Top NFL Pick: Over 51 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The NFL’s Week 16 schedule has a Sunday lineup headlined by the clash between the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins, teams that are in need of quality wins to silence the critics. We are also looking at Green Bay’s struggling defense getting a game with the Panthers, and the Jaguars and Buccaneers appear to be heading in opposite directions late in the season.
We picked through the NFL computer predictions at Bookmakers Review and singled out our top spreads or totals for your Week 16 bets at your favorite offshore sportsbooks.
Can Bryce Young Step Up vs. Green Bay Defense?
The Carolina Panthers finally won another game against Atlanta last week to improve their record to 2-12. But we have only seen the Panthers score more than 15 points once in the 7 games since their bye week. Can we get more offense when they play the Packers, who have been shredded by Tommy DeVito and Baker Mayfield the last 2 weeks?
The Packers are a 5-point road favorite with a total of 36.5 points. We are looking at the total.
Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium
Carolina’s Opportunity
The last 5 games are a good story for why most Green Bay fans want defensive coordinator Joe Barry gone for next season:
- Chargers: Justin Herbert had arguably the game of his career, but his teammates had so many killer drops to take many points off the board in a 23-20 loss for Los Angeles.
- Lions: It was a very solid game for the Green Bay defense in forcing Jared Goff to cough up 3 fumbles, but the Lions did have 464 yards and were 1-for-5 on 4th down on a rough day.
- Chiefs: The defense did a solid job against Patrick Mahomes, but they were also very lucky to not get called for huge defensive pass interference penalties while guarding Marquez Valdes-Scantling on a deep ball and then pushing Travis Kelce on the game-ending Hail Mary attempt.
- Giants: The Packers allowed Tommy DeVito to become the first quarterback ever to complete 80% of his passes, rush for 70 yards, take 0 sacks, and throw 0 interceptions in a game. Berry’s defense also allowed a very similar game (with 1 interception) to Justin Fields in 2022.
- Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield threw for 381 yards and 4 touchdowns in registering the first perfect passer rating game (158.3) at Lambeau Field.
If the defense isn’t getting shredded, they are relying heavily on the opponent to have drops, 4th-down miscues, or for the referees to swallow their whistles on big plays. This is not good news for the defense going forward.
Bryce Young has been brutal in his rookie year for Carolina, but if he uses his mobility properly and Adam Thielen shows up to play against a Green Bay defense he is used to playing, then it could be a solid game for Carolina. The Panthers may actually score 17 points again.
Jordan Love Has Been Steady
Jordan Love was getting a ton of praise during Green Bay’s 3-game winning streak. Not much has been said during this 2-game losing skid, but Love was not bad in those games either. He just watched his defense collapse.
But Love has led the Packers to at least 20 points in 5 straight games, and this young offense continues to show growth and improvement as the season goes on. Carolina’s defense has been lousy this year, only taking advantage of the rain and some awful turnovers by Atlanta last week in a 9-7 win.
But the Panthers are 29th in points allowed this year. It would be surprising if the Packers didn’t score well into the 20s in this matchup. Carolina has little pass rush to speak of with a league-low 20 sacks.
The Pick
We are going to trust Joe Barry’s defense to add to its underwhelming legacy and see the best Bryce Young game in several weeks, coming off the big upset win over Atlanta. We also think Love will do well in leading the offense, and the game should do just enough to hit the over for your NFL picks.
Score Prediction: Packers 22 – Panthers 17
NFL Pick: Over 36.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Will Jacksonville Stop Its Losing Streak?
We have a good battle of playoff hopefuls from Florida when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6). Both teams are hoping to repeat as division champions, but someone is taking another loss here. The Jaguars have already lost 3 games in a row while the Buccaneers are on a 3-game winning streak behind Baker Mayfield.
The Jaguars are a 1-point road underdog with a total of 43 points. We are focusing on the spread.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
What Are Jacksonville’s Issues?
The Jaguars are struggling for a few reasons right now:
- Trevor Lawrence’s injury scare against Cincinnati did not help, but he misses wide receiver Christian Kirk more than anything. That injury was a big loss as Kirk is such a reliable chain mover and the receiver Lawrence has his best chemistry with.
- The run blocking has underwhelmed all season as Travis Etienne just has little room to work with on the ground. The Jaguars still rank 30th in yards per carry this year.
- Bad blocking also expands to screen plays, something the Jaguars run often and get almost nothing out of.
The Jaguars simply lack the firepower to hang with the elite teams, which is why we’ve seen them only score 9 points against the Chiefs, 3 points against the 49ers, and 7 points against the Ravens. All those games were at home too.
Tampa’s Weird Home-Road Split
You might think the Buccaneers would be happy to have this game at home, but that really hasn’t been the case this year. The Buccaneers have scored at least 20 points on offense in 6 road games this year, something they did exactly 0 times in 2022 with Tom Brady at quarterback. But in home games, the Bucs have only hit 20 points in 3-of-6 games.
Tampa’s 3 worst scoring outputs of the season were all at home against teams like the Lions (lost 20-6), Eagles (lost 25-11), and Falcons (lost 16-13).
Baker Mayfield’s stats also back it up, as he has thrown 18 touchdowns to 3 interceptions on the road this year, compared to 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions at home. What makes this even weirder is that all 3 of Mike Evans’ 100-yard receiving games have been at home this year. But Mayfield is consistently playing much better on the road in 2023.
Turnovers have not been a big issue for Baker, surprisingly, in Tampa. But the Jacksonville defense is tied with San Francisco with a league-high 25 takeaways. Forcing Baker into some mistakes would be one of the easiest ways to win this matchup. The Jaguars also need to clean up their act after missing 2 field goals and Lawrence lost a fumble with no one touching him when the team was in scoring range.
The Pick
The computer pick returned an equal score , so this projects to be one of the tightest games of the year. But we just have a belief that the Jaguars have been close to figuring things out and will stop the bleeding with the losing streak and find a way to win this game. Mayfield can continue his home-game odyssey this year by struggling after his biggest game of the year in Green Bay.
But as we just looked at above in the other game with the Packers and Joe Barry’s defense, that unit is struggling. The Jaguars desperately need a win and should get the job done in this matchup.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 22 – Buccaneers 22
NFL Pick: Jaguars +1 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Cowboys and Dolphins Have Some Similarities
The Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins have been hearing it all season that they don’t beat the good teams. Well, someone should get a win here, but the Dolphins do have an edge in playing at home. The Cowboys played awful football in Buffalo last week, but at least the weather should be much nicer this time around.
The Dolphins are a 1.5-point home favorite with a total of 51 points. We have been burned before in these big matchups involving these teams this year, but we are looking at the over again.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
The Cowboys Must Step Up
If you go back to coach Mike McCarthy’s tenure with Green Bay, his teams fared poorly against physical teams that would punch his team in the mouth, and they couldn’t recover cause they were a front-running team that always needed a good start.
Think of how the Packers routinely lost big games to the Giants, 49ers, and Seahawks. The Cowboys are doing similar things with the 49ers having their number, and they also have fared poorly on the road against the Eagles. Last week, it was Buffalo punching Dallas in the mouth early, and the Bills ran all over them with James Cook on their way to a 31-10 win.
But the Dolphins may be more in line with the kind of team the Cowboys will look good against, especially if this turns into a track meet. There is no doubt Dallas performs much better at home when you can hear Dak Prescott’s “yeah, here we go !” cadence so clearly than you will on the road. But that does not mean Dallas is incapable of scoring away from home. They just have to execute better as they looked uncertain of how to handle the Bills in the rain last week.
Dallas rarely stacks bad games under McCarthy. The Cowboys are a league-best 12-1 ATS after a loss since 2021. Look for Prescott to get his receivers involved early in the matchup, and for the team to make up for that dud last week.
Is Tyreek Hill Back?
It sounds like Tyreek Hill was a true game-time decision last week, a good sign he will be able to go this week. The Dolphins did not need him to beat the Jets 30-0 as Jaylen Waddle dominated, but getting back the best receiver in the game right now is a huge bonus.
The Cowboys lost Trevon Diggs to a torn ACL and lack that shutdown corner. We’ve seen DaRon Bland get smoked by D.K. Metcalf in a big matchup earlier this season. Hill’s speed is a whole different beast to deal with and we know he’ll want to have a huge game to get back on track for 2,000 receiving yards with 3 games to go.
The Dolphins also have that potentially lethal running game with Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. They didn’t have much running room against the Jets last week, but they have to love the tape of how James Cook sliced and diced this run defense in Buffalo. Whether it’s by air or ground, the Dolphins have the speed to attack a talented Dallas defense and score a fair number of points in this one.
The Pick
Can we please get a fun shootout again? These big matchups have been duds lately, but the computer score here loves a big total with 61 points, a full 10 points above the line. It may not get that high, but we love the idea of Dallas bouncing back in good weather against a defense that has not been tested much this year, and the Dolphins in turn can get a big game from their stars against Dallas.
It should be a good one, but we will side with the over before we touch the spread.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 33 – Cowboys 28
NFL Pick: Over 51 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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