NFL Pick: Saints (+110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The days of Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers lighting it up for the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers are over. When the teams meet on Sunday, it will be Derek Carr enjoying the best defense of his career against Jordan Love in his first home start in the NFL.
In fact, Love only has 11 pass attempts in the regular season at Lambeau Field. It would make life easier on him if star running back Aaron Jones and No. 1 receiver Christian Watson could play in this game after both missed last week’s loss in Atlanta, but their hamstring injuries continue to be situations to monitor.
Still, the Packers are a 2-point home favorite as the New Orleans offense has not exploded yet under Carr. It should be another tight game in the new-look NFC, and you can find the Saints with +110 odds on the moneyline at one of the best sportsbooks like BetOnline.
We have multiple reasons why the Saints are a good upset choice this week according to our NFL computer picks, a week with many large spreads as teams start to separate.
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lambeau Field
The Saints Have a Defense for a Change
All Derek Carr ever wanted was a defense when he was with the Raiders. His average defense ranked 26th in points per drive allowed – the worst among his peers. By going to the Saints, he is enjoying what a great defense looks like as the Saints have only allowed 32 points and 1 offensive touchdown in starting 2-0.
Normally, you might say beating up on Tennessee’s passing game and a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young would not be that impressive, but the Saints have been excelling on defense under coach Dennis Allen since the middle of last season.
In fact, the Saints have not allowed 21 points in 10 straight games, the longest streak in the NFL since the incredible Seattle defense in 2013-14 did that in 11 straight games. More specifically, the Saints have not allowed more than 18 points in their last 8 games, which is only one game shy of tying the longest streak in the NFL since 2009.
In the first 2 games of 2023, the Saints have not allowed more than 285 yards or 17 points while generating at least 1 takeaway in both games. For all 9 years of Carr’s time with the Raiders, they did those things in back-to-back games on defense just once back in 2017.
Carr loves this new luxury of a defense, but the Packers do offer a better challenge than the Titans and Panthers due to coach Matt LaFleur’s offensive experience.
Jordan Love’s Inexperience
When we picked the Falcons to beat the Packers last week, we already highlighted some of Jordan Love’s tendencies this season. Against Atlanta, Love continued to be a little erratic with the ball.
- Love has been charted with a bad throw on 25% of his passes this season, the highest rate in the league.
- Love is still benefiting from the most YAC per completion at 7.7 yards.
- Love has only been pressured on 14% of his plays, the 5th-lowest rate.
- Love has not yet thrown an interception, but 25% of his passes have been thrown into tight windows, which is the highest rate in the league through Week 2.
- Love’s completion percentage is 10.8 points lower than expected based on the distance of his passes, which is the 2nd-worst mark in 2023.
*Advanced passing data from Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Reference.
Love is tied for the league lead with 6 touchdown passes, but he only threw for 151 yards in Atlanta last week. When the Packers had a minute left to set up a game-winning field goal, he could not get a first down.
Love’s inexperience and erratic play is something the Saints, a veteran defense playing very well, can exploit and force him into turnovers. He has done a good job of not taking sacks this year, but the Saints should have a better pass rush than the Bears and Falcons did.
Saints Have Very Solid Wide Receivers
While Love has been aggressive for the Packers at times, the same can be said about Carr in New Orleans, his new offense. Carr is averaging 10.4 air yards per throw, which is the deepest average throws in the league this year. He is also throwing his average pass 2.2 yards beyond the sticks, which also ranks No. 1.
Despite the deep passing, the results are not there yet. Carr has more interceptions (2) than touchdown passes (1), and he is also taking sacks at the worst rate of his career (10.4%). Carr’s sack rate was only 5.1% with the Raiders, so this should naturally come down in time.
However, Carr does have weapons to throw at. You could argue this is the best-receiving group of his career. Michael Thomas has finished back-to-back games healthy, which is a huge feat for him given recent setbacks. Chris Olave is a beast in only his 2nd year. The underrated player is Rashid Shaheed, who has now caught 84.1% of his targets since 2022 for a stunning average of 14.5 yards per target. He is a great deep threat.
Running back Jamaal Williams was injured on Monday night and may not be ready this week. Alvin Kamara is still serving the final game of a 3-game suspension, but the Saints got 75 rushing yards from gadget player Taysom Hill, and backup running back Tony Jones scored a pair of touchdowns.
The Saints have the weapons to put up 20-plus points in Green Bay, and with the defense they have, they may not need more than that.
Green Bay’s Injury Woes
The Packers have done a good job of scoring this year without some of their best weapons available, but it remains to be seen if those players return in time for this game.
Christian Watson took part in some drills on Wednesday, which is an encouraging sign as he has yet to play in 2023. Nevertheless, Aaron Jones did not practice on Wednesday, which is not great. Backup A.J. Dillon only had 55 yards on 15 carries in Atlanta as he tried to replace Jones, who is a much better receiver too.
The Pick
It should be a tight game, and things do lean towards Green Bay if Jones and Watson are able to go, but in a week where upsets may be in short supply, you should trust the team with the better defense and more experienced quarterback in this matchup.
If it’s a close game, Carr has 28 4th-quarter comeback wins and 33 game-winning drives in his career. The Packers just blew a 12-point lead in the 4th quarter to Desmond Ridder and the Falcons.
The Saints offer a different challenge, but they have the wide receiver depth and unicorn that is Taysom Hill to cause problems for the Packers. We’ll take New Orleans to start 3-0 at the NFL odds.
NFL Pick: Saints (+110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
