I have always said the only one who wants to hear a bad beat story is the person telling it. Before last week, I mentioned that we had already sustained enough bad beats to last a season, but that’s where I mercifully stopped. I didn’t delve into specifics or try to avoid responsibility by saying I was giving out the wrong side because of the bad bounces, which led to bad beats.
It happened, and I owned it, despite the gambling gods having a good laugh at my expense.
Okay, and that’s fine. But after covering the Vikings -3½ for three units last week, followed by an easy winner with the Colts -7 for another three units, the late afternoon games unfolded, and we were initially thrilled to have taken the Cardinals -7 for four units as our third and final play of the day, especially when they jumped out to a 21-6 lead entering the fourth quarter.
What happened after that is mind-blowing. The immortal Emari Demercado took the ball 72 yards to the house to put the Cardinals up 27-6 before the PAT, but the problem was, he took it only 71½ feet before intentionally letting the ball slip from his hands because, after all, it’s not enough to go 70-plus yards for a touchdown; you have to look as cool as the other side of the pillow doing it.
This jackass had the touchdown called back, and the Titans got the ball. As if that weren’t painful enough, we were still covering with only minutes remaining when the Cardinals intercepted Cam Ward at their own 20-something yard line and immediately fumbled it before kicking it into their own end zone, which was ultimately recovered by Tennessee to cut the lead to two points.
At this juncture, I am rooting for the Titans to kick a field goal and win, which, of course, they did, ending the most gut-wrenching bad beat ever experienced in the NFL.
That’s the first and last time I will tell my gambling tale of woe, but it was so outrageous I had to spill and relive it just one more time. When the dust settled, we went 2-1 ATS and picked up 1.32 units. Big friggin’ deal… but I’m not bitter.
Without further ado or gnashing of teeth, let’s get on with our NFL Week 6 picks and get the sweep we so richly deserve!
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 6-9 ATS (-12.13 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
Swinger’s NFL Best Bets
These NFL best bets are based on sharp analysis and line value, with our four selections for Week 6 featuring four favorites we’re backing after researching the games and isolating these ideal spots.
As always, we hunted down the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each pick. As stated, this week, we have four NFL best bets instead of the usual three because opportunity is knocking and we are opening the door.
- Broncos -7 (-112)
- Rams -7.5 (-105)
- Chargers -3.5 (-115)
- Packers -14 (-108)
Broncos vs. Jets (+7)
In the interests of full disclosure, I am completely biased on the Broncos. I bet them in the preseason to win the division, over 9 ½ regular-season wins, and I even have them as a Super Bowl matchup exacta against Minny (+20000), Philly (+9000), and the Rams (+20000).
I root for them each week, regardless of whether I have a bet on them in that game. However, this week, we see they have a golden opportunity to get a big win. This will be the third consecutive week that I have bet strictly on favorites, and usually that’s because I’ve become fond of fading bad teams. And that is precisely what I’m doing here.
As an aside, THIS IS AN EARLY GAME! The teams will meet at a neutral field in London, so if you’re going to be hungover from Saturday night, then get down early.
The Jets own a lousy defense, and although Denver quarterback Bo Nix takes time to heat up, he should have no problem getting plenty of time in the pocket, and the Broncos’ running backs will face the sixth-most-porous run-stop unit, allowing over 140 rushing yards per game.
Meanwhile, Denver’s defense is quite the opposite, ranked 5th against the run, allowing 88.4 RYG, 8th against the pass, allowing 200.2 PYG, 1st in sacks with 21, and 2nd in points allowed, surrendering 16.8 PPG.
My only trepidation is that the Broncos are coming off a big upset win over the Eagles and may come out flat for this one. But then again, how are the Jets going to score, let alone cover the seven-point impost? They won’t.
Expert Pick: Denver Broncos -7 (-112) for 3 units at Bookmaker
Rams vs. Ravens (-7.5)
The great unwashed masses will bet on the Ravens because they’re the Ravens. It’s really that simple. It takes a while for reality to usurp perception, and while that’s happening, we will take advantage and fade the mortally wounded Ravens, who will once again be without the electric Lamar Jackson and other key players on both sides of the ball.
Given that the Texans defeated the struggling Ravens 44-10 last week, don’t you believe the talented Rams can win by eight or more points? Me too.
Expert Pick: Los Angeles Rams -7 ½ (-105) for 2 units at BetOnline
Chargers vs. Dolphins (+3.5)
As of this Wednesday night writing, only Bovada is still dealing the Bolts at -3½, while all the others have drifted to -4. Yet again, I am fading a weak sister and backing a superior team. Yes, I am laying the lumber, but no longer will I apologize for not backing an underdog just to appear sharp.
I believe the Chargers will be looking to atone for their woeful performance last week when they dropped a 27-10 decision to the Commanders in front of the home crowd. But this week, their competition tumbles down several notches as they will undoubtedly squish the Fish.
Miami lost to the Panthers, 27-24, last week. Let that stink in – er – I mean sink in. Justin Herbert may be without his stud blindside bodyguard, Joe Alt, but he will still have time for a cup of coffee in the pocket. However, if Alt does return, this bet will look even better.
Miami can’t stop a nosebleed, and they won’t stop the Chargers’ offense on Sunday, so grab the -3 ½ if it’s still there and get down on this winner.
Expert Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -3 ½ (-115) for 3 units at Bovada
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Green Bay Packers (-14)
In the absence of Joe Burrow, the Bengals traded for veteran Joe Flacco, but reports are that he won’t be ready for this week. Therefore, the Cats will once again be forced to start the not-ready-for-primetime player, Jake Browning.
Browning has been an unmitigated disaster under center, notching six touchdown passes but tossing eight picks and averaging 189 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Packers are coming off a bye week and will be rearing to go when this one kicks off.
This is the proverbial bonus play this week. I couldn’t let it go by, even though a two-touchdown spread is rare in the NFL these days. Here’s the reason the Packers may not cover this bloated number. Josh Jacobs may do all the heavy lifting, which will chew up the clock and maybe allow the Bengals to cover in garbage time.
Also, Flacco could play, and although I’m not sure he’s much of an upgrade from Browning at his age, he might view this as a fresh start and catch fire.
Nevertheless, I believe the well-rested Packers are worth a few units.
Expert Pick: Green Bay Packers -14 (-108) for 2 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Picks (5-0 ATS)
The Woodman continues to beat his bookmaker like a red-headed stepchild and did so again last week when the Vikings eked out a 21-17 win, and an oh-so-narrow cover as 3 ½ point favorites, over the hapless Browns in jolly ol’ England.
This week, he is back with what he believes is the liveliest dog on the slate, the Detroit Lions, getting nearly a field goal head start against the Chiefs at Arrowhead. The man says bet the farm, and he hasn’t been wrong yet this season.
The Woodman’s Week 5 NFL Pick: Lions +2.5 (-107) at Bookmaker
Start a New Sportsbook Account
The NFL picks Week 6 I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads you see written here on the Broncos, Rams, Chargers, and Packers may not be around by gametime.
Therefore, it is important that you get the sharpest line available, and the only way to do that is to get down immediately on the games and make sure you have an active account.
That’s right, make certain your account is funded, and perhaps get accounts at two or more sportsbooks so you can compare the numbers. Shop around, dare to compare, and make sure to get down at a place you trust and at the best offshore lines or odds available.
More Picks from Our Experts
Don’t miss Donnie RightSide’s insight into this game below. And be sure to visit our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
