NFL Pick: Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+229) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The NFL’s Week 7 schedule is a strong one with the Browns taking their historic defense to Indianapolis, the Bills looking for another win over the Patriots, the Rams hoping to get over .500 against Pittsburgh, and a great night game with A.J. Brown trying to outshine Tyreek Hill in Philadelphia.
We are also focusing on the division rivalry between the Chargers and Chiefs in Kansas City with the wide receivers under the microscope for both teams. It is always a treat when Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes duel.
We have a handful of our favorite player props for Week 7, which you can always find at top-rated offshore sportsbooks. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lucas Oil Stadium
Michael Pittman Jr. (Indianapolis Colts)
Yes, the Cleveland defense has been outstanding and just handed San Francisco’s Brock Purdy the first legitimate loss of his NFL career. But let’s not group the 2023 Browns with the 1985 Bears, 2000 Ravens, or 2013 Seahawks just yet.
The fact that this game has an over/under of 40.5 points despite the Colts’ poor showing last week and the quarterback dilemma in Cleveland is encouraging that there should be more offense than expected in this game.
It also helps that the Colts have found a way to score at least 20 points in every game this season for rookie coach Shane Steichen. While he lost Anthony Richardson to season-ending shoulder surgery, veteran Gardner Minshew might stand a better chance in the passing game against Myles Garrett and company’s pass rush.
Minshew struggled last week with 4 turnovers, but he had volume in Jacksonville as the team did not find a way to run on the Jaguars’ defensive front. Minshew passed 55 times for 329 yards, and No. 1 receiver Michael Pittman Jr. was the main beneficiary with 9 catches for 109 yards.
A Receiving Force for the Colts
Pittman Jr. has gone over 49.5 yards in 5-of-6 games this season. He often cleared that mark last year too (10-of-16 games), especially when Matt Ryan was his quarterback instead of someone like Sam Ehlinger. Yeah, the 2022 Colts tried a lot of stuff that failed miserably.
But the Browns, who have played 5 games, have already allowed 5 receivers to hit 50 yards. The Titans had two receivers who were within yards of joining that list as DeAndre Hopkins (48) and Chris Moore (41) were a little short. That happened even though Ryan Tannehill was awful in that game for Tennessee.
But Brandon Aiyuk had 76 yards for the 49ers last week despite Purdy’s struggles. Zay Flowers had 56 yards in Week 4 for Baltimore. George Pickens had 127 yards in Week 2 in Pittsburgh, and even if you exclude his 71-yard touchdown, he still had 56 yards.
The Pick
The point is it is not impossible to throw for yardage against Cleveland, and the Browns have faced some weak offenses and passing games this year. That’s not to say the Colts are a strong passing attack with Minshew but being 1-of-3 teams in the league to score 20 points every week along with Miami and Detroit ought to count for something.
We’ll take Pittman to have another 50-yard game for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Michael Pittman Jr. Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium
Gabriel Davis (Buffalo Bills)
The Patriots are known for taking away your best player and making other players beat them. They may be taking that to extremes this year, however. No. 2 receivers such as Jaylen Waddle (86), Michael Thomas (65), and Jakobi Meyers (61) fared much better against the Patriots than their No. 1 receiver teammates Tyreek Hill (40), Chris Olave (12), and Davante Adams (29). Even CeeDee Lamb of Dallas was held to just 36 yards.
This is not to say Gabriel Davis is about to have a huge game as Buffalo’s No. 2 wideout behind Stefon Diggs. With Buffalo, Diggs has beaten the Bill Belichick defense more often than not while Davis, who has a limited route tree, has rarely put up big numbers against the Patriots.
But one thing Davis is usually good for is a big play of 20-plus yards. Davis had a catch of at least 26 yards in every game this season until last week against the Giants when his longest catch was 9 yards. He finished with 3 catches for 21 yards, which is not a typical Davis line by any means.
The Pick
Davis has been up and down this year, so this could be a good matchup for him to shine. The Patriots are missing their top corner (Christian Gonzalez) and pass rusher (Matt Judon) to injuries. Buffalo will have a good game on offense this week, and part of that is getting Davis involved down the field for a big gain.
NFL Pick: Gabriel Davis Longest Reception Over 18.5 Yards (-120) at Bovada
Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at Lincoln Financial Field
A.J. Brown (Philadelphia Eagles)
Armchair analysts trying to determine what sideline conversations between players are about never seem to do a good job. Some thought A.J. Brown was arguing about targets, but that was apparently not the case as he is enjoying one of the best runs we have ever seen from a wide receiver.
Brown has gone over 125 receiving yards in 4 straight games, which has only been done 7 other times since 1970. The record is 5 straight games by Calvin Johnson in 2012.
If Tyreek Hill wasn’t on pace for over 2,000 yards with Miami, we’d be paying more attention to this streak for Brown. But he’ll get all the attention he wants for as good as he can play Sunday night when the Eagles host the Dolphins and their No. 1 offense.
Brown’s Defensive Advantage
Brown has a strong defensive matchup as the Dolphins have not been able to put corner Jalen Ramsey (meniscus) on the field yet for injury, and the defense has been underwhelming to this point.
Brown also needs to deliver a big game for his team as teammates DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are not 100% with injuries this week. It could be a battle between Brown and Hill to see who can have the bigger game to help his team win. While Hill gets so much done with speed and quickness, Brown is strong and can win contested catches.
Brown has gone over 5.5 catches in 5-of-6 games this season. There should be plenty of targets in this one for him.
The Pick
With Brown on arguably the most dominant run of his career, the health of Smith and Goedert, and the necessity to keep up with Hill and the Dolphins, this should be a big night for Philadelphia’s No. 1 receiver. We’ll play it a little safe by taking the receptions over the yardage, but Brown should have no problem hitting over 5.5 catches for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: A.J. Brown Over 5.5 Receptions (-120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)
The Rams are getting a Pittsburgh defense that has some incredible pass rushers and a lousy secondary that has struggled to cover any halfway decent receivers this year. Matthew Stafford may get sacked by T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith in this game, but you can count on him to repeatedly find Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, a duo that can be so good together if they stay healthy.
Kupp has already looked like his 2021 version that won Super Bowl MVP. In just two games back, he already has a touchdown and went over 100 yards in both games. He could get Stafford halfway to his passing over by himself.
The Rams also have some injuries to consider in the backfield, which may lead to uncertainty with the players left to run the ball. This should only implore Stafford to throw more against this poor secondary.
The Pick
Stafford’s touchdown rate (2.6%) is the lowest of his career, so he has had to throw for a lot of yards per scoring drive this season. But he has gone over 264.5 passing yards in 4-of-6 games. Stafford has not played Pittsburgh since 2017 when he threw for 423 yards in a loss with Detroit. That was a long time ago, but he is more or less the same kind of volume passer who will be looking to carry his offense with a big game through the air this Sunday.
NFL Pick: Matthew Stafford Over 264.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Rashee Rice (Kansas City Chiefs)
The standard is so high for offense in Kansas City that we are going to keep talking about what the wide receivers can do to help Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce until we see more from them.
But even in a “down year” for the offense, the Chiefs are still in the top 8 in most categories. The defense being better than ever has lessened the need for offense, but that could change when Justin Herbert is coming to town in a virtual must-win game for the Chargers (2-3), who always play the Chiefs tough.
But the answer to Kansas City’s No. 2 receiver question may be rookie Rashee Rice. He has caught 21-of-28 targets for 245 yards and 2 touchdowns this year. He is averaging 8.8 yards per target, which would be totally fine for a No. 1 wide receiver in this offense.
Rice had a season-high 72 yards in his last game at home against the Broncos. His other big game this year was at home against the Bears when he had 59 yards. We know Mahomes is looking for Kelce first and foremost, especially in the red zone, but Rice can become a dependable option and he has scored twice already this year.
The Pick
Even though the Chargers have had their bye week, they still have allowed 7 touchdowns to wide receivers this season. Only the Commanders (9) and Eagles (8) have allowed more. The Chargers have also allowed big play to wideouts as they rank 16th in catches allowed but 5th in yards allowed (1,104) despite playing 1 fewer game than most teams.
Mahomes against Herbert is always a fun offensive game, and this should be another one. We’ll trust Rice to score a touchdown with stronger betting odds from BetOnline than most other top-rated sportsbooks.
NFL Pick: Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+229) at BetOnline
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