Top NFL Pick: Chargers Under 14.5 Points (-120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL is going with an AFC-only lineup for Saturday in Week 16. Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert won’t be playing, but we are more interested in seeing how this Jake Browning run plays out in Cincinnati, and if the Bills can rebound from a 6-6 start to making the playoffs after impressive wins over the Chiefs and Cowboys.
We made our top pick for both games on Saturday based on the best NFL odds, and you can always find them at our main offshore sportsbooks.
Could This Be Mike Tomlin’s Final Home Game?
It sounds crazy, but this could be the final home game of Mike Tomlin’s career should the Steelers continue to freefall from a 7-4 start and lose out. The standard has never been lower, and it has gotten to the point where fans are waiting to see No. 3 quarterback Mason Rudolph, the quarterback they were ready to run out of town in 2019.
Meanwhile, the Bengals appear to have 2 quarterbacks better than any on the Pittsburgh roster after another big 300-yard game and comeback win from Jake Browning. But the only team to beat Browing as a starter was Pittsburgh. Can this division rivalry spark another upset?
The Steelers are a 2.5-point home underdog with a total of 38.5 points. We are looking at the spread.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Saturday, December 23, 2023 – 04:30 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium
Week 12 Recap: Steelers 16, Bengals 10
The Steelers infamously never had 400 yards of offense in any game under offensive coordinator Matt Canada since 2021. Immediately after firing him in Week 12, the Steelers had 421 yards against the Bengals in a 16-10 win.
Kenny Pickett passed for 278 yards, his 2nd-highest total in a game in his career, and he played arguably his best quarter in the 1st. But thanks to a couple of bad calls, a dropped touchdown by Diontae Johnson, and a fumble by Jaylen Warren, the Steelers came out of that quarter without any points, and they only had 3 points at halftime.
The Steelers finished with 16 points, but it was a little disappointing given the 421 yards. But there were at least encouraging signs with the offense in the 1st game after Canada was fired.
As for the Bengals, it was Jake Browning’s 1st start after the team found out Joe Burrow would miss the rest of the year with a wrist injury. Browning was not terrible, but he got lucky on a few deflected passes that were caught instead of intercepted. He finished 19-of-26 for 227 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, and took 4 sacks as he looked a bit indecisive due to his lack of experience.
Oddly, the Bengals gave Browning almost no help from the running game, as Joe Mixon had 8 carries for 16 yards. Browning also did not have his full arsenal of weapons, as Tee Higgins did not play in that game.
What Changes This Time?
The Steelers are likely going with Mason Rudolph at quarterback this time, as Mitch Trubisky just wasn’t cutting it. Rudolph is 5-4-1 as a starter in his career and still has more touchdown passes (16) than Pickett (13) has in his career.
But pretending Rudolph is the solution would be silly. In the 2019 season, when he started most of the games in his career, Rudolph’s 36.2 QBR ranked dead last in the NFL. In his last start in 2021 against the Lions, he only got a 16-16 tie out of it for the heavily favored Steelers at home.
You could also argue the Steelers have gotten worse on offense since Canada was fired. In the last 16 quarters without Canada, the Steelers have not scored more than 8 points in any quarter, and they are averaging 14.3 points per game. The problems are not going to go away overnight with this offense.
As for the Bengals, Browning has only gotten better since that initial start, and you could say the offense is thriving with him, scoring 34 points in back-to-back wins over the Jaguars and Colts while coming back to win 27-24 in overtime against Minnesota’s unique defense last week.
Browning looks good with accuracy and enough mobility. He also has been very productive with 275 yards in 3 straight games, and he is getting rid of the ball faster as he gains experience. He could also have his full complement of weapons back as Ja’Marr Chase has a chance to return after getting knocked out of Saturday’s win over Minnesota.
The Steelers have not looked good defensively in recent weeks against Kyler Murray, Bailey Zappe, and Gardner Minshew. Zappe and Minshew both threw 3 touchdowns against them, and the secondary has been ravaged by injuries, especially at safety.
The Pick
The Bengals have shown some cracks on defense, but coordinator Lou Anarumo has been one of the best at scheming up takeaways in big spots, and the Steelers have been bad with ball security without Pickett. Cincinnati has the better quarterback, the better skill players, and the recent success against Pittsburgh to think they can go into this building and win this game outright.
Tomlin has always found a way to rally the troops and finish with a winning record, but this is the worst things have ever looked during his time in Pittsburgh. This could be the end of that streak if the Steelers don’t start playing way better. Going with Rudolph is unlikely to bring about that change.
NFL Pick: Bengals -2.5 (-115) at Bovada
Bills Won’t Need 63 Points in LA
If there was ever a “team you don’t want to play in the playoffs” type of team, the 2023 Bills would be it with their past success, veteran leadership, and ability to play elite football on both sides of the ball. Basically, a nightmare opponent for a Chargers team that lost Justin Herbert to a broken finger and just fired coach Brandon Staley after allowing the Raiders to score 63 points.
The Chargers are an 11.5-point home underdog with a total of 42.5 points. We are looking at their team total (over/under 14.5 points).
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Saturday, December 23, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Chargers Are a Lost Cause Without Justin Herbert
The Chargers were in a bad way even before Justin Herbert was injured and lost for the season. The Chargers had just wrapped up a 3-game streak where they failed to score more than 10 points, something the team had not done since 1997. That means not even the Ryan Leaf-era Chargers did that.
It looked like it might continue in Vegas, as the Chargers could not protect the ball, losing 4 fumbles and throwing a pick-6. It was 63-7 in the 4th quarter before Easton Stick, in a terrible situation for his 1st start, threw another touchdown to end the 10-point streak. He threw another one too to finish with 3 touchdowns and 21 points, but it would be an understatement to say the Raiders let up a bit after it was 63-7.
The Bills are not going to need that many points to win this one, but they sure have the ability to make life miserable for Stick again.
Buffalo’s Great Defensive Performances
Despite injuries to key players such as Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, the Bills have turned in some great defensive performances this year, and they are still No. 4 in points allowed and No. 3 in takeaways (24).
The Bills have already held 5 opponents to 10 points or fewer this year. None of those performances were more impressive than the 31-10 win over Dallas last week. Dak Prescott was the leading MVP candidate, and they held him under 100 passing yards deep into the 4th quarter before he hit some plays in garbage time for Dallas’ only touchdown in the game. The Cowboys were scoring a league-high 32 points per game and barely finished with 10 that day.
Maybe the rain helped the Bills at home, and the conditions will likely be ideal in Los Angeles this week. But the lack of experience and talent in the Chargers’ locker room right now is troubling, and they also are going to adjust to firing coach Brandon Staley. The Bills are catching this team at an ideal time, as things are a mess with Allen injured, Mike Williams long gone with a torn ACL, and rookie Quentin Johnston has been a major disappointment.
The Pick
Austin Ekeler was held to 9 yards on 5 carries last week. We’re not saying the Bills are going to be that ridiculously dominant this week, but the Chargers are in a real rough spot. With Buffalo barely turning the ball over since the coordinator change, those short fields to help the Chargers score points should not be there.
We’ll trust the Buffalo defense to deliver another gem and hold Stick under 14.5 points.
NFL Pick: Chargers Under 14.5 Points (-120) at Bovada
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