No. 3 Oregon looks a lot better on paper than unranked Stanford does, but you can throw out the records when those Pac-12 rivals meet – as they do Saturday on The Farm. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Saturday, October 02, 2021 – 03:30 PM EDT at Stanford Stadium
It’s the first Pac-12 road game of the season for third-ranked Oregon as it visits Stanford with ABC having the national telecast. The Ducks are clearly the team to beat in the conference, priced -120 on the Bovada NCAAF futures odds to capture the Pac-12 title game. Stanford is +3500.
The Cardinal lead the all-time series 49-34-1, but Oregon has won 13 of the past 20.
Last year, Oregon was an 11.5-point home favorite on the NCAAF odds and won 35-14. Tyler Shough threw for 227 yards and a score and also rushed for a touchdown. However, he transferred to Texas Tech this past offseason. CJ Verdell, still a big part of the Oregon offense, rushed for 105 yards and a TD. Austin Jones rushed for 100 yards and two scores on 20 carries for the Cardinal.
The favorite is 5-0 against the spread in the past five meetings.
Oregon opened Pac-12 play this past Saturday with a 41-19 home win over an Arizona club that is the worst team in the league, yet was only down 24-19 entering the fourth quarter.
Anthony Brown finished 10-of-21 passing for 206 yards and three touchdowns. He has now thrown 138 consecutive passes without an interception. Star running back CJ Verdell was held largely in check, rushing for 45 yards and a TD on 11 carries.
The Ducks entered ranking fifth nationally in takeaways with eight and tied for third in average turnover margin per game (plus-2.33) and they forced five more turnovers – all interceptions. The last was a Bennett Williams 68-yard return for a score with about seven minutes left.
Oregon is now 18-2 under coach Mario Cristobal when winning the turnover battle. The Ducks scored at least 14 points off turnovers for the 14th time under Cristobal, improving to 13-1 in those games.
Arguably the best defensive player in the nation, Ducks edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, returned after missing the past two-plus games with a left ankle sprain and then left before halftime. It sounds like that was the plan all along. At BetOnline, Thibodeaux is the +175 betting favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
“Kayvon really improved a lot this week and we figured he really felt good and wanted to try it with a load management limit on there,” Cristobal said. “We were thinking 6-10 plays — I think we got somewhere in that neighborhood, maybe nine. We really feel good about how he’s going to be for this upcoming week.”
Another Oregon defender, safety Verone McKinley III, already has four interceptions (career-high) with 23 total tackles, two pass deflections, and a forced fumble. He’s the first Oregon player with an interception in three straight games since Erick Dargan in the 2012 season.
Kicker Camden Lewis has been perfect this season, going 5-for-5 on field goals and 20-for-20 on extra points. The Ducks are 8-0 in his career when he makes a field goal.
Oregon is 1-6 ATS on NCAAF picks in its past seven after a win.
A lot of “experts” liked Stanford (2-2) to upset No. 24 UCLA on Saturday, but the visiting Bruins prevailed 35-24. That was the Cardinal’s first home game since November 2020. Stanford was the only Power Five program to begin the season with two straight games away from home, let alone three. UCLA clinched it on a 5-yard TD pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson to Kyle Phillips with 2:30 left.
Three of Stanford’s four primary running backs – Austin Jones, E.J. Smith, and Casey Filkins – missed the game due to injury.
Jones and Filkins could return for this one. They were missed as the Cardinal managed only 67 yards on 22 carries. Nathaniel Peat made his first career start at tailback and had 13 carries for 27 yards. Tanner McKee passed for three scores and led the Cardinal with 42 yards rushing. The offense failed to record a first down in the first five possessions.
“Offensively just a terrible start, absolutely terrible start, inexcusable,” said head coach David Shaw. “Throw it on me. It’s my fault. We did not start well. That’s my job.”
Tight end Ben Yurosek also missed the game. The secondary was very thin vs. UCLA as starting safety Noah Williams was out. Stanford has been without expected starters Salim Turner-Muhammad at cornerback and Jonathan McGill at safety all season as both were hurt in camp.
The Cardinal is now 28-21 against Top 25 foes under Shaw. Stanford does not have as reliable a kicker as Oregon does with Joshua Karty just 3-for-6 on field-goal tries and 2-for-5 from 40 yards and beyond.
Stanford is 4-1-1 ATS in its past six Pac-12 games, while Oregon is 0-6 ATS in its past six as a favorite. We think the Cardinal can stay within a touchdown at home so will take the points.
NCAAF Pick: Stanford at +8 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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