What was that Paula Abdul song? Opposites Attract, right? It has a catchy little lyric, “I take two steps forward, I take two steps back.” Now, all the people old enough to recall that 1990 smash hit will have an earworm of that song for the rest of the day. You’re welcome!
Well, that’s kind of how I’m feeling at the midpoint of the season, although I wish we had a bit more of the two steps forward variety. Last week, we went 1-2 against the number when both the Giants +7½ and Falcons -7 absolutely flamed for three and four units, respectively. Notice it’s always “we” when “we” lose?
However, in “my” lone winner of the day, “I” hit paydirt with “my” first total of the season when the Broncos and Cowboys soared over the posted 50½ when they combined for 68 points, which earned “me” four units.
When the dust settled, we lost 4.22 units for the day, and I find myself in familiar territory, as last year, about this time, I was in an even worse predicament, down over 26 units entering Week 9 of the 2024 season, yet came out on top when it was all said and done.
This week’s best NFL picks from some other BMR cappers can also be found in case you’re looking for a fresh perspective.
There’s only one thing to do, and that’s keep plugging along and reveal our NFL picks Week 9, but with no bold claims of a sweep. Hopefully, we will begin to claw back from our hole. We did it last year, and dammit, we’ll do it again this season. Let’s go!
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 10-15 ATS (-19.62 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
NFL Picks Week 9 At-a-Glance
I will rely on what has been most successful for me this season, fading bad teams. Therefore, my strategy for this week’s NFL picks is finding poor teams that are in an unenviable spot to cover despite the hospitable head start granted by the oddsmakers.
Also note these are all early afternoon games, so we will be able to celebrate when cocktail hour begins around 4:00 PM ET.
Below are our NFL picks for Week 9.
Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 2 – 1:00 PM EST
That’s right, I’m square as a microwave. I’m wearing that shoe because it fits just right, but I have a sneaking suspicion the public will crush the books this week. Therefore, would it surprise you to know that the biggest favorite on the board is directly in my crosshairs? Of course not! I am laying the lumber with the Packers because they are coming off an impressive win, but more than that, the Panthers stink!
Speaking of which, Carolina got their asses kicked last week when the Bills delivered a 40-9 beatdown. I have no idea how Andy Dalton, Carolina’s backup QB, or a hobbled Bryce Young, who may return earlier than suggested, will be able to score against the Packers, considering the Cats’ offensive line is decimated and there is a dearth of offensive weapons.
Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love will be able to make reservations for a fine dining steakhouse while he’s lounging in the pocket and calmly choosing his best target. Carolina just doesn’t generate any pressure, and their secondary is unimpressive, to say the least. Needless to say, points will come in bunches for Green Bay.
Oh, and don’t forget, the Packers put up 35 points last week against a much stouter Steelers defense. Let’s watch this massacre unfold and cash a ticket!
Expert Pick: Packers -13 (-115) for 4 units at BetOnline
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (-8)
Sunday, November 2 – 1:00 PM EST
I thought the Vikings were going to be a dark horse this season, but they have been riddled by injuries to their offensive and defensive lines, which has dampened any hopes I had that they might make a deep postseason run.
Whether it’s Carson Wentz or the banged-up “rookie” JJ McCarthy, neither will get any relief from a relentless Lions pass rush. This alone could win the day for Detroit, as you just know that the Vikings will be making more turnovers than Pepperidge Farm.
As for the Lions offense, Jared Goff is a master when the blitz is on, and no one blitzes more than the Vikings’ DC, Brian Flores. Check these Jared Goff stats out when he’s blitzed. Goff has completed 75 percent of his passes for a stunning 9.2 yards per pass, with five touchdowns and zero picks.
And for those who are partial to trends, consider that Detroit has won its last five meetings against Minnesota and covered in nine straight games when playing the Vikings!Let’s not sweat it, let’s bet it, and watch the Cats maul the Vikes.
Expert Pick: Lions -8 (-115) for 4 units at Bovada
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans (+8½)
Sunday, November 2 – 1:00 PM EST
This is the third leg of my uber-square trifecta of NFL picks this week. The Titans are the worst team in the league, and they will be getting a healthy Chargers squad invading Music City this week. Good luck, boys; it’s going to be a long afternoon. The Chargers’ Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman will be a nightmare for rookie Cam Ward.
So, here’s the deal. Joe Alt returned as Justin Herbert’s blindside bodyguard, and his impact was immense. The Bolts tore the Vikings a new one with Alt as LA’s backfield chief bouncer, beating Minnesota 37-10. Now, consider that the Titans generate no pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and Tennessee’s only ray of hope is defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, who will likely be sidelined with a hamstring injury.
Once again, we’re laying north of a touchdown, but it’s well worth it.
Expert Pick: Chargers -8½ (-110) for 4 units at Bovada
The Woodman’s Picks (6-2 ATS)
The Woodman backed the Bears last week, and what did they do to repay him? They mauled his bankroll after falling to the Ravens, 30-16. That was even outside the margins of the generous 6½ points the oddsmakers were giving him.
However, let’s give the man credit. He’s 6-2 against the spread entering Week 9, and I know we’d all love to be capping at a 75% clip. So I will sit up and take note when he advises anyone who will listen to bet the farm on the upstart Indianapolis Colts as they invade Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers.
The Woodman’s Week 9 NFL Pick: Colts -3 (-110) at BetAnything
Start a New Sportsbook Account
The NFL picks Week 9 I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads you see written here on the Packers, Lions, and Chargers game may not be around by gametime.
Therefore, it is essential that you obtain the sharpest line available, and the only way to do that is to immediately bet on the games and ensure you have an active account.
That’s right, make certain your account is funded, and perhaps get accounts at two or more sportsbooks like BetOnline and Bovada so you can compare the numbers. Shop around, dare to compare, and make sure to get down at a place you trust and at the best offshore lines or odds available.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
