After winning four of his first 29 games, Cincinnati Bengals coach Zac Taylor is 4-2 over his last six games with a pair of wins over the Steelers. The Jacksonville Jaguars have now lost 18 games in a row after losing 31-19 to Arizona on Sunday.
Thursday, September 30, 2021 – 08:20 PM EDT at Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati is a 7.5-point favorite at many of the top sportsbooks. While this is billed as a meeting between the last two No. 1 overall picks at quarterback, it was just a year ago when the Bengals were a 1-point favorite at home against Jacksonville. That goes to show how much the Bengals have improved with Joe Burrow while the Jaguars have a long way to go in earning respect for the Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence era.
It is difficult to find positives in a team on an 18-game losing streak. The Jaguars have also lost their last seven games by double-digits. But one thing the team had on Sunday that they did not do in the first two games was lead in the second half. This time it came courtesy of a missed 68-yard field goal by the Cardinals that was returned 109 yards for a touchdown to end the first half. The running game also came alive for a drive that led to a 19-10 lead in the third quarter, but Arizona erased that deficit quickly. Trevor Lawrence threw a pick-six after forcing a pass on a flea-flicker attempt and the Cardinals never looked back.
Lawrence lost two fumbles and threw two more picks to bring his turnover total to nine in three games. Lawrence came into Week 2 with a bad throw rate of 32.9% to lead all quarterbacks according to Pro Football Reference. Just as his pick-six on Sunday showed, he is a rookie quarterback trying to do too much at this point. Lawrence’s 23.3 QBR on ESPN is the third-lowest among 2021 quarterbacks, only ahead of fellow rookies Zach Wilson (22.1) and Justin Fields (7.1).
If there was another positive, the defense did not allow Kyler Murray to throw a touchdown on Sunday, and the Arizona run game only averaged 3.0 yards per carrying without breaking 100 yards. But the Jacksonville defense has shown little resistance this season, and now it will have to deal with a Cincinnati offense that piled up 33 points and 505 yards in last year’s meeting.
The Bengals are coming off a big 24-10 win in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Granted, the Steelers are not the Steelers of old, but it was an underdog win that the team earned with a sound play on each side of the ball. The much-maligned offensive line did not allow a sack, breaking Pittsburgh’s record streak of 75 straight games with a sack in the regular season.
Burrow did not have to deal with T.J. Watt, but the Steelers only had one pressure total in the game, which Burrow escaped a sack on to end Pittsburgh’s streak. The Jaguars failed to get any sacks of Murray on Sunday.
Burrow hooked up with rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase for a touchdown for the third game in a row. Tyler Boyd also had an impressive run after the catch on a touchdown as the Bengals performed well without teammate Tee Higgins available.
Burrow’s first NFL win was against the Jaguars last October. He passed for 300 yards that day and it was one of the few games he did not lose any yards on sacks. Running back Joe Mixon rushed for 151 yards and two touchdowns in one of the best games of his career. He has been solid this year and contributed 90 yards on the ground in Pittsburgh.
The Bengals can be accused of catching Pittsburgh at a good time, but Jacksonville has been a good time just about any time for the last year-plus. Cincinnati has the better quarterback, the better weapons, and the better defense, not to mention home field on a short week while Thursday night is a new experience for these Jaguars.
The Jaguars are only 6-12 ATS during this 18-game losing streak. In games that Burrow finishes at quarterback, the Bengals are 8-4 ATS. As much as I think it’d still be difficult to pick Zac Taylor out of a lineup of Costco cashiers, I am going to trust the Bengals to cover this spread with a good showing on Thursday night for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Bengals -7.5 (-105) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.