NFL Pick: Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
After a big increase in yards and touchdowns last week, let’s hope the NFL keeps that going in Week 3 despite many of the games having large spreads.
But some of the week’s best-looking games involve Broncos-Dolphins and Chargers-Vikings thanks to this battle between Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson for the title of best wide receiver in 2023. We have props for both and a few more of our favorite player props for Week 3, which you can always find at our top sportsbooks. Feel free to play singles or parlay your favorites.
Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Lumen Field
Adam Thielen – Over/Under Receiving Yards
The Panthers are expecting to start veteran Andy Dalton at quarterback while rookie Bryce Young recovers from an ankle injury suffered Monday night. Against a struggling defense like the Seahawks, this could be a good move for the Carolina passing game, which has really struggled in both games for new coach Frank Reich.
Young has only passed for 299 yards in both games, and he’s thrown 71 passes to get to that number. Young’s 4.2 yards per attempt is the 3rd lowest in NFL history for a quarterback’s first 2 games since 1950. The Panthers have other issues like a weak offensive line and no chemistry with the new skill players, but the quarterback play has also been poor.
At least with Dalton, he can usually step into any system and move the ball. He did a better job for the Saints last year than Jameis Winston did once Dalton took over. In a game against a weak defense, Dalton has a great shot to step in and get Adam Thielen, his top target, going with another good game.
The Betting Pick
Thielen had 54 yards on 9 targets and caught a touchdown against the Saints last week. This is a Seattle defense that was destroyed by Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell in Week 1, and Jared Goff was slicing and dicing them last week with Josh Reynolds having a big game. Thielen’s over is just 35.5 yards in this matchup and it should be one of the best values for your NFL picks this week.
NFL Pick: Adam Thielen Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-120) at Bovada
Denver Broncos vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium
Tyreek Hill – Over/Under Receptions
This may be hard to believe, but Tyreek Hill has never had more than 74 receiving yards in 11 games against Denver in his career. Patrick Mahomes was his quarterback for 8 of those games too, and that includes the 2019 game where Mahomes dislocated his kneecap early. Matt Moore was the quarterback who threw for all of Hill’s 74 yards that night, his most in a game against Denver.
But Hill has been even better in Miami since he joined the team last year. Hill had a career-high 1,710 yards last year and he started 2023 with a 215-yard effort in Los Angeles. Last week, Hill was held to 40 yards in New England, but Bill Belichick usually has good plans for him.
Still, Hill is no stranger to seeing the ball often in this offense. He had 11 games with over 6.5 catches last year in spite of Miami’s quarterback injury problems. But Tagovailoa is healthy, and the Dolphins are home for the first time this season.
The Betting Pick
The real reason to like Hill is that Jaylen Waddle may not play this week as he is still in the concussion protocol, and the Dolphins more than any team need to take that seriously. This passing game has not really established a No. 3 option, so it could mean more targets for Hill.
However, with respect to Hill’s history against Denver, his line for yards is high at 84.5. Instead of trusting him to have his biggest game yet against Denver, let’s go with the over in catches (6.5) as Hill could realistically have a game with 7 catches for 70 yards if the Dolphins feed him enough. The receptions are safer than the yards.
NFL Pick: Tyreek Hill Over 6.5 Receptions (-115) at Bovada
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at US Bank Stadium
Justin Jefferson – Touchdown Scorer
We could be witnessing an epic battle this season for Offensive Player of the Year between wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill. While Hill had the explosive 215-yard game in Week 1 to beat the Chargers, he only had 40 yards last week in New England.
Now it is Jefferson’s turn against this Los Angeles defense that has looked awful defending the pass, and you can be positive this will be a high-scoring, offensive game between Kirk Cousins and Justin Herbert.
Jefferson can become the first player to start a season with 3 straight 150-yard games. He also needs 150 yards to have the most receiving yards through 3 games in a season in NFL history.
The Betting Pick
While Jefferson going over in yards (101.5) is another good NFL pick this week, we are looking at the fact that he has no touchdowns yet despite this yardage. The touchdowns have been going to rookie Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson.
In fact, Jefferson has not scored a touchdown in his last 5 games going back to last season, tied for the longest streak in his career. At least the last time he did that, his streak started with a 2-point conversion. But this is the week that streak ends, and Jefferson finds the end zone against the defense Hill scored twice against in Week 1.
NFL Pick: Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+100) at Bovada
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at Allegiant Stadium
Davante Adams – Over/Under Receiving Yards
We know Davante Adams is pretty much matchup-proof, but one of his worst games with the Raiders was in Pittsburgh last year when he caught 2-of-9 targets for 15 yards. However, it was a very cold night in December, and Derek Carr played poorly for the Raiders.
This game will be indoors, and Jimmy Garoppolo is already in a good rhythm with Adams, who had 84 yards and a touchdown in Buffalo last week. Traditionally, offenses coached by Josh McDaniels have had their way with the Steelers over the years, and this Pittsburgh defense has some big injuries right now with Cameron Heyward and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Heyward is out and Fitzpatrick only got limited practice on Thursday and is questionable.
The Betting Pick
Great route runners have been crushing the Steelers this season. Brandon Aiyuk had 129 yards and 2 touchdowns for the 49ers in Week 1. Amari Cooper wasn’t even supposed to play with an injury on Monday night for Cleveland, and he still had 90 yards on 7 catches. It would have been more if Deshaun Watson had any accuracy on those sideline throws.
Garoppolo will play well enough to get Adams over 73.5 yards, and the favored Raiders have a real shot at home to win this game and drop the Steelers to 1-2.
NFL Pick: Davante Adams Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at State Farm Stadium
Tony Pollard – Player Performance Double
The Cowboys are an 11.5-point road favorite in Arizona and have already outscored opponents 70-10 to start 2-0. The Cardinals were leading in the 4th quarter against Washington and the Giants before losing both games, so maybe they will not be as terrible as expected this season.
However, the Cowboys are much better than Washington and New York, so the Cowboys are going to look better on both sides of the ball in this matchup. Even with the defense losing corner Trevon Diggs to a torn ACL in practice on Thursday, they still are led by Micah Parsons and have great talent to make life hard on Joshua Dobbs and this offense.
The Cardinals were picked apart after halftime by Daniel Jones and the Giants, who scored 31 in a half. The Cowboys have not needed to be great on offense in either game so far with how bad the Giants and Jets were offensively, but Dak Prescott has still been effective in this new-look offense with CeeDee Lamb dominating the New York secondary last week.
The Cowboys should post another big scoring total in this game.
The Betting Pick
Big road spreads can be tricky to cover. The Cowboys just slipped by Dobbs by 14 points in Tennessee last December after the team signed him not many days before the game. They can win this by 14-plus too, but the safer bet is a player performance double with Tony Pollard scoring a touchdown and Dallas simply winning the game.
Pollard scored 2 touchdowns against the Giants in Week 1 but was blanked against the Jets despite 32 touches. He did score on a 2-point conversion, so the Cowboys are still focusing on him near the goal line with Ezekiel Elliott gone.
We’ll see if Arizona can keep it tight with another NFC East team, but the best bet is this is another route and Pollard finds the end zone for Dallas.
NFL Pick: Tony Pollard to Have 1+ Touchdowns and Cowboys to Win (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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