Top-rated sportsbooks have released their odds for Monday’s slate of Olympics competition.
Three games, across two different sports, interest me: Denmark vs. Egypt and Norway vs France in handball, and Japan vs USA in women’s basketball.
For your best bets, I recommend investing in Egypt and Norway to cover the spread and the Japan-USA under.
Denmark vs. Egypt (handball)
Monday, July 29, 2024 – 08:00 AM ET at South Paris Arena 6
Favored Denmark
Denmark is heavily favored to win this game. After its opening match against France, betting on Denmark to cover the spread in Monday’s match might seem like an obvious choice.
Most people will likely bet on Denmark because they reason that, if the Danes can beat France 37-29, then they can surely beat Egypt by at least as many goals. But this way of thinking is erroneous. In sports betting, transitive property sort of logic (if A, then B, then C) repeatedly fails, one reason being that there are too many variables that come into play.
France might be better than Denmark’s upcoming opponent on paper, but the French also just looked awful. Their defending looked hapless, and other problems show that we need to readjust our perception of the French.
My point here is that you can’t develop unrealistically high expectations about Denmark based on its opening match.
Egypt Will Be Competitive
Egypt’s opening match, when it took control of the match against Hungary and held on, showed the Egyptians to be in strong form. This is all we need to see – strong form from the Egyptians – because they are a sneaky strong side.
Folks forget that they made the semifinals in the last Olympics. More crucially, in the 2021 World Men’s Handball Championship, they took the team that they’ll face on Monday to penalties. Denmark escaped by the thinnest of margins.
When these teams played again in 2023, it was another close game – it concluded with a four-point differential.
My conclusion here is that Denmark is being favored too heavily.
Handball Best Bet: Egypt +5.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Norway vs. France (Handball)
Monday, July 29, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at South Paris Arena 6
Norway’s Stronger Form
As I discussed above, France seems to be in rough form. The French actually had a good lead against Denmark, as they were buoyed by the support of the French faithful. But then they lost the match by eight.
Conversely, Norway seems to be in much stronger form, as evident in their win over Argentina.
A comparison of the current form suggests that Norwegians will at the very least remain competitive against struggling France. But Norway is also just a good squad in general, as evident in their dominating win against a well-reputed Sweden side in the 2024 Euros.
Norway has disappointed against lesser competition, but they are confident and focused enough to hang with the highest-profile teams.
Handball Best Bet: Norway +4.5 (-120) at BetOnline
Japan vs. USA (basketball)
Monday, July 29, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Pierre Mauroy Stadium
Don’t Play The Spread
There is a better way to attack this game than to bet on the spread.
It is a very large spread, and, as a bettor, I indeed generally try to stay away from large spreads, because teams often don’t care whether they win by this or that high point total.
By betting on Team USA to win by 20 or more points, we’d essentially be betting on them to win by an even much higher margin in order to avoid being stung by any sort of carelessness that they might have while closing the game and not caring whether they win by this or that high point total.
Recent Olympic history suggests that we shouldn’t expect the Americans to win by so many points. In 2021, for example, in the Tokyo Olympics, Team USA beat Japan by only 15.
Team USA’s Focus Inside
Instead of playing the spread, I think the total is the best way to attack this game. There are glaring matchup considerations, which motivate me to expect a low-scoring game.
One glaring matchup point is that the Japanese are characteristically rather small. Conversely, the Americans are huge overall. So, surely, Team USA is going to want to attack the post in an attempt to assert its dominance inside.
In basketball, for men and for women, post play slows the game down. With a lot of post play in Monday’s game, we’ll get a slow-paced game where a lot of clock is drained without points being scored.
Team USA’s Perimeter Defense
Especially as the Japanese cannot compete with the Americans inside the arc, the Japanese will rely on their long-distance shooting.
If you look into the USA’s individual defenders, though, you’ll read about how so many of them have a strong reputation for their perimeter defense. Napheesa Collier and Kahleah Copper are just two examples of Americans who are very comfortable guarding the perimeter.
Team USA’s perimeter defense will lock down Japan’s best means of scoring, thus further facilitating a low-scoring outcome.
Basketball Best Bet: Under 161.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
