Top NFL Pick: David Njoku Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Wild Card round gets going this Saturday with a pair of AFC games. We are looking at how the Cleveland passing offense will attack a Houston defense that just let Amari Cooper post a franchise record in Week 16. In the night game, the Chiefs and Dolphins will search for some offense in what could be one of the coldest games in NFL history.
We scoured the top-rated offshore sportsbooks to find our favorite player props for Saturday’s Wild Card action. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
Saturday, January 13, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at NRG Stadium
Amari Cooper (Cleveland Browns)
Does that say to take the under for the receiver who set a Cleveland record with 265 yards against this defense in Week 16? Yes, but hear me out.
Everybody knows Cooper just had 265 yards against this defense in a fantastic performance. But that includes the Houston defense and coaching staff. DeMeco Ryans may ultimately lose out on Coach of the Year to Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski, but Ryans knows enough about defense to know they have to adjust to shutting down Cooper this time.
Postseason Reckoning
In NFL history, there have been 20 instances of a receiver torching a defense for at least 175 yards in the regular season and having to face that same defense in the postseason. On average, those receivers go from 212.5 yards to 63.6 yards in the rematch, a decline of 146.4 yards in the playoffs.
Only Tim Brown (1993 Raiders vs. Bills) and Michael Haynes (1991 Falcons vs. Saints) were able to break 100 yards in the playoff rematch. The other 90% of receivers finished under 95 yards.
Twelve of the 20 receivers (60%) were held to under 73.5 yards in the playoffs. There were 2 recent high-profile cases of this:
- In 2020, Tyreek Hill (Chiefs) had 269 yards and 3 touchdowns against Tampa Bay in the regular season. While in Super Bowl 55, the Bucs held him to 73 yards and the Chiefs never scored a touchdown (decline of 196 yards).
- In 2021, Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) destroyed the Chiefs with 266 yards and 3 touchdowns in a late-season matchup. A few weeks later in the AFC Championship Game, Chase only had 54 yards and a touchdown (decline of 212 yards).
Hill and Chase are better receivers than Cooper too, who has been infamous for some duds in his career. Cooper has 18 career games (1 postseason) where he did not have more than 10 receiving yards. Cooper has not surpassed 65 yards in 3-of-4 career playoff games.
The Pick
The other reason to like the under is that Cooper injured his heel in his record-setting Houston game and has not played since. He missed the Jets game in Week 17, then he sat out Week 18 for playoff rest. He is hoping to get enough practice in and play well in this game. Although no one knows for sure how he’ll perform post-injury.
It would be very surprising if Houston learned nothing and didn’t get a much better game from the secondary this time. Also, keep in mind that the Texans were down their top 2 pass rushers (Will Anderson and Jonathan Greenard) in Week 16. Both are hoping to be available on Saturday. That can make it harder for Joe Flacco to find his receivers, including Cooper.
NFL Pick: Amari Cooper Under 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
David Njoku (Cleveland Browns)
If you think we are crazy with the Coope having a down-game pick, then have no fear, we have 2 picks with a beneficiary in mind.
Tight end David Njoku should pick up the slack after he only had 44 yards on 6 catches and 9 targets in that Houston game in Week 16. But he did score a touchdown, and Njoku has quickly earned Flacco’s trust.
With Flacco, Njoku has already had a game with 91 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Jaguars, a 10-catch game for 104 yards and a score against the Bears, and he had 6 catches for 134 yards against the Jets (very good secondary) with Cooper out.
Njoku finally had his breakout year for the Browns in 2022, and in Year 7, he has been even better with 81 catches for 882 yards (career highs). He is the closest thing we have to old San Francisco tight end Vernon Davis, who took a while to break out but had a strong career once he did. Njoku is very athletic, can hurdle with the best of them, and he is fun to watch.
The Pick
Njoku has had a catch of at least 21 yards in 4 straight games with Flacco as his quarterback. We like him to produce another long play here to hit over 19.5 yards as the defense pays closer attention to Cooper.
The Houston defense allowed 107 catches to tight ends this year, tied with Cincinnati for the most in the league. The 1,024 yards allowed is the 5th most to tight ends. The Colts had some good play designs for their tight ends last week, but they couldn’t make the throw or catch on some of them.
The Browns are thriving right now with Flacco and Njoku, and they will hook up for over 54.5 yards in this one.
NFL Pick: David Njoku Longest Reception Over 19.5 Yards (-115) at Bovada
Joe Flacco (Cleveland Browns)
The last time Joe Flacco started a playoff game, it was January 2015 and he was in New England, nearly pulling off another road upset. He finished that game with 45 pass attempts. Surprisingly, it was the only time in his 15 playoff starts where he threw more than 36.5 passes.
Amusingly, the line this week for his attempts is set to 36.5. But the Flacco of recent years has been a high-volume passer who needs all those attempts to be even remotely productive in a game.
This year, he joined the Browns and immediately threw at least 42 passes in 4 straight games with his new team. He only threw 29 passes against the Jets in his last outing, because that game was largely decided by halftime.
But Flacco usually has no problem clearing this mark in attempts. He started the first 3 games of the 2022 season for the Jets and threw 59, 44, and 52 passes in those games.
The Pick
Flacco threw the ball 42 times in Houston in Week 16, a good sign in a game where the Browns led 36-7 in the 4th quarter. But it could happen again out of necessity as the Cleveland running game was stopped cold that day. The running backs combined for 27 carries for 58 yards.
Between relying on Flacco’s volume, the potential of not having a good ground game, and the potential that C.J. Stroud makes this a shootout, we like the over for Flacco’s attempts again.
NFL Pick: Joe Flacco Over 36.5 Passing Attempts (-120) at Bovada
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, January 13, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
Saturday night could be the coldest game in the NFL since 2016 should temperatures drop under 0 degrees. It could be the coldest game the Chiefs have ever played as well as the Dolphins for that matter.
This is a small sample size, but Patrick Mahomes has played in 4 games where the temperature was under 20 degrees. In those, he did not complete more than 22 passes in any of them. In the last 3 occasions, he did not break 17 completions, including a game in 12-degree weather against Seattle in 2022, where Mahomes was 16-of-28 for 224 yards.
We know Mahomes has never lost this early in the playoffs. On the other hand, the Kansas City offense has also never been this unimpressive as we’ve seen this year. Even in the last game with starters in Week 17 against Cincinnati, the offense was held to 6 field goals.
Mahomes only threw for 185 yards against the Dolphins in Germany in Week 9. He was 20-of-30 passing that day, and that was actually one of the best days for Kansas City’s receivers. They had just 1 dropped pass after leading the league in that category with 39 drops this season.
The Pick
Catching a frozen ball is a little tougher than a normal ball. The Chiefs have enough offensive issues to begin with. Adding in the elements for one of the coldest games in history should only make it harder to produce in this matchup.
Look for the Chiefs to rely more on running Isiah Pacheco and maybe work in longer pass plays like they did against the Bengals in Week 17, another game where Mahomes was held under 23.5 completions. He can work on the passing game in the divisional round. Just survive the cold and beat the Florida team by being more physical this week.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 23.5 Pass Completions (-105) at Bovada
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
Tua Tagovailoa avoided injuries this season. Meanwhile, he also figures to be the next quarterback in line to sign a huge extension with his team. Too bad the rest of the Dolphins have caught the injury bug, and Tagovailoa is not earning that money by showing up in the big games.
The Dolphins blew their shot at home to win the AFC East and claim the No. 2 seed last week against Buffalo, a 21-14 loss that fits the pattern of Miami’s other losses in big games this year. The offense underperforms and the defense gets pushed around.
Tagovailoa had a shot to lead a game-tying or go-ahead touchdown drive, but he threw a bad interception to end the game. Now the Dolphins have to travel to Kansas City on a night where it could drop well below 0 degrees.
Miami has lost 10 straight games where it was under 40 degrees. Although Tua was the quarterback for only 30% of those games. But we have seen him throw bad picks this season. He has been picked off in 10-of-17 games, including 6-of-8 road games.
The Pick
One “road game” where Tua was not intercepted was against the Chiefs in Germany, which was a neutral field. Miami’s big mistake that day was a lost fumble by Tyreek Hill. Then a bad snap on 4th down with the game on the line that Tua had to eat.
But the Chiefs have played great defense this year. They usually excel at Arrowhead with the pass rush, and they could easily force Tagovailoa into a mistake like a pick in the coldest game of his career. We’ll take our chances with Tua tossing them at least one.
NFL Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-120) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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