Nuggets vs. Warriors Free NBA Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
The Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors are both playing their final game before the All-Star break Wednesday night. After opening as big underdogs, the Nuggets have been hit hard overnight and now sit as +5.5 underdogs on the road. Below, we’ll take a look at the NBA odds.
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors
Wednesday, February 16, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at Chase Center
Warriors Struggling Lately
Golden State comes into this game struggling somewhat, losing three of their last four games. A lot of their struggles have to do with Draymond Green missing 20 of the Warriors’ last 21 games, but lately, you also get the sense watching them that the stretch right before the break has been tough on them.
Their offense has sputtered some with Stephen Curry’s colder shooting, but Green’s ability to take the pressure off Curry on offense by distributing and running the offense has been sorely missed. Green’s defense often gets touted as a big missing piece for this Warriors team lately and while that has been evident, you’re seeing it become glaring over their last four games.
Golden State ranks 25th in defensive rating over their last four, allowing opponents 119.1 points per 100 possessions.
That’s a far cry from their defense this season and while I don’t think they’ll have a complete turnaround on defense tonight with the All-Star Break approaching, both of these coaches know that this game matters even if the players may be thinking more about their vacations or their trips to Cleveland for the All-Star game.
Assuming Steve Kerr and Mike Malone can convey this message to their teams that the best defensive team wins this game tonight, I think we can scratch out some value on this total.
The Sharp Pick
Despite their recent struggles, the Warriors have still been one of the league’s best defenses this season, especially when playing from San Francisco. Golden State allows opponents just 101.6 points per 100 possessions in 31 home games this season.
Even with their recent struggles, among teams that have played at least seven of their last 15 games at home, they still rank sixth in home defense with a 107.5 defensive rating. Denver has had their struggles this season on defense but they are slowly improving on that front.
Denver is sixth in the league defensively over their last five games and over their last eight road games, they rank inside the top 10 among teams who have played at least half of their last 15 games on the road.
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The last time these two teams met the game was a complete slug-fest with a super-slow pace and a ton of missed shots. Assuming neither team mails it in on the final night before their All-Star Breaks start, I could see this game playing out similarly, albeit without some keys from their first matchup like Green being out for the Warriors.
I’m adding the under to my NBA picks for tonight and hoping that the pace and defense mimic their first meeting as much as possible. Neither team made it to 90 in that game but as long as both teams don’t make 110 in this one, we’re still golden.
NBA Pick: Under 225.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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