The Nuggets and Blazers are all knotted at 1-1 as we head into the Pacific Northwest for Game 3. The Blazers come in as favorites in the NBA Odds, so should we trust them to not give back home court to the Nuggets, or will Denver steal one back on the road?
Thursday, May 27, 2021 – 10:30 PM EDT at Moda Center
If you want to watch two teams throwing offensive haymakers at one another, look no further than the Nuggets and Blazers series. These two teams have been lighting each other up and with the series tied 1-1 heading back to Portland, there is no sign that will slow up as the series shifts north. Both Denver and Portland are averaging well-over 120 points per 100 possessions against each other through two playoff games. Only the Jazz and Mavericks have better postseason offensive efficiency through two games.
However, now the venue switches, so we have to examine what kind of changes that may bring to this series. Are these two teams simply going to out-class the opposing side’s defense to the point where scoring continues to be very high? Or, will things come back down to earth in Game 3?
I’m not completely sure the answer to that question, however, Denver going on the road will only hurt their defense and it will probably help the Blazers’ offense after a loss. Denver was about two points worse defensively on the road this season and in their two trips to Portland this regular season, the results were mixed. Their first game they stole a one-point win away from the Blazers in a tight defensive game, but then in the final game of the regular season, Denver was tanking and Portland dropped 132 on them. However, last two games had one thing in common with the first two games of this series, which we’re going to try and jump aboard with before it’s too late.
Even though their first meeting from Portland this season finished at 106-105, the first half was pretty high scoring with a combined 117 points. What has followed is even more first half points. These two teams averaged 124.3 points per first half over their last four games against each other and even if you take away the game at the end of the regular season that doesn’t matter, they have combined for an average of 123 points per first half over two playoff games and that trip to Portland in late-April.
With Portland ranking as a top-10 offensive first half team this regular season and with the Nuggets posting the fourth-best road first half offensive rating, I think the over keeps cashing here in the first 24 minutes. If defense comes to play, it will likely be the second half in a pivotal Game 3 in a tied series. These two teams have proven this season and postseason that good offense beats good defense a majority of the time and they both qualify for that distinction.
We may not see offense beating defense for four quarters in this game, but I think it will be true for at least the first two quarters.
NBA pick: Over 116 1st Half (-110) at BetOnline