NFL Pick: Bears ML (+130) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Chicago Bears finally ended their 14-game losing streak with a 40-20 win in Washington last Thursday. The Minnesota Vikings also enter this game with a 1-4 record, and they have placed superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.
Can we trust Justin Fields and D.J. Moore to keep this offense humming against a bad Minnesota defense? The Bears have not won back-to-back games since Weeks 16-17 of the 2021 season.
The Bears are a 3-point home underdog on the NFL odds for this NFC North matchup, but we have multiple reasons why Chicago is the right upset team for your NFL picks this week.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, October 15, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field
Is Justin Fields Figuring Things Out?
Few would have imagined this game would feature the quarterbacks with the most touchdown passes in the league, but here we are. Kirk Cousins leads all players with 13 touchdown passes due in part to the Vikings being completely one-dimensional on offense (1st in passes, 32nd in runs).
But Fields has thrown 11 touchdowns, and he has the highest touchdown pass rate (7.2%) in the league right now after throwing 8 touchdowns against Denver and Washington in the last 2 weeks.
This sort of came out of nowhere as Chicago’s offense was poor and Justin Fields had just 3 touchdowns during an 0-3 start. But the reason it makes some sense is because of just how bad the Denver and Washington defenses are this year.
We know the Broncos allowed 70 points to Miami in Week 3, but they are still ranked 32nd in yards and points allowed. Their last 4 opponents have all scored 28 points at a minimum.
The Commanders have allowed at least 33 points in 4 straight games, which is a bad look for coordinator Jack Del Rio after they gave him a defense filled with 1st-round draft picks the team has made over the years. But they looked lost in covering D.J. Moore, and that was a week after they were destroyed by A.J. Brown.
Fields’ Favorable Matchup
Fields has used up his games against Denver and Washington for the year, but the good news is the Minnesota defense is not good either. They may only rank 23rd in points, but they are allowing quarterbacks to complete 76.4% of their passes for 9 touchdowns and only 1 interception.
Fields is 0-2 as a starter against Minnesota with a loss in each season of his career. But he has completed 68.3% of his passes in those games, which is better than his career numbers. His 104.4 passer rating is also very good. Fields has 20% of his 200-yard passing games against Minnesota, so this is a defense he’s had some success at playing.
But most quarterbacks have been successful against Minnesota lately, and that is why this should be another good game for Fields. The Bears will miss having running back Khalil Herbert, who is out with a leg injury, but they still have Fields as a runner and will be better prepared with the backups than they were in the Washington game when Herbert went down.
D.J. Moore on Fire, Justin Jefferson on Ice
It was a quiet game for Justin Jefferson against the Chiefs, and it did not help that he left with a hamstring injury that is going to keep him out for at least 4 weeks as the team placed him on injured reserve.
Meanwhile, D.J. Moore is enjoying the best stretch of his career in Chicago with incredible games in the last few weeks. Fields is 27-of-34 for 531 yards and 5 touchdowns when targeting Moore this season. That is 15.6 yards per target when Moore’s career average in Carolina was 8.4 yards per target.
That number will come down, but Moore has been great for Fields. The problem is not many other receivers have stepped up yet, but Cole Kmet is a solid tight end who could be big in this matchup. We saw how Travis Kelce came back against the Vikings and found another touchdown last week. The Vikings have allowed the 6th-most catches to tight ends (29).
The Vikings are not without talent without Jefferson, but it puts more pressure on rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison to step up. He has looked good with 3 touchdown catches already, but he also had a game against Carolina with no catches. He will have to do a lot more to replace Jefferson, who is averaging 114.2 yards per game this season.
Jefferson is also the player that Cousins looks to when he’s in trouble, so when you take that component away from this offense, it is hard to see the Vikings having a great game given their rushing offense is not up to par without Dalvin Cook this year.
Minnesota’s Turnovers
A big reason the Vikings are 1-4 is they have a league-high 12 giveaways on offense, including a league-worst 8 lost fumbles. You would hope the fumbles would regress to the mean, but the Vikings seem to just cough the ball up on a weekly basis. The Vikings turn the ball over on 22% of their drives, the highest rate in the league.
Chicago’s defense has struggled to force takeaways, but they did get 2 in the games against the Chiefs and Commanders. Cousins usually does not throw interceptions, but he is someone you can force into a strip sack with good pressure.
The Bears had their first game this season without a giveaway against Washington. They have a good chance of winning the turnover battle in this one, which should always give a team a winning edge in a game.
Teams Moving in Opposite Directions
Finally, we should not overlook the psyche of both teams. While they are both 1-4, they appear to be moving in opposite directions. The Vikings had those 8 comeback wins in the 4th quarter last year, but they are now 0-5 at those opportunities going back to last year’s playoff loss to the Giants. This is regression at work as the Vikings cannot buy a close win right now.
Throw in the Jefferson injury news, the rumors about Cousins being on the trade block, and it feels pretty bleak for the future in Minnesota right now.
The Bears blew that 21-point lead against Denver in Week 4, but it was still an optimistic performance for how well the offense looked for 3 quarters. It built confidence for Fields and company, and they made that carry over to the Washington game where they jumped out 27-3 at halftime and finished this time to end a painfully long losing streak.
The Pick
Going back home after finally getting a win and playing a wounded division foe should be good for Chicago, and the crowd should be more into the game. Winning cures a lot of ills, and the Bears have been starving for wins under Matt Eberflus.
The Bears are 1-6 ATS in division games under Eberflus since 2022. Let’s pick this game for them to start turning that around and earn their first winning streak since late in 2021. I’m taking Bears on the moneyline at the top sportsbooks.
NFL Pick: Bears ML (+130) at Bovada
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