Oklahoma vs. Baylor College Football Week 11 Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
Oklahoma and Baylor both had an off week last Saturday. Unfortunately for the Bears, they had a game on that day. Baylor was upset by TCU in week 10, causing the Bears to drop in the poll, while Oklahoma continued to remain on pace to contend for a berth in the College Football Playoff after a bye week. Now the No. 4 Sooners will look to add a victory over the No. 18 Bears to further make their case to the selection committee. Which way to lean at BMR’s best sportsbooks?
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears
Saturday, November 13, 2021 – 12:00 PM EST at McLane Stadium
Despite their high ranking in the polls, Oklahoma was a surprisingly low No. 8 in the first set of CFP rankings, released last week. The Sooners will need to make a case to the selection committee that their schedule is as tough as some of the teams in front of them, and that can start with a win over the No. 18 Baylor Bears on the road this Saturday.
Beating Everyone
Oklahoma has won shootouts and defensive struggles this year, and the offense seems to be peaking as the Sooners enter the final month. Oklahoma has topped 50 points in three of the last four games and has scored at least 35 in each of the last five.
The Sooners found their stride on offense after replacing quarterback Spencer Rattler with Caleb Williams in the Texas game. Williams has passed for 1,087 yards in three games and thrown 14 touchdowns against one interception over that span.
The ground game, which showed signs of improvement, took a step back the last time out. After averaging 175 yards per game over the first five games, the Sooners rushed for 263 yards per game over the next three. They managed just 72 yards on the ground against Texas Tech, last time out, however.
The Sooners have also been able to get enough of a boost from the defense to have some breathing room lately. After five of their first six wins were decided by one score or less, Oklahoma has won three straight by double digits, with an average margin of 21.3 points.
Oklahoma has been getting big plays on defense, ranking among the nation’s leaders in turnovers and sacks.
Shoring up the Defense
Baylor’s defense will need to bounce back after a rough outing against Texas Christian. The prospect of facing Oklahoma’s Williams and the Sooners receiving corps is troubling, considering the problems the Bears had against TCU.
First-time starter Chandler Morris became the first Horned Frogs quarterback to pass for 400 yards in five years, throwing for 461 against a Bears secondary that couldn’t keep receivers in front of them.
The performance continued a trend by the Baylor secondary. Both Texas and BYU torched the Bears through the air earlier this season.
Improvement may come from upfront. Baylor will look to improve its pass pressure after sacking Morris just once last week.
“The pass rush really kind of stands out as an area that’s got to improve, pass rush lanes,” coach Dave Aranda said. “Our ability to negate their passing. These are things that have kind of plagued us from week one throughout. In a way looking back, this has been coming.”
Baylor can also help control the Sooners passing game by keeping Oklahoma off the field. The Bears lead the Big 12 in rushing at 230 yards per game and will look to control the pace and the clock.
They’ll also need to avoid the big mistakes. Quarterback Gerry Bohanon has thrown 5 interceptions in the last three games, including one that wiped out a drive that could have resulted in a game-winning field goal against TCU.
The Pick
The Sooners have been reinvigorated on offense with the quarterback change, and Oklahoma will be looking to make a statement with a lopsided win against the Bears.
For your NCAAF pick, look for the Sooners and their college football odds to roll up the score on the road.
NCAAF Pick: Oklahoma -5.5 (-113) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.