North Carolina would be eliminated from contention to reach the ACC title game if the Heels lose at No. 25 Pittsburgh on Thursday. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Thursday, November 11, 2021 – 07:30 PM EST at Heinz Field
This matchup between North Carolina and No. 25 Pittsburgh from the ACC is the lone college football game on Thursday this week and televised by ESPN. The Panthers lead the Coastal Division by at 4-1 in league play, so if they win out, they will be in the ACC title game. North Carolina is 3-3 in ACC play and would need to win out and get a minor miracle to win the Coastal Division
Another intriguing storyline here is the matchup between quarterbacks in Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett and North Carolina’s Sam Howell. They could be the first two QBs taken in the 2022 NFL Draft. UNC leads the all-time series 10-4. Because the ACC changed up its scheduling last season in the pandemic and with Notre Dame in the conference for one year only, the Heels and Panthers didn’t play as divisions were done away with for 2020.
Pitt won the last matchup at home also on a Thursday night in 2019, 34-27 in OT. Pickett threw for 359 yards and a TD and rushed for two scores. Howell threw for 322 and three TDs. North Carolina is 5-2 against the spread on the NCAAF odds in the past seven meetings.
ACC officials probably are furious with North Carolina (5-4) right now. Why? The Heels likely assured that the league would not get a team in the College Football Playoff for the first time. That’s because UNC knocked off the ACC’s final unbeaten team, Wake Forest, 58-55 on Saturday – that actually was considered a non-conference game. The in-state rivals wanted to play each other because they weren’t scheduled to by the ACC due to being in opposite divisions.
Carolina trailed the Demon Deacons 48-34 entering the fourth quarter but scored 24 unanswered for a 58-48 lead. Wake got a TD with 37 seconds left but couldn’t recover the onside kick. Having scored 58 points, one would expect that Heels star QB Sam Howell had a huge passing day but he only had 216 yards and a TD.
Howell did run for 104 yards and two scores. It was his fourth 100-yard rushing game of the season and he became the program’s all-time total yardage leader. Ty Chandler rushed for a career-high 213 yards and four scores. UNC totaled 546 yards but allowed 615.
Heels defensive back Storm Duck – yes, that’s his name and it’s awesome – returned from injury and: "Storm Duck was a difference," Coach Mack Brown said. "We lost Don Chapman for the year. Storm hadn’t played in a year and a half, and he did a great job covering."
Linebacker Jeremiah Gemmel was ejected from Saturday’s game for targeting but because it happened on the final play of the first quarter, he won’t have to miss the first half of this game. He would have if it happened in the second half.
North Carolina is 2-8 ATS at BMR’s top-rated books in its past 10 after a win.
Pittsburgh (7-2) had little trouble winning at Duke on Saturday, 54-29. Kenny Pickett, a top candidate for ACC Offensive Player of the Year, threw for 416 yards and three scores and rushed for a touchdown. It was his 14th career game with at least 300 passing yards, tying a Pitt record held by Alex Van Pelt (1989-92). Pickett’s five career 400-yard games are a school record.
Maybe no quarterback in the country has improved his draft stock more this year than Pickett. He’s +700 at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks to be the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft.
Pickett has one of the nation’s top receivers in sophomore Jordan Addison and he caught seven balls for 171 yards and a TD vs. Duke, his fifth 100-yard game of the season. Pitt rushed for 220 yards, the 28th time under Coach Pat Narduzzi the school reached 200. It is 22-6 in those games.
Pitt finished with 636 yards of total offense, its sixth-highest yardage total in a game in program history. It has scored at least 50 points four times this season; Pitt last scored at least 50 points in four games in the same season in 1905 when it scored at least that many five times. The Panthers are averaging 45 points per game, which would crush the previous school record of 40.9 in 2016.
One of the Panthers’ top defensive players, tackle Keyshon Camp, left in the first quarter with a leg injury and his status is TBA for Thursday; obviously, the quick turnaround won’t help. Camp has 14 tackles, a sack, a fumble recovery, a forced fumble, and a QB hit. He’s part of the reason that Pittsburgh ranks No. 15 against the rush nationally, allowing 107.1 yards per game. Cornerback AJ Woods and offensive tackle Gabe Houy also left injured.
The win over Duke got Pitt back into the Associated Press Top 25 at No. 25. Simulations we have run have the Panthers winning by a TD so we will give the points.
NCAAF Pick: Pittsburgh at -6 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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