NFL Pick: Browns -2 (-115) at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)
The NFL’s Week 7 schedule has some quality games even if 6 teams are on a bye week. The Browns take the league’s top defense to take on the Colts. The Steelers make a rare trip to Los Angeles to play the Rams. The Bills look for another win against Bill Belichick’s Patriots.
After reading through the NFL computer predictions at Bookmakers Review, we picked out our top spreads or totals for your Week 7 bets at your favorite offshore sportsbooks.
Buffalo to Own Patriots Again?
The Buffalo Bills (4-2) are an odd team with a 48-20 win over Miami and a 14-9 nail-biter against the lowly Giants last week. But the Bills have been great since 2020 against Bill Belichick’s Patriots, who are only 1-5 and struggling like never before.
The Bills are an 8.5-point road favorite with a total of 41.5 points.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium
Josh Allen Owns Belichick
Since his breakout year in 2020, Josh Allen is 6-1 against New England, authoring some of the best games anyone has ever had against a Belichick-coached defense. He has 18 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions in those 7 games, and the only loss was in 2021 when the wind was extreme in a 14-10 game where the Patriots only threw 3 passes all night.
Last season, Allen had 5 touchdown passes against the Patriots in games won 24-10 and 35-23. The Bills have struggled the last few weeks, but this team knows how to win big. Buffalo’s plus-84 scoring differential is the best in the AFC this year and only trails the 49ers (plus-97) in the whole league.
The Bills also know how to step it up for these division games in the AFC East. We already saw the Miami matchup bring out their best in a 48-20 win. Buffalo’s offense should have a good game ready for a New England defense that is making mistakes and not doing enough to create turnovers like we are used to seeing.
Belichick also hasn’t been able to figure out how to get turnovers from Allen since 2020 as evident by the 2 interceptions in 7 games.
Mac Jones Running Out of Time?
The Patriots lost 21-17 in Las Vegas last week after Mac Jones took a sack in the end zone for a safety that all but decided the game. Prior to that pass, Jones threw a nice deep ball, but DeVante Parker dropped it, another failed signing at wide receiver for this team. It has been a 3-year run of failing to provide better weapons around the quarterback.
The Patriots are averaging 12 points per game and that doesn’t acknowledge the fact that the offense has turned it over 3 times for touchdowns, so their net contributions to the scoring have been even worse.
Buffalo’s defense has suffered a lot of significant injuries in recent weeks, including Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano. But the defense has arguably been the team’s best unit over the last 2 weeks. The Bills should have a good game against Jones and this limited cast.
The Pick
The Bills have become the kings of double-digit wins in the NFL. Since 2020, Buffalo has 31 wins by 10-plus points, including the playoffs. No other team has more than 23 such wins in that time. The Bills also lead for the most wins by double digits since 2021 (22).
Division games can be weird, but the Patriots have lost 4 in a row to Buffalo by at least 12 points, which just so happens to be the margin the computer score is predicting this week. The Bills are better on both sides of the ball, and the Patriots have never been worse under Belichick. We’ll trust Buffalo to cover this time.
Score Prediction: Bills 28 – Patriots 16
NFL Pick: Bills -8.5 (-110) at Everygame
Browns Take Epic Defense to Indianapolis
The Cleveland Browns had their biggest win since the 2020 playoffs by knocking off the 5-0 49ers last week, handing Brock Purdy his first legitimate loss in the NFL. They now must travel to take on the Colts, who lost for the 9th year in a row in a road game against Jacksonville.
The Browns are a 2-point road favorite with a total of 39 points. We are looking at the spread for the favorite.
Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lucas Oil Stadium
Colts Offer Interesting Challenge for Cleveland
With rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson likely getting surgery for his shoulder that will shut things down for the season, it is going to be Gardner Minshew going forward for this team. Things did not go well in Jacksonville again with Minshew committing 4 turnovers in a 37-20 loss.
In fact, the Colts have 7 turnovers against the Jaguars (2 games) this year and only 1 giveaway in their other 4 games combined. The Colts have also scored at least 20 points in all 6 games, which is impressive given the lack of scoring around the league. They are good at fighting for points under rookie coach Shane Steichen.
But the Cleveland defense is the toughest matchup yet as Jim Schwartz’s unit is dominating teams. The Browns are allowing a league-best 3.8 yards per play. The Browns have only allowed 1,002 yards, the best 5-game start to a season in the NFL since 1972. This is historic stuff and doing it last week against the red-hot 49ers was the most impressive performance yet. Finally, someone made Brock Purdy look awful and pay for his mistakes in a game.
Minshew can probably handle this defense better than a rookie like Richardson would, but he cannot escape the pass rush as well. The Colts also haven’t figured out a plan yet for how to get Jonathan Taylor back on track at running back. It would be surprising if the Colts scored a lot of points in this game without getting major turnover help, which is what doomed the Browns against the Steelers and Ravens.
Deshaun Watson Still Around?
The Browns have started 3 quarterbacks this year and we are only going into Week 7. Deshaun Watson should hopefully come back this week, but if not, the team can roll with P.J. Walker, who made some good and some terrible plays against an elite San Francisco defense.
But Walker is serviceable, and he can do more against this mediocre Indianapolis defense than what happened against the 49ers. The Browns are missing Nick Chubb at running back, but Jerome Ford had some key runs in the 4th quarter to help beat San Francisco. They also still have Amari Cooper and David Njoku to throw to.
The Colts have allowed at least 340 yards in every game this year except for Sunday in Jacksonville (233 yards) where the Colts shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and gave Trevor Lawrence short fields.
The Pick
The computer score for this one looks good as it respects the Colts’ ability to finish with around 20 points while also acknowledging the Browns are the better team and should win this game. It would be best to lock this one earlier in the week as the spread could swing more in Cleveland’s favor as news about Watson’s return gets more optimistic.
But the Browns can win this game with Walker as coach Kevin Stefanski has proven he can elevate his quarterbacks in his offense. Oddly enough, Watson has been his toughest job yet.
Score Prediction: Browns 23 – Colts 19
NFL Pick: Browns -2 (-115) at Everygame
Steelers Learn Anything During Bye Week?
The Pittsburgh Steelers are on shaky ground at 3-2 with one of the worst offenses in the league. They will get some players back healthy from a bye week, but it is hard to say they’ll be any improved on that side of the ball. The Rams (3-3) looked more than solid in a 26-9 win over Arizona on Sunday.
The Rams are a 3-point home favorite with a total of 43 points. We are studying the under here.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Kenny Pickett Meets Aaron Donald
The Steelers are 3-2 despite being outscored by 31 points, and that is entirely on the defense keeping things close in the wins and the team getting blown out in the losses. The offense deserves most of the blame here as coordinator Matt Canada’s unit ranks dead last in first downs and still has not scored a rushing touchdown this year.
Pittsburgh is also 2-of-7 in the red zone, which is the worst in the league in both categories (attempts and touchdowns). This offense either scores on a long touchdown or it doesn’t score at all.
The Rams have been defensively adequate given it is hard to name any of the starters except for All-Pro Aaron Donald. But the Rams have been solid against the pass and just held the Cardinals to 9 points while forcing 2 takeaways. The Rams also held the Eagles to a pair of field goals in the 2nd half in Week 5, so that’s just 15 points allowed at home over the last 6 quarters.
A number like 15 points sounds like a full game for the Steelers right now, who average only 15.8 points per game – a number boosted by the defense’s 2 return touchdowns in the win over Cleveland.
Canada’s offense has never had a 400-yard game since 2021. It is not like they are going to learn how to fix this over one bye week. Count on the Steelers to put up a low total on the road.
Matthew Stafford Meets T.J. Watt
On the other side of the ball, the Rams are again doing an above-average job without a stellar roster. Sean McVay is one of the better coaches in the league. But at least he got Cooper Kupp back at wide receiver, and rookie Puka Nacua has been a great find for the team.
The running game has been hit or miss, but the Steelers are not as stout as they used to be, and Cam Heyward is still out with an injury. But the Steelers have T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, who can cause real havoc on Matthew Stafford behind this offensive line.
Stafford has taken multiple sacks in 4 straight games, including 6 sacks against the Bengals and 4 sacks against the Eagles in losses. Stafford’s 2.6% touchdown pass rate this season is the lowest of his career.
The Pick
McVay and Mike Tomlin only met once in 2019, a 17-12 win by Pittsburgh where both defenses scored a touchdown on a fumble return, and there was a safety scored. Things will hopefully not be that terrible to watch on offense this week, but the Steelers are capable of making any game ugly right now.
Trust that Donald and Watt remind us why they are the best in the game, and even if Kupp goes off on this defense, a 21-17 final is very realistic. We’ll gladly take the under 43 points for your NFL picks.
Score Prediction: Rams 21 – Steelers 17
NFL Pick: Under 43 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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