot in the AFC North for a second straight week.
The Bengals got off to a slow start and fell behind early, but Burrow, the 2020 No.1 draft pick, rallied his Bengals from a 14-point deficit in the first half to seize the victory at the expense of 2021 No.1 draft pick Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. After leading four straight scoring drives in the second half, the second-year quarterback’s performance left no doubt about why he went first overall. And why Bengals fans are excited about the future.
Burrow finished 25-of-32 for 348 yards and two touchdowns. Joe Mixon led the team in rushing with 67 yards and a touchdown, while C.J. Uzomah was the standout in the receiving corps with 95 yards and two touchdowns.
At the face of it, little separates the Packers and Bengals. Both are 3-1 SU on the season and sitting in first place in their respective divisions. The Packers are 3-1-0 ATS, while the Bengals are 2-2-0 ATS. Importantly, confidence is high in both camps going into Week 5.
So, if games were played on paper, it would be a right tossup for NFL picks between this pair. But it’s never so simple. Aaron Rodgers, the 2020 MVP, is the X-factor in this matchup, and his leadership and experience have completely transformed this team since its opening loss to New Orleans. The Packers are playing spectacular football and flying offensively.
The Bengals put in an inspired performance on Thursday, but at the heart of it, it was a win over the hapless Jaguars, who slipped to an 0-4 record after losing in overtime to Cincinnati. It’s one thing to beat a winless team. Quite another to get the better of the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers.
The Bengals have made important strides, but we’ve yet to see them play a truly in-form team this season. Granted, the Bengals beat the Vikings and Steelers – two sides that started 2021 with high expectations. However, seeing that both Minnesota and Pittsburgh are merely 1-3 SU after four rounds, those wins look less impressive.
This doesn’t mean the Bengals can’t turn this into a competitive game, but it does make a win over the Packers a tough ask. All things considered, the NFL line feels too modest, especially given the way Rodgers and the Packers are playing right now. So, the Packers to cover as the 3-point road chalk is the choice bet for NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Packers -3 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.