NFL Pick: Cowboys -2 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL kicks off Week 6 with an AFC West rivalry game between the Chiefs and Broncos this Thursday night. The Sunday night game is yet another chance for the New York Giants to disappoint against the Buffalo Bills. The Monday night game is the really intriguing one this week as the Dallas Cowboys try to regroup against the Los Angeles Chargers, who had a bye week.
We have our top NFL predictions for each night of prime-time games in Week 6, which you can always find at the best offshore sportsbooks.
Kellen Moore’s Chance to Shine vs. Dallas
With a bye week to prepare, Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore can stick it to his old team by making the Dallas defense look weak like the 49ers did in Week 5, but Dallas should also have more success on offense against Brandon Staley’s defense, setting up an interesting Monday night battle.
The Cowboys are a 2-point road favorite with a total of 49.5 points.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Monday, October 16, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Dallas to Bounce Back?
When you see a team get blown out in prime time like the Cowboys did in San Francisco, it can be annoying to see them on the prime-time schedule the next week too. But this is an interesting game for Dallas because the Chargers are not an easy opponent by any means.
However, the Cowboys are 10-1 ATS after a loss since 2021, the best record in the league. For all of Mike McCarthy’s flaws, he has been able to rally the troops after bad outings. The only time he didn’t was in 2021 on Thanksgiving when the Cowboys lost a tough game in overtime against the Raiders in a game filled with penalty flags.
But Dallas this year came back from the upset loss in Arizona to pound the Patriots 38-3, the worst loss of Bill Belichick’s career. The Chargers are not the Patriots right now, but we know the Chargers can blow leads and mismanage games with the best of them.
The Chargers have allowed at least 24 points to every veteran quarterback faced this year, and the 8.3 yards per pass attempt allowed is the 2nd worst in the NFL. Dak Prescott just threw 3 interceptions in a game for only the 3rd time in his career. He will play better as the 49ers are just a bad matchup for this team. That has been the case for McCarthy’s whole career going back to Green Bay.
Chargers Still Have Injuries
It wouldn’t be a Chargers season without some big injuries. Austin Ekeler has not played since Week 1 but could be back for this one. Dallas actually contained Christian McCaffrey well, which was about the only thing the Cowboys did right in San Francisco. It was the passing game that killed them.
The Chargers do not have the same dominant play-action game as the 49ers. They also lost Mike Williams, their big deep threat, to a torn ACL. Keenan Allen is very good, but the Chargers have to take advantage of short and intermediate routes without Williams available.
The Chargers do not have a tackle as dominant as Trent Williams to shut down edge rusher Micah Parsons, so he should be able to have more of an impact than he did last week.
The Pick
These teams last met in 2021 and the Chargers killed themselves with penalties wiping out multiple touchdowns. Dallas won 20-17 on a last-second field goal, and this has the makings of another game where Dallas can squeak by on a field goal to cover the spread late.
Also, Dallas is 10-5 ATS (66.7%) as a road favorite since 2020, the best record in the league in that time. We can joke about McCarthy’s shortcomings against the 49ers and in January, but for a Week 6 game against the Chargers, this is right in his wheelhouse to coach his team to a nice win.
NFL Pick: Cowboys -2 (-110) at Bovada
Bills to Bully Giants Next?
We need a congressional hearing for how the New York Giants got 4 prime-time games in the season’s first 6 weeks. The latest one could be another bloodbath after Daniel Jones injured his neck in Miami, and the Bills are looking to bounce back after losing to Jacksonville in London.
The Bills are a 14-point home favorite with a total of 44.5 points. Does this have blowout written all over it?
New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 15, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at Highmark Stadium
New York Gets Ratings but Not Wins
It is hard to say what we did wrong to be punished with the Giants in prime time this often, but this has been the case for too long now.
Since 2016, the Giants are 5-24 (.172) in prime-time games, the only team to win under 25% of their appearances. Despite this consistent loss, the Giants have the 9th-most prime-time games in this span. They have more than the Lions (13) and Jaguars (8) combined. The Giants have lost 22 of their last 25 games in prime time, including 11 blowouts by 14-plus points.
When people say this year’s team is missing Saquon Barkley at running back, did they forget the Giants were outscored 60-0 in 6 quarters to start this season when Barkley was playing? Only a 21-point comeback in Arizona has prevented the Giants from being winless right now.
We have already watched the Giants in prime time this season lose 40-0 to Dallas, 30-12 to San Francisco, and 24-3 to the Seahawks. Even after the Giants got their first 3 takeaways of the season in Miami last week, they still lost 31-16 and allowed 524 yards of offense.
There is just not anything this team does well, and now Daniel Jones has a neck injury that could keep him out. Tyrod Taylor would be the next man up, but the former Buffalo quarterback has his hands full behind this offensive line. The Bills are also quite a good team despite the 3-2 record.
Buffalo Will Bounce Back
The Giants have the worst scoring differential in the NFL right now at minus-91 points. The Bills rank No. 2 in the league with a plus-79 scoring differential. They already won 3 straight games by 28 points, putting them on a short list of mostly historic teams to do so.
The Bills know how to win in blowout fashion, and they are good in games coming off a bad performance. Since 2020, the Bills are 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) in non-conference games, 7-4-2 ATS (63.6%) in games following a loss, and 15-11-2 ATS (57.7%) as a home favorite.
Buffalo had a lot of injuries on defense in London, yet it was an 11-7 game in the 4th quarter. The Jaguars likely had an advantage in playing in London the previous week while the Bills only traveled out there on Friday. It could at least explain the slow start as the Jaguars got up 11-0 quickly.
The Bills may have defensive injuries, but the offense still looks strong with Josh Allen throwing for over 100 yards to both Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis last week. The running game didn’t exist against Jacksonville, but you can count on the Bills to get back on track against a Giants team that has allowed over 120 rushing yards to everyone this year.
The Pick
The Giants have yet to lose a game by fewer than 15 points this season. The Bills have yet to win a game by fewer than 28 points this season. This feels like a perfect match for the Bills to wash out the bad taste of the London loss and get back on track with a 4-2 record. Trust the Bills to cover and for the Giants to make us find something else to watch early Sunday night.
NFL Pick: Bills -14 (-115) at Bovada
Can the Chiefs Make It 16 in a Row Over the Broncos?
The Denver Broncos brought in Russell Wilson and Sean Payton for games like this where they can end a 15-game losing streak to the Kansas City Chiefs. But things have gone poorly in Denver so far, and now the team is in danger of falling to 1-5 and out of contention early.
The Chiefs are a 10.5-point home favorite with a total of 49 points. Will the Broncos keep it close?
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Thursday, October 12, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Mahomes vs. Denver
A big reason why the Broncos have lost 15 in a row to Kansas City is the addition of Patrick Mahomes in 2017. In fact, his first NFL start came against Denver in a season finale in his rookie season, and he led the first game-winning drive of his career in that 27-24 win, a game where Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce did not play.
Since then, we have seen Mahomes beat the Broncos in a variety of ways from 10-point comebacks in the 4th quarter (2018) to the 2019 games where the defense dominated to last year’s high-scoring wins. Mahomes even dislocated his kneecap and was knocked out early of the 30-6 win in 2019, his first Super Bowl year.
Mahomes is 11-0 against Denver but that does not mean it has been easy for him. The Broncos tend to hold him below his averages for passing efficiency, and 7-of-11 games have been decided by no more than 7 points.
This year, the Denver defense is dead last in points and yards allowed, but the 70-point game against Miami has a lot to do with that. Denver’s other 3 losses were by a combined 13 points, and in last week’s 31-21 loss to the Jets, it was a 24-21 game late before a fumble was returned for a touchdown.
The Broncos can keep this competitive as they usually do against Kansas City. Even when the Broncos fell behind 27-0 last year, they stormed back and only lost 34-28 in one of Wilson’s better games for the team.
Denver Knows How to Lose Close
The Broncos are no strangers to keeping games close. Denver has blown 7 4th-quarter leads since 2022, the most in the league. That includes their last trip to Kansas City late last season. Denver has also been within one score in the 4th quarter in 19 of their 22 games since the team acquired Wilson in 2022. He lives for this stuff, and he rarely gets blown out in prime time.
The Denver offense was the worst in the league last year, but Sean Payton has helped improve this side of the ball. The Broncos are 11th in scoring, 16th in yards, 11th in net yards per pass, and 4th in rushing yards per carry.
Only the Dolphins totally outclassed Denver with their historic speed. The Chiefs could have a gimpy tight end (Travis Kelce) and they are still uncertain about what to do with their wide receivers. The Chiefs have only won 1 of their last 8 games by more than 8 points.
The Pick
The Denver defense is scary in a bad way, but the Kansas City offense is not clicking on all cylinders yet this season. Only the Chicago game saw the Chiefs score more than 27 points, and that is the only game that wasn’t decided by one possession so far.
Maybe Kelce is not 100% after such a scary injury on Sunday that momentarily knocked him out. This is a quick turnaround for him, and the Chiefs have limitations at wide receiver that have a lot to do with why the offense hasn’t dominated as much yet.
The losing streak probably has a better chance to end in a rematch at Mile High in Week 8, but we’ll take the Broncos to keep this one close enough for a cover at the NFL odds.
NFL Pick: Broncos +10.5 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
