You would think that the bad beats couldn’t keep coming, but we got another kick in the teeth last week, the third one of the young season. Allow me to tell you my tale of woe. We were nipped by a hook in Week 1 when the Steelers defeated the Jets, 34-32, as we were, of course, laying 2½.
Then Week 2 came, and the Cardinals watched a surefire cover, up 20-3 at the half as 6½ point favorites over the Panthers, melt like butter in a blast furnace. The Redbirds sat back as Carolina continued to score, score, and score some more in the second half. When the dust settled, the scoreboard read Cardinals 27 – Panthers 22, and we lost a cover by 1½ points.
Last week, we had a horrible pick with the Falcons, who never even gave us the adrenaline shot we deserved when we put down our hard-earned cash on Atlanta. They were smoked, 30-0, and we tossed three units out the window.
As poor as that bet was, the three-unit wager on the Seahawks -7 was equally as brilliant. Seattle trounced New Orleans, 44-13, and we never had to break a sweat.
However, the bad beat train made a stop at Levi’s Stadium when the 49ers defeated the Cardinals, 16-15, and naturally, we were laying 1½ points! Add those three bad beats up, and we lost three games by a grand total of three freaking points!
Instead of being 7-2 ATS and up oodles of units, I am 4-5 ATS and down 2.51 units. Don’t cry for me, Argentina; I’m just a football handicapper with three NFL picks Week 4, in which I hope we don’t get bitten by the bad beat bug…again.
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 4-5 ATS (-2.51 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
Swinger’s NFL Best Bets
These NFL best bets are based on sharp analysis and line value, with our three selections for Week 4 featuring three road favorites we’re backing after researching the games and isolating these ideal spots. As always, we hunted down the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each pick.
Vikings vs. Steelers (+2)
I believe that quarterbacks, particularly rookie QBs, are judged far too quickly and harshly. With that said, I am quite certain that the Vikings are a better team with veteran Carson Wentz pulling the trigger than with the beleaguered second-year man and former first-round draft pick, JJ McCarthy.
Last week, Wentz was under center, replacing the injured McCarthy, and voila, they scored more points than they have all season. When the dust settled, it was a 48-10 decimation of the Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals.
To be fair, Minnesota’s defense had plenty to do with that lopsided margin, not only bottling up the rudderless Cats but also scoring two defensive touchdowns. Nevertheless, Wentz has another shot to resurrect his career, and the Steelers are his next victim.
Let’s not forget, this is the early game, 9:30 AM ET, and it will be played in Dublin, Ireland. There is no home-field advantage for either side, but we should note that the Vikings now have Christian Darrisaw protecting the blindside and the talented Jordan Addison making his season debut after returning from the trainer’s table and a league suspension for a DUI charge.
Those are two big keys to victory for the Vikings, and the defense also got a boost last week with a few starters returning to the ranks who will be creating havoc for Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense. Based on my recent returns, I should probably bet the Vikings on the moneyline, but we can’t keep getting nipped at the finish line, can we?
Expert Pick: Vikings -2 (-110) for 2 units at Bovada
Chargers vs. Giants (+6)
If you’ve been reading this column long enough, you know I have a penchant for fading bad teams, and the Giants fit that narrative. But just as importantly, the Bolts have some juice this year, and Justin Herbert is living up to his lofty potential.
Los Angeles is now 3-0 (2-0-1 ATS) after their 23-20 win over the Broncos last week. The only chance the Giants have of staying within the margins against the Chargers is a decent pass rush. However, Big Blue’s run-stop unit is anemic, and rookie first-rounder Omarion Hampton should see plenty of daylight.
If this shapes up the way I believe it will, then the pass rushers will be back on their heels, bracing for the run, allowing Herbert to dissect a woeful Giants secondary. I say the Bolts will put up plenty of points and easily cover this one. Lay it and like it in the Land of Leprechauns.
Expert Pick: Chargers -6 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
Packers vs. Cowboys (+6½)
So, here we are. Once again, all of my picks are backing the favorites, and I tried mightily to make a case for some undervalued dog. But I can’t, and I won’t, so call me a square; I’ll live with it as long as we sweep.
Next on our hit parade is the suddenly surging Green Bay Packers against the dreadful Dallas Cowboys, who traded away their best defensive player, Micah Parsons, to…the Green Bay Packers! Do you think Parsons wants to show Uncle Jerry he screwed up royally?
We’ll have to wait until Sunday night to watch this one, but it will be worth it. Everyone knows CeeDee Lamb will be out due to an ankle sprain suffered last week, but the Boyz will also be without the services of a pair of starting offensive linemen, guard Tyler Booker, now joining center Cooper Beebe on the IR.
We should also note that Dallas is riddled with injuries on the defensive side of the ball, which means Jordan Love is going to have a monster game. This looks like a double-digit road win for the Packers, but because the season is still early and Dallas has the home venue, we will dial it down from a maximum 5-unit play to 4 units and be happy to cash a ticket.
Expert Pick: Green Bay Packers -6½ (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Picks (3-0 ATS)
The Woodman is a perfect 3-0 against the number, reversing a temporary trend that saw him end the 2024 campaign in dismal fashion. But after consecutive years of picking winners, there had to be a clunker eventually. However, the Woodman has righted the ship and is now gunning for his fourth consecutive ATS winner.
Drum roll, please. Without further ado, the Woodman is telling all who will listen to bet the farm on the Saints getting a boatload of points against the Bills.
The Woodman’s Week 4 NFL Pick: Saints +16 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Start a New Sportsbook Account
The NFL picks Week 4 I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads you see written here on the Vikings, Chargers, and Packers may not be around by gametime.
Therefore, it is important that you get the sharpest line available, and the only way to do that is to get down immediately on the games and make sure you have an active account.
That’s right, make certain your account is funded, and perhaps get accounts at two or more sportsbooks so you can compare the numbers. Shop around, dare to compare, and make sure to get down at a place you trust and at the best offshore lines or odds available.
More Picks from Our Experts
Don’t miss Donnie RightSide’s top picks for this week below. And be sure to visit our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
