Notre Dame made it to the College Football Playoff last year after playing in the ACC, but they are back to being an independent. Still, they begin their 2021 campaign with a test against Florida State, a former ACC powerhouse.
Sunday, September 05, 2021 – 07:30 PM EDT at Doak Campbell Stadium
Like the rest of last year’s CFP teams, Notre Dame is making a change at quarterback this year. Ian Book is now in the NFL, opening up a spot on the starting roster under center. Brian Kelly is going with Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan.
Coan is seen as a game manager, which isn’t a bad thing. With Notre Dame’s run game and defense, they can win a lot of games by not making mistakes. However, can they cover the spread vs. FSU without a playmaker under center?
The Fighting Irish used to be double-digit favorites against Florida State, but they are now favored by 7.5. Here are keys to cover and an NCAAF pick for Notre Dame’s season opener. Both teams have high hopes, but only one can cover the spread.
Notre Dame has a traditional run game. It opens up the pass game with a strong offensive line and a dynamic back. The running back part of the equation is set with Kyren Williams. Williams is one of the best-returning backs in college football, and he will need to have a strong game if he wants to lead Notre Dame to a big win.
The piece of the puzzle that is really questionable is the offensive line. Notre Dame is starting Blake Fisher, a true freshman, at left tackle. With Book under center, this wouldn’t matter much. With a true pocket passer, you have to have a clean pocket. Coan needs to trust that his blindside is safe, and that falls on Fisher.
Look for the Fighting Irish to stay ahead of the chains. They’ll use Kyren Williams on first down to make things easier for the transfer quarterback. Coan has the experience, but he’s still less experienced than Book was.
Notre Dame’s leading returning senior is a tight end. For the offense to work, someone will have to step up in the passing game to make Coan’s job easier. He can’t cover the spread by himself.
Florida State needs stability. That’s something they’ve lacked since Jimbo Fisher went to Texas A&M. With Norvell returning for another year, maybe FSU will finally have that.
A three-six season is tough, but Florida State should be better this year after returning ten starters on offense. Another key for this game is that they play at home. The crowd will play a role, and that should help them with momentum.
On offense, we need to see what they do at quarterback. You would assume that McKenzie Milton would be the starter after transferring, but he was listed as a co-starter on the offensive depth chart. That means he may not see the field.
If Milton does play, he’ll need to be prepared mentally. After a gruesome injury, it is hard to take hits without hesitation in football. If he’s thinking about getting hurt, he won’t be able to perform.
On defense, FSU needs to avoid mental errors. Notre Dame will want to slow the pace of the game and win on the ground. You can stop this with a formidable front, but the real question is if Florida State will make mistakes that lead to big plays. If so, they have no chance of winning this game.
Florida State really wants to be on the rise, but nothing from this offseason suggests that now is their time. Not having a starting quarterback is worrisome, and returning ten offensive starters doesn’t help when their offense only scored 25.8 PPG last year.
The defense concerns me, and I don’t think the home-field advantage is enough to keep things close. It will be close for a bit but expect Notre Dame to grind this game out and cover the spread in the end.
NCAAF prediction: Notre Dame -7.5 (+100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.