Last week was a perfect example of closing line value (CLV) and why it matters for profitable betting. The Texans (+6.5), Saints (home dogs on the moneyline), and Seahawks (-2.5) all moved through key numbers, rewarding timely action. Week 5 also brought shocks, including the Patriots over the unbeaten Bills (+350), Broncos over Eagles (+200), and the previously winless Titans beating the Cardinals.
With two early wins, our season record moves to 9-1-5, and now it’s time to focus on NFL Week 6, featuring key matchups and shifting lines for bettors to track.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Sunday, October 12 – 4:25 PM EDT
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their quarterback Baker Mayfield continue to be successful in the NFL this year, and prior to last week, underrated by the betting market.
This week, the Buccaneers have finally been rated higher by the sportsbooks, with the look-ahead line of 2 traveling to the key number of 3. But the San Francisco 49ers themselves are no pushovers, especially with Mac Jones stepping in for star QB Brock Purdy.
The key to trusting the 49ers this week is their wide receiver Jauan Jennings expected to come back from injury, along with WR Ricky Pearsall.
Bettors can take advantage of this shift in the market by keeping an eye on the live odds for this game, and considering taking the 49ers +3 (-115) at Bovada.
Tennessee Titans vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5)
Sunday, October 12 – 4:05 PM EDT
Last week, we played the bargain basement game where the New Orleans Saints beat the New York Giants for readers. This week, we revisit a similar scenario as the Titans visit the Raiders.
The only difference this week is that we are looking at the total for these two out-of-form teams. Yes, the Titans had a backdoor win and cover at the Arizona Cardinals after the Cards completely capitulated in the fourth quarter to a 22-21 loss after leading by 21-6.
The Raiders themselves imploded in a similar position the week before the Chicago Bears, but the problem for Titans supporters is the spread has tightened from the look-ahead to 6 to 4.5 through the key number of 5.
It would be worrying if Brock Bowers were to return healthy at tight end for the Raiders, but that seems like a pipe dream, so you may want to consider taking the under in this matchup.
New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints (+3.5)
Sunday, October 12 – 1:00 PM EDT
Both these franchises have been upgraded by the market after their recent wins, but the New England Patriots have been upgraded the most through the key number of 3.
The Pats quarterback, Drake May, found himself pressurised in the pocket by the Buffalo Bills last week but still did excellently in their win on the road over the Super Bowl favourites, and this week, he will find he has more time on the football in New Orleans.
That factor, along with the Saints quarterback, Spencer Rattler’s confidence growing by the week, is enough to suggest the points total is a little too low at just over 45.
Betting the spread or money line is awkward in this matchup of up-and-coming franchises, so keep an eye on the live odds for this game and consider taking the over.
Getting Your Bets On!
As mentioned above, we usually get CLV when the bets go up, so the quicker you get on, the better!
The NFL live odds page is a perfect tool for finding the line in a timely fashion and placing the bet with one of our recommended sportsbooks.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
