NFL Pick: Tua Tagovailoa to have 275+ Passing Yards and Miami to Win (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 6 schedule starts Sunday with another London game where Baltimore rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers will be looking for his first NFL touchdown. We are also focusing on games with the Panthers-Dolphins, a Colts-Jaguars rematch from Week 1, the Bears looking to stack wins for the first time since 2021, and Geno Smith taking the Seahawks into Cincinnati for a big one with the Bengals.
We have a handful of our favorite player props for Week 6, which you can always find at top-rated offshore sportsbooks. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, October 15, 2023 – 09:30 AM EDT at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens)
It was a rough week for Baltimore pass catchers in Pittsburgh after they dropped numerous passes, including multiple touchdowns. Rookie Zay Flowers may not have dropped any sure touchdowns, but he had some plays go through his hands that could have led to a bigger day after he had 73 yards on 5 catches.
Flowers continues to be Lamar Jackson’s favorite target as he leads the Ravens in targets (40), catches (29), and receiving yards (317). Being healthy is also a big deal since Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman have not been 100% at wide receiver.
But one thing Flowers has not yet done in his 5 games is catch his first NFL touchdown. Flowers’ 317 receiving yards without a touchdown are the second most among all players this season. The only other player over 300 yards without a touchdown yet is DeAndre Hopkins (356), who is also playing in this game for Tennessee.
The Pick
But Lamar Jackson is having a better season than Ryan Tannehill, the Ravens are a 4-point favorite, and the receivers will want to atone for last week’s drops. This is a good spot for regression to catch up and for Flowers to score his first NFL touchdown.
NFL Pick: Zay Flowers Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+170) at Bovada
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 15, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
The Dolphins are a 14-point home favorite and expected to light up the Carolina Panthers, the only winless team remaining in the NFL.
We have a player performance double with Tua Tagovailoa passing for 275 yards in a Miami win. Tagovailoa currently leads the NFL with 1,614 passing yards (322.8 per game). He also has the highest yards per attempt (9.7) and highest yards per completion (13.6), which are stats he led the NFL in last year as well.
Tagovailoa has passed for over 300 yards in both home games this year, including 308 yards against the Giants last week despite Miami never trailing in a wire-to-wire win.
Tagovailoa has passed for at least 282 yards in 4-of-5 games this year. Only Bill Belichick’s Patriots held him to 249 yards, but the Panthers are not that good defensively. While Carolina ranks No. 5 in passing yards allowed, it is only No. 17 in net yards per attempt.
The Panthers also have not played a passing game anywhere near this explosive as Tyreek Hill looks unstoppable right now. The Dolphins haven’t even gotten Jaylen Waddle firing on all cylinders yet, but the team just set a record for the most yards of offense through 5 games in NFL history.
The Pick
Miami should definitely win this game to drop the Panthers to 0-6, but another reason to like Tua to hit 275 passing yards is that rookie back De’Von Achane is out with an injury for at least the next 4 games. Achane has been so dominant the last 3 weeks with over 100 yards in each game, hitting a 55-yard run in every game.
While the Dolphins should still have a solid ground attack with Raheem Mostert, the absence of Achane should lead to a bigger game from Tagovailoa than what he would have had with the rookie back active.
NFL Pick: Tua Tagovailoa to have 275+ Passing Yards and Miami to Win (-115) at Bovada
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 15, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at EverBank Stadium
Calvin Ridley (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Can we trust Calvin Ridley again, or will the musical chairs with Christian Kirk battling for the most targets going to continue this week? Ridley got off to an incredible start in Week 1 against the Colts when he had 8 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown.
But over the next 3 games, Trevor Lawrence was just 7-of-17 for 110 yards and a touchdown on targets to Ridley. The duo kept missing out on big plays either with inaccurate throws or drops by Ridley.
Ridley finally got back on track against a good Buffalo defense in London last week with 7 catches for 122 yards. Meanwhile, Christian Kirk has been steady with at least 54 yards in each of the last 4 games after having just 1 catch for 9 yards against the Colts in Week 1.
Here we are with another game against the Colts, who are allowing 282 passing yards per game (28th in the NFL). There should be plenty of yards to go around for the top receivers on this team.
The Pick
Some of Lawrence’s best games have been against the Colts, who he has completed 71.5% of his passes against in 5 games. His 241 yards in Week 1 were the most he’s had against the Colts so far, but the connection with Ridley looked strong last week and in that game. Let’s count on them to do it again here in a big AFC South game for first place. Trust Ridley to crack 60 yards for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Calvin Ridley Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, October 15, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field
Cole Kmet (Chicago Bears)
Sure, you can absolutely bet on D.J. Moore to hit his over (59.5) in receiving yards as he is red hot right now with 361 yards in the last 2 games alone. Moore had 230 of Justin Fields’ 282 passing yards against Washington last week as he carried the offense.
But if you want a sneaky good pick this week, look at Chicago tight end Cole Kmet, who had 42 yards and a touchdown in that game against Washington last week. Kmet has gone over 31.5 receiving yards in 4-of-5 games this year and has established himself as the No. 2 receiving option behind Moore.
Running back Khalil Herbert is Chicago’s best runner and is out for some time with an injury. That may make the Bears less inclined to lean on the run here and to keep passing with Fields as it has been working so well the last couple of games.
The Minnesota defense is also a lousy one against the pass, allowing quarterbacks to complete over 76% of their passes while only intercepting 1 pass. The Vikings have also allowed 29 catches by tight ends, tied for the 6th most in the NFL this year.
The Pick
The Bears have another good defensive matchup at home with their top running back out. Let’s trust that this offense has figured some things out and will continue to get production out of their best players. That means Kmet hitting his over again.
NFL Pick: Cole Kmet Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, October 15, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Paycor Stadium
Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks)
This is one of the harder games to get a read on this week as the Bengals have been playing a lot worse than expected, and the Seahawks are only a 2.5-point road underdog despite traveling across the country for an early start.
But Geno Smith does feel like the more reliable passer in this game right now. He is completing 68.3% of his passes this year, which is in line with the 69.8% he had last season to lead all quarterbacks.
If the Bengals do make this a track meet with Joe Burrow playing well, then Geno is game for a shootout. He did not have to do much of anything against the Giants in a 24-3 win the last we saw Seattle before its bye week. But in a 37-31 win in Detroit, Smith was 32-of-41 for 328 yards. He was also 23-of-36 for 296 yards in a 37-27 win over the Panthers.
Last season, Smith completed over 20.5 passes in 13-of-18 games (playoffs included). He is consistent and reliable in this offense, which features a great receiving duo in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
The Pick
According to Pro Football Focus, the Cincinnati defense has the lowest rate of plays where all receivers are covered this year, so there should usually be someone open for Smith to find.
The Bengals have not played many high-powered passing games yet, but Lamar Jackson did have 24 completions in Cincinnati in Week 2. Let’s root for a good offensive game with these wide receivers and for Smith to hit his over in completions.
NFL Pick: Geno Smith Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-125) at Bovada
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