Nuggets vs. Mavericks NBA Odds, Preview and Prediction (Archive)
The Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks face off in a battle of the Western Conference’s two most marketable stars. Looking at the NBA odds, which team is the right NBA pick?
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Monday, November 15, 2021- 8:00 PM EST at American Airlines Center
Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets (8-4) have been battling through injuries and battling valiantly. The Nuggets are currently on a four-game winning streak, including wins over the Heat, Pacers, and Hawks. The Nuggets are currently missing Michael Porter Jr. Porter Jr was doing well to fill the hole created by the injury to Jamal Murray and Denver will miss his scoring. Murray has not played yet this season. With both MPJ and Murray missing, other Nuggets have had to assume greater roles within the offense.
The Nuggets also had to overcome a 1 game suspension to Nikola Jokic in the win over the Pacers. To see the Nuggets mix and match their players and get a win without their best player had to be encouraging to Nuggets coach Michael Malone and the Nuggets fans. The Nuggets role-players rallied together to get the win. This team is proving they have plenty of people willing to step up when an injured teammate is unable to answer the call.
The reigning MVP Nikola Jokic is playing elite basketball to start the season. Jokic is averaging 25 points, 14 rebounds, and 6 assists, all leading the team for the Denver Nuggets. Will Barton has played well in the absence, averaging 16.4 points, five assists, and four rebounds per game.
Monte Morris and JaMychal Green have provided important reserve minutes to help the Nuggets stay on track amidst the injuries. Bones Hyland, Denver’s draft pick this season, is starting to come into form. The Nuggets role players have stepped up and their ability to continue to try and develop young players while still contending to win the West has been an impressive feat of coaching by Mike Malone.
The Nuggets have a point differential rating of +3.8. They are first in the NBA in points allowed at 98.3. The Nuggets are off to a good start and are legitimate contenders if they can ever get to full health.
Dallas Mavericks
With all the turmoil surrounding his team, you would think their record would be worse. But at 8-4, Dallas is winning even with a negative point differential of -1.6. What this tells me is Dallas is winning more than they are losing, but when they do lose, they get blown out.
Dallas is led by Luka Doncic, who is averaging 25 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. Luka has been brilliant as usual, but his supporting cast has been inconsistent at best. After a slow start, Kristaps Porzingis is starting to come to life. Porzingis is averaging 18 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.
Jalen Brunson is providing punch off the bench at 15 points per game and Tim Hardaway Jr. is averaging 14.4 points per game. All these players have the potential for big nights, but can also be inconsistent and have nights where they barely show up.
Dallas is doing well to still get wins while transitioning to a new offense under new coach Jason Kidd. Kidd was brought in to bring a different voice and help Luka manage life as a superstar point guard in the NBA. Kidd struggled in his two previous stints as a head coach, and the Mavericks are hoping he has learned from his mistakes and will finally lead a team into title contention. So far the pairing has worked, but many are skeptical of how well this hire will fare in the long term for the Dallas Mavericks.
Key Matchup
Will Barton vs. Luka Doncic. Doncic is the complete engine to his team. If he does not have a big night, the Mavericks usually struggle. Barton has chipped in on the offensive end but his defense has been a big boon for the Nuggets team. Nobody can stop Luka Doncic. Yet if Barton is able to slow him down, make him work for the three first three quarters, and tire Doncic out, then the Nuggets will have a good chance to win.
Luka will need to get easy shots and score easily without expending too much energy. Doncic needs to maintain his strength and stamina going into the fourth. This will allow him to duel with Jokic competitively. A fresh Luka in the 4th quarter gives Dallas a great chance to cover the NBA odds or even win outright.
Best Bet
Even without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr, the Denver Nuggets have enough offense to keep pace with the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks record is a bit deceiving. Their metrics do not match up with their win-loss record. We will take advantage of this by using these metrics to spot the flaw in the line. The Denver Nuggets are getting too many points. For your best bets, take the Denver Nuggets.
NBA Pick: Denver Nuggets +4 (-108) with BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.