I fondly recall the days when a 2-1 ATS week was rather humdrum. Well, now I’m looking at last week’s record, where we had a pair of 3-unit ATS winners with the Browns and Bengals, followed by a disappointing 4-unit money-burner with the Lions, like I would a sizzling porterhouse fresh out of the oven at Ruth’s Chris.
We picked up 1.62 units on Sunday, but a win is a win, and in this season of unforgiving bad beats and poor decisions, I’ll happily take it. I knew the Bills were primed for a trap game against the woeful Browns, but I couldn’t bet more than three units because, well, they’re the Browns.
Hey, it’s a start, and if you want to check out BMR’s proprietary algorithm and this week’s best NFL picks, then be my guest.
Let’s get to our NFL picks Week 17 and try to shovel out a little bit at a time.
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 19-31 ATS (-58.34 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
NFL Picks Week 17 At-a-Glance
This week’s NFL picks are heavily focused on the underdogs.
I realize there are teams with everything to gain, while others are more concerned with making vacation plans, but that scenario does not work out as neatly as you would expect.
Thus, my skepticism that one team will come out full of piss and vinegar while the other will roll over.
My NFL picks for Week 17 are based on the presumption that the public will be buying into this scenario, which means the oddsmakers will skew the numbers for the sheeple looking to bet a bundle on the teams that need a win.
Let’s get to it and go hunting for value this week.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans (+3 buying a ½ point)
Sunday, December 28 – 01:00 PM ET
The Saints are 5-10, winners of their last three, and all of a sudden, the nerdy chick has decided to wear a crown, don a gown, and call herself the prom queen. Look, New Orleans is not a good team despite their current three-game heater with wins over the Bucs, Panthers, and the hapless Jets.
Similarly, the Titans are far from NFL royalty themselves, sporting a 3-12 mark, but Tennessee has garnered a little bit of mojo down the stretch as well, winning two of their last three, with the most recent a 26-9 victory over the beleaguered and beat-up Kansas City Chiefs.
For those who are into meaningless trends, the Saints and Titans have alternated wins and losses against each other dating back to 2007. If the pattern holds, the Titans will emerge victorious, as the Saints won the last meeting, 16-15, in September 2023.
The Titans’ rookie QB and No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 draft, Cam Ward, is finding his bearings. He’s tossed six touchdowns and just one interception over the last three games. Not impressed? Okay, that’s fair, but consider he hadn’t thrown more than one touchdown all season until three weeks ago, and now he’s made a habit of it.
I believe the Titans will win this one outright, but if I’m wrong, I refuse to lose by a hook, which is why I’m buying a half point and paying the extra vig over at Heritage.
Expert Pick: Tennessee Titans +3 on the buy (-118) for 3 units at Heritage
Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers (+7)
Sunday, December 28 – 01:00 PM ET
A river doesn’t cut rock because of its strength but because of its persistence—unfortunately, I’m a lake.
But I’m beginning to believe that Panthers’ quarterback, Bryce Young, is the Nile. Yes, my perspective concerning the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is changing like the tide (did you see what I did there?).
Expectations for high lottery picks are immense, often unfair—check that, almost always unfair. However, Young is feeling it, and he has had a pair of three-touchdown performances over his last five games in which the Cats have gone 3-2, bringing their record to an astounding 8-7 on the year and 9-6 against the all-important number.
Last week, Carolina beat the Bucs, 23-20, and covered as three-point home hounds and cashed at +135 on the moneyline for all of you high-risk bettors. But can this group of young upstarts do it again against a Seattle team that is on a five-game winning streak?
Well, I’m not so sure, but the Panthers are 5-2 SU and ATS at home, and getting a full touchdown head start seems a bit steep in my opinion if you’re leaning towards betting the Seahawks.
The Seahawks have failed to cover in their last two games against the Colts and Rams. Speaking of the latter, that was a game for divisional supremacy that they should never have won. It seems to me like Seattle is due for a letdown in this spot.
Let’s back the Cats at Bookmaker.
Expert Pick: Carolina Panthers +7 (-102) for 3 units at Bookmaker
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (+7)
Sunday, December 28 – 01:00 PM ET
The Jags are America’s darlings, having won and covered in their last six straight games. One of the victims of this run happens to be their opponent this week. On December 7th, a day that will live in infamy, the Jaguars handed the Colts a 36-19 loss in Jacksonville.
But the venue has changed, and so too has the Colts quarterback.
Indianapolis not only lost the game, but they also lost their quarterback in that contest when Daniel Jones tore his Achilles in the second quarter. Now, I am not saying Phillip Rivers is the man he used to be between the hashmarks, but even at 44, he’s better than most backups.
The Jags are coming off an enormous win over the Broncos, so you will excuse them if they’re overlooking Indianapolis in this one. Let’s back Old Man Rivers and the Colts at BetOnline, where they are one of the only books giving us +7, not +6 ½, which is why it pays to shop around!
Let’s grab the touchdown and watch the hometown Colts hang and bang within the generous margins.
Expert Pick: Indianapolis Colts +7 (-125) for 4 units at BetOnline
The Woodman’s Picks (11-5 ATS)
The Woodman has been on a heater all season long, but last week he put his faith in Old Man Rivers, and the 44-year-old retiree thrust his fist in the air and yelled, “Get off my lawn!”
That’s right, the Colts got steamrolled by the 49ers, 48-27, and Phillip Rivers was pretty damn good for a middle-aged dude, throwing for 277 yards, two TDs, and a pick.
However, his defense had no answer for the riddle that was Brock Purdy (5 touchdown passes) and the San Francisco offense.
Well, losses happen, but the Woodman is pivoting mightily this week and eschewing his penchant for prodigious pups and instead backing the Patriots, laying a boatload on the road against the Jets. Bet the farm!
The Woodman’s Week 17 NFL Pick: Patriots -13 ½ (-110) at Bookmaker
Place your NFL Week 17 Bets Now
The NFL picks for Week 17 I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads you see written here on the Titans, Panthers, and Colts games may not be around by gametime.
That’s why you must obtain the sharpest line available, so make sure your account is funded and ready to go!
Find the Best NFL Odds at Offshore Sportsbooks
To make the most of our NFL picks for Week 17, shop around for the sharpest lines available at the best offshore sportsbooks. Getting the best price can turn a loss into a win over the long season.
For this week’s top picks, take a look at the NFL odds at Bookmaker, Bovada, and Heritage Sports. Having access to multiple books ensures you’re getting the best possible number, and in this game, every half-point counts.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
