NFL Pick: Falcons (+100) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Probably not many people expected one of Week 2’s 3 games between 1-0 teams would feature the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons. Maybe fewer would have predicted the Falcons would be a slight home underdog, as home-field advantage is still usually worth a couple of points for the spread.
But Green Bay was impressive in a 38-20 win in Chicago despite the hype for the Bears improving this year. The Falcons were also solid at home in a 24-10 win against Carolina with a successful debut for rookie running back Bijan Robinson, the frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Things sure have changed for these teams from the days of Aaron Rodgers dueling with Matt Ryan. Now we see which of Jordan Love and Desmond Ridder can start 2-0 in the NFC this season as these teams eye a return to the playoffs.
The Falcons are a 1-point home underdog with a total of 40.5 points at the top sportsbooks. We have some good reasons for why the Falcons should prevail this Sunday.
Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, September 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Aaron Jones or Bijan Robinson? Don’t Forget About Tyler Allgeier
We mentioned the young quarterbacks in the intro, but these teams really had success through their running backs in Week 1.
Aaron Jones has been a Chicago killer in his career, and he was up to his old tricks on Sunday. While Jones only rushed for 41 yards, he scored 2 total touchdowns and had a couple of short catches that he turned into 86 receiving yards, his 3rd-most receiving yards in any game in his career (playoffs included).
The Falcons only had 48 offensive plays in Week 1, which was the second-fewest in the league. But their running game was effective, with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combining for 131 yards on 25 carries and scoring all 3 of the team’s touchdowns. Robinson broke 3 tackles on his touchdown catch, an elite play that only a few backs in the league would be capable of scoring from.
But the continued use of Allgeier suggests the Falcons will still be a team that is as run-heavy as any in the NFL, and they will do what they can to protect Ridder and make his job easier.
Jordan Love’s Misleading Stat Line
Before Green Bay fans get mad, yes, Jordan Love played well in the first Week 1 start of his career in replacing Aaron Rodgers. He did not have No. 1 wideout Christian Watson, and Love finished 15-of-27 for 245 yards and 3 touchdowns. His 123.2 passer rating was the highest in Week 1 and QBR has Love with the 6th-highest score (73.3) so far.
But it would also be fair to say that Love may have had Week 1’s most misleading stat line among quarterbacks.
For example, look at his 51-yard completion to Jones, the longest pass completion in the NFL in Week 1. It was just a simple play-action bootleg screen pass where the blocking and Jones did all the work against a Chicago defense that ranked last in passing and points allowed last year.
- Thanks in part to those Jones plays, Love averaged 9.9 YAC per completion, the highest average in Week 1.
- Love was charted as being on-target for only 63.0% of his passes in Week 1, the 2nd-lowest rate.
- Love was charted with a bad throw on 25.9% of his passes in Week 1, the 3rd-highest rate.
- Love was only pressured 5 times and had one of Week 1’s lowest pressure rates (16.7%). The Falcons pressured Bryce Young 14 times for a pressure rate of 33.3% (6th highest).
- Love completed 55.6% of his passes while his expected completion rate based on where he threw the ball was 67.8%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points, which was the 4th-lowest game of Week 1.
- Love was not conservative in Week 1, attempting 22.2% of his passes into tight windows, the 3rd-highest game of the week.
*Week 1 data from Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Reference.
In only his 2nd start, Love showed some flaws as you would expect from a young quarterback. It was a good outing, but we also are very used to seeing Green Bay beat the Bears, who still look suspect on defense.
Atlanta’s New Defense
The first game for new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen went well with this makeshift defense that brought in veteran free agents to rebuild 75% of the defensive line. But it was safety Jessie Bates who had the biggest impact with a pair of interceptions off rookie quarterback Bryce Young.
Love is not a rookie, but he does have inexperience going against him. He also does not have much tape on this particular Atlanta defense to study with a new coordinator and so many new pieces.
If Love is going to be inaccurate and force as many passes into tight windows as he did last week, the Falcons can certainly take advantage of that at home. Atlanta forced the Panthers into 3 turnovers and held them to 10 points last week.
Falcons Have Weapons, Packers Have Hamstring Issues
If Love was deemed aggressive in Week 1, Desmond Ridder was the definition of conservative. He completed 15-of-18 passes, but that does not sound so impressive when you consider he gained 115 yards, averaged 3.0 air yards per target, and even completed a pass to himself for a 6-yard loss on a deflection.
It would be good for Atlanta to do more in the passing game as No. 1 wide receiver Drake London had no catches. Tight end Kyle Pitts only had 2 catches, or 1 more than Ridder himself. A third of Ridder’s pass attempts went to Robinson.
We know the Falcons want to run the ball, but they will have to throw more than they did in Week 1 if they want to be a playoff team. The Falcons were also 2-of-10 on 3rd down in Week 1, so that needs to get better this week.
But Atlanta has weapons to use. The Packers have question marks with hamstring injuries to Christian Watson and Aaron Jones. Watson already missed Week 1 but is optimistic about returning this week. Jones did not practice Wednesday. Those situations should be monitored going into Sunday. The Packers are just not that explosive on offense if they do not have Watson and Jones.
The Pick
The Falcons should get more out of the passing game and convert a higher rate of 3rd downs this week. The Packers should regress with their YAC plays and they are no longer playing Chicago, a team they often sweep.
It could be an exciting game where both teams score into the 20s. But another reason to like Atlanta is that the conservative play of Ridder and the run-heavy approach could lead to the Falcons winning the turnover battle, which feels crucial in a matchup between teams like this.
Back the Falcons to move to 2-0 at home at +100 betting odds.
NFL Pick: Falcons ML (+100) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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