NFL Pick: A.J. Brown Over 88.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 8 schedule has some key division rematches in Eagles-Commanders and Chiefs-Broncos with the road teams favored by a full touchdown. We also have our eyes on the Jaguars and Steelers facing off as a 2-loss teams in Pittsburgh, a solid NFC matchup with the Rams-Cowboys, and we are giving Derek Carr a shot to redeem himself in Indianapolis.
We have a handful of our favorite player props for Week 8, which you can always find at top-rated offshore sportsbooks. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 29, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at AT&T Stadium
Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)
We will keep playing this one until it hits. Dak Prescott has not thrown multiple touchdown passes in a game since Week 2 against the Jets, which is bizarre since that was one of the best defenses he has faced in 2023.
It looked like Prescott would end the streak against a bad defense like the Chargers in Week 6, but he just so happened to have a long rushing touchdown on a 4th-down play early in the game, then the Cowboys finished with just 20 points in a low-scoring win before the bye week.
But Prescott has now gone 4 straight games without throwing over 1.5 touchdown passes. It is tied for the 2nd-longest streak in his career, and he has not done a streak like this in the same season since he was a rookie in 2016.
The streak needs to end if Dallas wants to get to where it wants to go in the playoffs.
The Pick
The Rams are not the greatest opponent to end this streak against, because the Rams have allowed a league-low 4 touchdown passes. However, the Rams have allowed 9 rushing touchdowns and rank average at best in many defensive categories. They are not an elite defense by any means. Tony Pollard also has just 2 touchdowns this year, so it’s not like he is stealing a lot of chances from Prescott at the goal line.
Dak is too talented with too many good receiving options for this streak to go another week. We’ll trust it to end at home against the Rams for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115) at Bovada
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 29, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lucas Oil Stadium
Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints)
Do you know who is struggling even more than Dak Prescott to throw touchdowns this season? Derek Carr is 6th in pass attempts (255) with the Saints but only ranks 29th in touchdown pass rate (2.4%), which would easily be the lowest season of his career.
The only game where Carr threw 2 touchdown passes this season was in New England, which again is an odd choice given it was a Bill Belichick-coached defense. But in Carr’s defense, he would have had 2 touchdown passes against the Jaguars in Week 7 if Foster Moreau held onto a 3rd-down play in the end zone in the closing seconds of that 31-24 loss.
Derek Carr has struggled but maybe the 10 days off will help him get right for this trip to Indianapolis where he threw 2 touchdown passes last year in a game with the Raiders.
The Colts are the only team to score at least 20 points in every game this season, so this could turn into an unexpected shootout. Probably not like the 39-38 game the Colts had with Cleveland last week, but the Colts are ranked 30th in points allowed and really struggling on that side of the ball.
The Pick
The headline should be Carr bounces back against bad defense. That does not guarantee a win by the Saints, or that he’ll outplay Gardner Minshew in this game, but this is a good spot to give Carr one more chance to prove he can make this passing game work and win what looks like a very winnable NFC South division with four bad teams.
NFL Pick: Derek Carr Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115) at Bovada
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
Sunday, October 29, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at FedExField
A.J. Brown (Philadelphia Eagles)
Does anyone know why the Tennessee Titans traded 26-year-old A.J. Brown to the Eagles in 2022? It continues to be a baffling trade as Brown has been nothing short of incredible for Jalen Hurts and this passing game.
Brown is so good that it arguably has stunted the development of DeVonta Smith because Hurts just wants to throw it to Brown every week. The results have been in support of it as Brown has gone over 125 yards in 5 straight games, tying an NFL record that the great Calvin Johnson last did for the Lions. A 6th-straight game of 125 yards would give Brown sole possession of the record streak, so that is something to keep in mind for this game.
It’s also a Washington defense that Brown torched for a season-high 175 yards and 2 touchdowns to begin October. Jack Del Rio-coached defenses have breakdowns every week, and a passing duo as strong as Brown and Hurts right now can take full advantage of that.
The Pick
The great thing here is that it’s not like the line is 124.5 yards. Even if Brown falls short of making history with the streak, he only needs to top 88.5 yards to hit his over again. Given the way Hurts passes for over 270 yards every week now, and the state of the Washington secondary, we like Brown to do something special again and roast the Commanders.
NFL Pick: A.J. Brown Over 88.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 29, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Acrisure Stadium
Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers)
We have the opponent and game script in mind with this pick. Jaylen Warren has proven to be an excellent change of pace from Najee Harris in Pittsburgh, he is a better traditional receiving back, and some of his runs have been very timely for this offense this season.
When the chips are down in the 4th quarter as they often are for Kenny Pickett, one of his favorite targets is Warren, who the Steelers will use on screens, swing passes, and checkdowns over Harris in critical moments.
Last week in Los Angeles, Warren had his least productive game as a receiver this season with 2 targets and 1 catch that lost 1 yard against the Rams. But he is facing the Jaguars this week, and they allow the most targets (60), catches (51), and 4th-most receiving yards (334) to running backs this season.
The Pick
Picture another game where the Steelers are down in the 2nd half and need a spark on offense. Warren is the answer as the Jaguars just try to play it safe and not let wide receiver George Pickens hit any big plays down the field. Diontae Johnson is also possibly out again with a hamstring injury, so the Steelers are short on reliable targets.
We’ll take Warren for over 19.5 yards as a reliable target for Pickett this week.
NFL Pick: Jaylen Warren Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 29, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at Empower Field at Mile High
Isiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs)
If Taylor Swift is not making the road trip to Denver, then maybe Travis Kelce will allow his teammates more touchdown chances. There is also the fact that Denver’s defense while improving from the unit that gave up 70 points to Miami, is not a good one this year.
Running back Isiah Pacheco has scored a touchdown in 4-of-5 games for the Chiefs, but the game he did not score was the 19-8 win over Denver in Week 6. But that might say more about that ugly game than it does about Pacheco, who had 22 touches for 98 yards on a good night for him.
Isiah Pacheco is playing 54% of the snaps this season after he played 31% as a rookie last year. He has 100 carries compared to 32 for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and 9 for Jerick McKinnon as the other backs in this high-powered offense.
The opportunities will be there for Pacheco, and Mahomes has not fallen in love with the touchdown passes to McKinnon this season to think Pacheco won’t score in this one. In fact, Pacheco has as many touchdowns (4) as Kelce this season.
The Pick
Take his over in yards if you are scared, but Pacheco has a great shot to double up and hit his yardage prop and a touchdown in what should be a higher-scoring game than that 19-8 mess we watched 2 weeks ago.
NFL Pick: Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-106) at Bovada
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