NFL Pick: Isiah Pacheco Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The best game of the NFL season so far is upon us in Buffalo between the best offenses, the Dolphins and Bills. You know we have to get a player prop pick from that matchup, but we are also looking at value in games like Falcons-Jaguars and Steelers-Texans.
We have a handful of our favorite player props for Week 4, which you can always find at the best sportsbooks. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 1, 2023 – 09:30 AM EDT at Wembley Stadium
Calvin Ridley – Receiving Yards
The NFL returns to its London series for this one, and Calvin Ridley returns to sharing a field with the Atlanta Falcons, his former team before he was traded to Jacksonville in 2022. But whether Ridley is seeking some revenge on the Falcons or not for getting suspended for the 2022 season for gambling, the fact is he needs a big game for the Jaguars after a pair of stinkers.
Ridley was fantastic in Week 1 against the Colts, his first game since 2021, catching 8-of-11 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown. But over the last 2 weeks, Ridley has caught 5-of-15 targets for 72 yards as Trevor Lawrence has had to find better options elsewhere with Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram.
Ridley also has 3 drops since Week 2, including what should have been a touchdown against the Texans in last week’s upset loss. He must play better to help Atlanta avoid a 3rd-straight loss.
The Pick
Trust Ridley to make up for the last 2 weeks by having a big game against his former team. The Falcons have not been playing great passing teams, but they did allow the Lions to have a trio of 50-yard receivers last week. Ridley is still getting targets and remains a legitimate No. 1 weapon for Lawrence. There was always going to be growing pains to this connection, but this should be a better week for the receiver.
Besides, you need a good reason to get up early to watch this one Sunday morning.
NFL Pick: Calvin Ridley Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-135) at Bovada
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, October 1, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at NRG Stadium
C.J. Stroud – Intercepted Passes
With Bryce Young (Panthers) struggling and Anthony Richardson (Colts) out with a concussion for most of September’s action, C.J. Stroud is the early winner in the quarterback class in Houston.
Stroud has impressed with 906 passing yards in his first 3 starts. He is getting the job done with multiple offensive linemen out with injuries and a cast of unproven receivers.
But a surprising statistical outcome for Stroud is that the rookie has yet to throw an interception on any of his 121 passes. It would be surprising if he can keep that streak going, especially against a Pittsburgh defense led by T.J. Watt that can pressure Stroud into a mistake.
Since 1960, there have been 45 rookie quarterbacks who threw at least 100 passes in their team’s first 4 games of the season. A whopping 44 of them threw at least one interception in those 4 games. The only one who did not was Dak Prescott in 2016, and he did not get intercepted until his 6th game. Forty of the 45 quarterbacks threw multiple picks this early in the season, and 38 had at least 3 picks in 4 games.
The Pick
Young quarterbacks make mistakes, and Stroud is going to make some mistakes to learn from this year as he continues testing his arm against NFL defenses. This is a great spot to bet his no-interception streak ends against an aggressive Pittsburgh defense that has picked off veterans Deshaun Watson and Jimmy Garoppolo in the last 2 weeks.
NFL Pick: C.J. Stroud Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-115) at Bovada
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, October 1, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at Levi’s Stadium
Brock Purdy – Intercepted Passes
As we just looked at for C.J. Stroud, most quarterbacks have close to even odds on whether they will get intercepted in a game. Proven quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are both -105 to get intercepted this week while their mistake-prone counterparts Sam Howell (-200) and Zach Wilson (-165) are on the high end to throw a pick.
But in looking at the odds for this Cardinals-49ers game, a shocking number jumped out. Brock Purdy has +270 odds at Bovada to throw an interception against Arizona this week.
Is he suddenly a perfect quarterback who is immune to mistakes? While it is true that Purdy has only thrown 4 interceptions on 324 passes (twice in 278 passes as a starter), he does put the ball in harm’s way on a weekly basis. He just seems to keep getting away with it as the ball harmlessly hits the ground and the defense doesn’t catch it.
Arizona’s defense has its hands full in this matchup, but it has intercepted 3 passes this season, including a pick of Dak Prescott last week in an upset win over Dallas.
The Pick
The Cardinals may very well get steamrolled in this one, but with odds like this and respect for how competitive Arizona has been this year, let’s take a chance at some great value for your NFL picks and bank on Purdy throwing a pick.
They can be such fluky plays at times that all it takes is the right bounce of the ball for the defense.
NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (+270) at Bovada
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets
Sunday, October 1, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
Isiah Pacheco – Rushing Yards
All 3 running backs scored a touchdown for the Chiefs last week against the Bears, but Isiah Pacheco continues to get most of the touches and is the most proven runner on the team.
Pacheco has played at least 24 snaps in 14-of-15 games going back to last year. When Pacheco plays at least 24 snaps, he has gone over 55.5 rushing yards in 11 of 14 games (78.6%). He has rushed for 70 and 62 yards in the last 2 wins over the Jaguars and Bears.
The Jets have faced the most rushing attempts in the league this year, and that is largely due to their inability to hold leads with a bad offense. The Chiefs are an 8-point road favorite in this one and expected to easily outscore Zach Wilson and the Jets.
Pacheco’s hard running style should serve him well against a solid defensive front that just allowed Ezekiel Elliott (80) and Rhamondre Stevenson (59) to both rush for over 55.5 yards for the Patriots last week.
The Pick
Do not expect an aerial show or shootout in this one. The Chiefs should be physical with the Jets and put the game away in the second half with plenty of runs with their best running back. This is not a high bar for him to clear.
NFL Pick: Isiah Pacheco Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 1, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Highmark Stadium
Josh Allen – Passing Touchdowns
The Miami offense comes in with all the headlines after scoring 70 points last week, but the Bills have also scored 75 points over their last 2 games and they are converting 51.2% on third down, best in the league.
Josh Allen has been fantastic and remarkably consistent in his career against the Dolphins. In 11 meetings (playoffs included), Allen has thrown multiple touchdowns in all 11 games. That is an NFL record for most consecutive games with multiple touchdown passes against the same opponent. The only other player to have a 10-game streak was Dan Marino against the Jets.
Last season, Allen threw for 400 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Miami heat. In snowy Buffalo in Week 15, Allen threw for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 32-29 win. In the whacky wild card playoff win, Allen had 352 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Dolphins do have a new defensive coordinator in Vic Fangio, but the defense has not been impressive yet, and corner Jalen Ramsey remains out with a meniscus injury. In Allen’s only start against Fangio (head coach of the 2020 Broncos), he threw for 359 yards, 2 touchdowns, and he also ran for 2 more scores in that game.
The Pick
The Bills will go as Allen goes in this matchup. We’ve already seen him throw 3 touchdowns against the Raiders in his only home start this season. You just hope he doesn’t have a repeat of last week’s game against Washington where he threw 1 touchdown and ran for a 2nd score.
But given Allen’s historic success against Miami, the magnitude of this home game in Buffalo, and the underwhelming state of Miami’s defense, this feels like one of the best values for your NFL picks this week.
Hopefully, the game will be a classic and Allen will hit the over by halftime.
NFL Pick: Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-145) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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