We went 2-1 in NFL Week 17, moving our total to 19-1-21 and +2.4 profits, totalling just under a 5% ROI.
Entering the final week, some teams are highly motivated to secure playoff spots, while others, playing only for draft position, have little to play for.
When consulting the live player prop odds, remember to account for how team motivation could potentially influence player performance and your betting confidence.
NFL Prop Bets Week 18 At-a-Glance
Because motivation is key this week, we focused our three picks on games featuring teams with something significant at stake.
We begin by returning to a familiar strategy: trusting a Tampa Bay running back, despite his current price.
Follow in with the battle of the NFC West as the Seattle Seahawks visit San Francisco, and we are trusting the Seahawks defnce.
Finally, the Ravens are poised to finish their divisional season on a high note, and their star running back will be central to that effort.
Bucs’ Sean Tucker (Anytime Touchdown +215)
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – January 3, 4:30 PM ET
Once again, Sean Tucker represents value this week in a game the Tampa Bay Buccaneers must win. Yes, he was our only loser last week, but that has kept his price at +215, the highest on the odds boards.
Tucker was quieter last week, but in this must-win, expect him to see more action.
Tucker has scored 7 touchdowns in 13 games this season, in which he started and played significant snaps. He saw minimal carries in three other games, including last week, when his involvement dropped. The price on him to score a touchdown this week reflects that his previous production offers excellent value this week.
49ers’ Jauan Jennings (Under 44.5 Receiving Yards -110)
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers – January 3, 8:00 PM ET
Facing the best defence in football, last week’s hero, the 49ers’ wide receiver Jauan Jennings‘ receiving yards look a little on the high side.
Currently, 44.5 is the number at BetOnline, and that is the suggested spot to go under, given that this match shapes up as a trappy encounter between a brilliant offense and an outstanding defense, where receiving yards will be harder to come by.
On recent averages and levels, Jennings would have been a more efficient number at 39.5, so in theory, the line could be approximately 10% higher than my projections. The fact that star quarterback Brock Purdy’s throwing arm will be under more pressure than usual should help our cause.
Let’s not forget that before last week’s final touchdown and 38-yard pass to Jennings, the twenty-eight-year-old had played little or no part in the game, with only one other reception.
Ravens’ Derrick Henry (Anytime Touchdown -148)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – January 4, 8:20 PM ET
Once again, the odds highlight Bovada for the “anytime touchdown” market. Here, Baltimore Ravens star running back Derrick Henry is favored to score a touchdown.
Regardless of whether Lamar Jackson or Snoop Huntley is at quarterback for the Ravens, Derrick Henry remains a critical part of their offense. The Ravens’ run-heavy approach thrived last week against the Packers, with Henry scoring four rushing touchdowns and bringing his season total to 16 in 17 games. This stat highlights why Henry is favoured to find the end zone again.
Henry is a solid touchdown pick this week. The divisional decider matters, and his team leans on him in big moments.
Week 18 Player Props: Key Takeaways
Top pick for Week 18: Sean Tucker to score a touchdown for Tampa Bay, who must win against Carolina.
Before betting, activate your sportsbook account, check injuries, weather, and line moves, and seek value in NFL props. Start making informed bets now.
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
