Nuggets +5 points (-108)
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers NBA Playoffs Game 6 Odds Preview and Pick (Archive)
Game 5 in this Western Conference series was an absolute classic, with Denver winning in two overtimes. What can be done for an encore in Game 6?
Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Thursday, June 3, 8:05 PM EDT at Moda Center
Portland had the spread covered (+2) in Game 5 after the third quarter, after the fourth quarter and the first overtime, just not when it mattered most, when the game concluded, falling 147-140. This was a hard loss to choke down for Blazers’ backers and all they can do is regroup in an elimination encounter on their home court.
Damien Lillard can hardly do anymore after pumping in 55 points on 17 for 24 shooting, including 12 of 17 from long range and 9 of 10 from the stripe. Those dozen three-balls broke Klay Thompson’s NBA Playoff record of 11.
Denver persevered with large contributions from several players and they needed every single point. Heritage Sports betting odds have made the Nuggets five-point road underdogs in Rip City. Can Denver cover and eliminate Portland?
Denver Need Same Offensive Formula with Stronger Defense
It was a given Nikola Jokic would bounce back from a lousy game and he had 38 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists. What Denver truly needed was Michael Porter Jr. to assert himself after scoring just three points and he did in a big way with 26 points and a team-leading 12 boards.
However, in playoff games, you often need that third and sometimes fourth scorer to come through. Monte Morris came off the bench and lit up the Portland defense for 28 points, including the clinching free throws. Plus, Austin Rivers had his second strong game of the series with 18 points.
To win on the road at Portland, they could well use four scorers again along with improved defense. The 45.6 percentage field goal percentage allowed was their second-lowest of the series, but chances are the Nuggets stop troops will have to step up further to secure a series clincher.
Blazers Defense Will Have Set Tone to Extended Series
After five contests, the two best defensive efforts by Portland have been at home. That should not shock anyone. In the Game 3 loss, the Blazers permitted 46.5% and followed that up in conceding only 34%. In a trio of postseason assignments at a mile high, coach Terry Stotts defense has averaged giving up over 50%.
These are offensive-minded clubs and while you can win games with offense, if you expect to win a series and move along deeper into the postseason, getting stops is a must. This is something oddsmakers at betting sites understand.
Stotts squad has to live with the fact that Jokic will get his points, it’s how they limit everybody else that will end up mattering in this matchup. It’s well known the Trail Blazers are mediocre on defense, yet, that cannot be an excuse for losing and they need to feed off the energy of the crowd and take away parts of the Nuggets offensive scheme.
If you subtract Lillard’s stunning effort, the rest of his teammates were 30-for-79 in the last game, which was 37.9%. A repeat showing will send the Blazers home for the summer.
Who’s the Play On?
What you cannot help but notice about this series is the SU winner is 5-0 ATS and the team with the most charity stripe attempts has covered each ballgame.
What does that mean for NBA picks Thursday night? Denver was completely unmotivated for their last game in the Northwest and that doesn’t figure to happen in this one. Portland at -5 at home seems like too many points since Denver is 7-3 ATS at the Moda Center and is 11-5-1 ATS as a playoff pooch catching points.
We expect the Nuggets to have the most free throw attempts and wouldn’t be taken aback if they win this battle outright.
NBA Pick: Nuggets +5 points (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.