NFL Pick: 49ers -7 (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL starts Week 7 with two preseason division favorites this Thursday night when the Saints host the Jaguars. Sunday night should be a good one, with the Eagles (5-1) hosting the Dolphins (5-1) in a big litmus test for both teams. Monday night sees the 49ers trying to rebound from a rare loss in Minnesota.
We have our top NFL picks for each night of prime-time games in Week 7, which you can always find at the best offshore sportsbooks.
Kirk Cousins: I Don’t Like Mondays
Quarterback Kirk Cousins has no plans to waive his no-trade clause as he wants to see things through with the Vikings, who beat the Bears on Sunday. But they have a much tougher test here with the 49ers coming in after a bad loss to the Browns on Sunday. Cousins is infamously 2-10 on Monday nights, and the only wins were in Chicago. The 49ers are not Chicago.
The 49ers are a 7-point road favorite with a total of 44 points.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Monday, October 23, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at U.S. Bank Stadium
Brock Purdy Coming off a Loss
It was bound to happen eventually. Brock Purdy started his career on cruise control until an elbow injury in last year’s NFC Championship Game handed him his only loss. But we know he never really had a chance that day after the unfortunate injury.
This year, the 49ers were scoring 30 points every week, they were 5-0, and Purdy never looked better than he did against Dallas. But the Browns have a legitimately great defense, and Purdy finally found out what losing feels like in the NFL.
In Cleveland, Purdy completed 44.4% of his passes, threw for 125 yards, averaged 4.6 yards per attempt, and had a 55.3 passer rating – all the worst marks of his career in a game he finished. Despite those stats and losing Chrisitan McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel to injury, Purdy did his job on the final drive. Kicker Jake Moody just failed to do his, missing a 41-yard field goal wide right to end the game.
Things were not going to be smooth sailing forever for Purdy, but the main thing is seeing how he bounces back from a loss the next week. The microscope will be on him again in this one, and fortunately, the Minnesota defense should help him out. The Vikings may send the blitz, but they are allowing quarterbacks to complete 75.2% of their passes this year while only collecting 3 interceptions.
This is an ideal opponent for Purdy to attack.
Captain Kirk Without Justin Jefferson
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings are in for a tough ride without Justin Jefferson, who is so far along in his development compared to these other Minnesota wideouts. Jordan Addison did a nice job in catching another touchdown last week, but he only had 28 yards against a bad Chicago defense. Kirk Cousins is going to miss Jefferson a lot in a tough matchup like this.
The Vikings also scored just 13 points on offense last week as the defense made the big return touchdown after Chicago’s backup quarterback was stripped of the ball in the 3rd quarter. The Vikings cannot count on that again. This defense had 3 takeaways in Chicago, matching their season output through Week 5.
One of the most amusing stats on Cousins that has nothing to do with Monday night games is that he’s 0-12 against teams that reach the Super Bowl that year. He could be 0-13 if the Chiefs get back as Minnesota already lost to them in Week 5. He could be 0-14 if these 49ers return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2019, a year they opened their playoff run by beating Cousins’ Vikings 27-10 in the divisional round.
Cousins’ History vs. San Francisco
Cousins is 0-2 against the 49ers in the Nick Bosa era. The 49ers may have some offensive injuries to worry about in this game, but the defense is still largely intact. Cousins lost 34-26 to the 49ers in 2021, the last meeting between these teams.
In that game, the Vikings returned a kickoff for a touchdown to conclude their scoring. Cousins had 185 of his 238 passing yards to Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, and Adam Thielen in that game. He will have none of those players on Monday night against this elite scoring defense.
The Pick
Even if the 49ers had to play this game without McCaffrey and Deebo, it is still easy to say they are better on both sides of the ball. Maybe things would be different with Jefferson available, but that is not the case for the Vikings right now. Trust the 49ers to bounce back. Last week was the perfect storm for a bad performance. This set of circumstances is ideal for another comfortable win.
NFL Pick: 49ers -7 (+100) at Bovada
Dolphins and Eagles Expected to Score Big
Here we go again with a Sunday night game where offenses have gone to die this year, but that should not be the case when the Dolphins meet the Eagles this week. Both teams rank among the top 5 in points scored this year, and they are not familiar opponents to each other, so this should be an interesting game with Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa, former college teammates, slinging it out.
The Eagles are a 1.5-point home favorite with a total of 52 points. Is this the best over bet of the week, or will this surprisingly turn into a defensive game?
Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at Lincoln Financial Field
Miami’s Historic Offense
The season is still young, but the 2023 Dolphins could end up setting some records if they keep this pace up. Tyreek Hill could have the first 2,000-yard receiving season as he is averaging 135.7 yards per game and looks like someone no one can guard in this offense cooked up by Mike McDaniel.
The only defenses that have held Miami under 31 points and 400 yards were Buffalo and New England. What do they have in common? Divisional opponents (familiarity) with defensive-minded coaches who are among the best in the game.
The Eagles are an unfamiliar opponent who has not looked as good on defense as they did last year when they had 70 sacks. This is by far the most complete offense they will have faced this year too, and we have already seen the Commanders and Vikings hang at least 28 points on the Eagles in their building. That’s Kirk Cousins without any running game and sack merchant Sam Howell.
We can agree that 70 points on Denver was a huge outlier, but the Dolphins are still the best bet to finish this season as the No. 1 offense in most categories. They should score at least 27 points in this one, and the Eagles are lucky they won’t have to see running back De’Von Achane, who remains out with injury. But Raheem Mostert just scored 3 touchdowns last week as the Dolphins seemingly get a touchdown from Hill and multiple touchdowns from a running back every week.
The Eagles Need a Big Bounce-Back Game
It is still shocking that Jalen Hurts threw that last interception to the Jets to lose that game on Sunday. The Eagles were in control almost all game long, but they never put the Jets away and were held scoreless after halftime.
It was the 2nd game in a row where the Eagles were kept out of the end zone after halftime. It’s not clear why this is happening as the offense was scoring well to start this season, and the main skill players are healthy. A.J. Brown has gone over 125 yards in each of the last 4 games, so it would be hard for him to play any better.
But Hurts has surpassed his interception total from all of 2022 now that he has 7 picks in 6 games this year. He has to control that better, and he should be expected to, as picks have not been a big problem in his career.
Winning games like this against the good offensive teams has been the problem for Nick Sirianni’s Eagles, and they get a shot against a bottom-quarter defense to show they can score too. The Dolphins are still weeks away from getting Jalen Ramsey back at corner, so the receivers should have a favorable matchup here. DeVonta Smith needs to start doing his part as it cannot be all about Brown every game. Fight speed with speed, and Smith has that in spades.
While Miami’s offense gets all the attention for the big plays and highlights, the Eagles are No. 2 in yards behind the Dolphins, and they only have 4 fewer first downs than Miami on the season. This game has 2 strong offenses, which is a rarity in the NFL in 2023.
The Pick
This is a fascinating non-conference matchup at this point of the season. The Dolphins must prove they can beat a contender given they lost 48-20 to Buffalo and are 5-0 against teams that are a combined 5-19 when not playing Miami so far. The Eagles have to show they can beat a good team with a good quarterback, something they have never done in the Hurts era.
But instead of trying to sell yourself on one side of the spread, the best bet for a game like this is to take the over and (hopefully) enjoy the fireworks this Sunday night.
NFL Pick: Over 52 (-105) at Bovada
Will Jacksonville Make It 4 Wins in a Row?
The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) have rebounded from their slow 1-2 start with a 3-game winning streak, knocking off the Colts last week in impressive fashion to take control of the AFC South. The Saints are heading in the opposite direction with a 1-3 record after their 2-0 start to the season. The defense is delivering but the offense with Derek Carr at quarterback is not.
The Saints are a 3-point home favorite with a total of 39 points. Let’s focus on that spread. The Saints have already played 3 games decided by 1-to-3 points this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints
Thursday, October 19, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
Strength Matchup: Jaguars Offense vs. Saints Defense
The Saints are certainly led by their defense, but the Jaguars are still a team you think of as being led by Trevor Lawrence. In his 3rd season, Lawrence has not taken any big leaps forward since the team added Calvin Ridley at wide receiver, but he has the Jaguars at 4-2 despite a tough schedule and some bad fumble luck.
With his trio of receivers and tight end Evan Engram, Lawrence has some luxuries in that he can play the matchups and get a big game from someone different every week. Some weeks it may be Ridley and other weeks it may be Christian Kirk or Zay Jones. It is a good problem to have.
The Jaguars are getting less efficiency out of running back Travis Etienne. He leads the league with 113 carries, but his average has dropped from 5.1 yards per rush to 4.0 yards per rush. His rushing success rate has also dropped from 50.9% to 47.8% as the offensive line has also led to an increase in sacks taken by Lawrence.
The skill players are more complete, but the lack of consistent winning up front has made the offense struggle at times, Still, the Jaguars rank 10th in scoring and have played some of the best defenses already (Chiefs and Bills).
The Saints have only allowed one team (Buccaneers) to surpass 20 points this year. It has been one of the best defenses in the league going back to the midpoint of 2022. But the Saints will likely need multiple takeaways to win this game. New Orleans is 1-3 this year when not generating multiple takeaways.
Volatile Matchup: Saints Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
Speaking of turnovers, the Jaguars have done the best job of any defense by forcing 15 of them to lead the league. Only the Texans got through a game cleanly against Jacksonville without turning it over multiple times. Even the Chiefs had 3 giveaways in Week 2.
That’s not good news for the Saints, who have turned the ball over 5 times in 2 home games this year. The Saints have failed to score 21 points in 5-of-6 games under Derek Carr. His strange mixture of combining deep shots with ineffective checkdowns has produced the worst touchdown pass rate and the 2nd-worst sack rate of his career.
The Jacksonville defense has held everyone but Houston to 21 or fewer points. Josh Allen is having a Pro Bowl-caliber year with 7.0 sacks. The run defense is very good too, so this is not a game where Carr will likely get much from his ground attack that ranks 28th in yards per carry.
The Jacksonville defense should get the better of this matchup, but we’ll see if a short week at home helps the Saints simplify things.
The Pick
While the Saints have great numbers on pass defense, they have played Ryan Tannehill, Bryce Young, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones, and C.J. Stroud at quarterback. With that much inexperience and inadequacy, it is no surprise the numbers look good. But Love, Mayfield, and Stroud already found a way to beat this defense.
Lawrence could be the best quarterback the team has faced yet, but the real reason to trust the Jaguars to cover is that Doug Pederson is a considerably better coach than Dennis Allen, and the Saints cannot be trusted to score enough points yet under Carr.
Pederson is 10-6 ATS as an underdog with the Jaguars. Allen is 2-8-1 ATS as a favorite with the Saints. Give me the better coach and quarterback to cover.
NFL Pick: Jaguars +3 (-105) at Bovada
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